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The eternal dispute between fans of matanalysis and astrology )) judging by the name of the thread astrologers are not here ).
>> Brownian processes have almost nothing to do with the market.
Mmm... You tell that to Black-Scholes-Merton, the Nobel laureates, and the very, very many traders who calculate market volatility based on the option value of an instrument and the formula of the aforementioned economists, not on empirical variance.
Guys, forex trading is all about making and testing statistical hypotheses from start to finish. And it's for series that change significantly over time... Yes, you can put a couple of indices in the MT4 window and even win for a while. But sooner or later one will have to either dump everything or adjust to the changing market.
P.S. Although, to be honest, I'm more of a proponent of using the most modern mathematical methods in trading, especially in recent times... But I accept mathematics in trade only in such doses that justify its effectiveness. If something mathematically sophisticated increases profitability by a measly 10%, then it's inadequate when applied to the market.
Well, as for strong maths... check out Hendrik's expert, second in the championship. I don't see any strong maths there... Ordinary human logic with simple turkeys and arithmetic on the level of "more-less". I am by no means belittling the value of this expert, but, right, the maths there is very simple...
By the way, lately I have been very interested in mathematics from J. Eulers (see TASC 2000).
About the robots playing here, I think it's all about good optimisation before the start of the championship and some luck. Hendrick's Phoenix, for example, has been steadily losing. By the way, it has a check in its code that USDJPY is being traded. If the robot is based on something else, it is not allowed to trade. And these things don't live long... So I strongly suspect that if the Championship lasted for 3 years instead of 3 months the winner would not be the one who makes more profit but the one who loses the least. Unfortunately, I was convinced more than once, that simple ideas do not work on Forex... At least not for a long time.
J. Ehlers? Sorry, I hadn't heard... What does he do? I've been nailed lately by the idea of learning and adapting fundamentally simple systems... A sort of tinkering with history as we go along.
J. Eilers? I'm sorry, I hadn't heard... What does he do? I've been nailed lately by the idea of learning and adapting fundamentally simple systems... A kind of tinkering with history as we go along.
2 eugenk1: Well, it seems that adjusting to the story on the fly is just what any trader dreams of, isn't it?