Global recession over the end of Moore's Law - page 2
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The power consumption of the logic circuit element is calculated using the formula:
P = f*C*V^2
where f is the frequency, C is the load capacitance (input capacitance of the next element + capacitance of the metal connection), V is the supply voltage. Frequency has stopped increasing in the last 5-10 years, 2-3GHz. Smaller transistor size led to lower load capacitance (lower input transistor capacitance and shorter connections between transistors) and lower supply voltage. When I started in the industry the supply voltage was 5V, then 3V, 1.5V, 1V and now 0.5V. Every new generation of silicon technology now leads to a voltage reduction of 0.1-0.2V. When Moore's law stops, the power stops decreasing and the number of cores stops growing.
Few people are aware of the fact that all integrated circuit technology was developed by Intel. Every company in the world is copying Intel. They invented FinFET 10 years ago and took all these 10 years to implement it into production. My friends at Intel tell me they have no more ideas. Our company is funding research at various universities but so far there is no response. The world is on the verge of some pretty dire consequences of the end of Moore's law. In difficult economic times, world wars usually occur, leading to a surge of investment by states in new technologies and the subsequent development of those technologies for peaceful purposes. This was the case during WWII - Alan Turing invented the computer to decode German military messages. 25-30 years ago, as a consequence of the computer revolution, there was a need to network computers and the internet was born. In the last 10 years, the Internet has essentially changed little. Today smartphones can connect to the Internet at almost the same speed as a home computer. I can't imagine what new technology will take the place of computers and the internet and allow worldwide economic growth to continue.
The limit will come when a brain analogue is developed, but in the meantime there is room for improvement.
I agree 100%, I still, before any forex, wrote on rsdn.ru around 2002, guys, get ready for multi-threaded programming, there will be no more speed increase. Intel was sending out roadmaps at the time that it would soon break 15GHz, and I know that consumption is the square of speed in the general case.
Now the number of cores is also at the limit, although most programmers never learned to think in parallel.
There has to be a qualitative shift, silicon is exhausted
I read somewhere that an American institute created a processor with 1000 cores but no interaction with memory.
again without a link... Alexei, that's not interesting.
I'm not used to collecting links to temporary files.
nothing is everlasting, life is temporary - we're all going to die someday
In the late 60s I translated an article for TIIER magazine about the super computer Illiot-4: 256 quadrants, each quadrant of 256 processors, each with its own memory. At that time this project had not been fully implemented. I don't know if it had been implemented at all.
I started running around trying to find out what tasks this computer could do apart from the one mentioned in the article - weather forecasting.
I found it in the Institute of Control Problems of the USSR Academy of Sciences - a classmate of mine did his internship there. The problem is as follows. A dome standing with its edge on the foundation. The forces on the foundation are known. There will be forces at any point of the dome. It is a diphur system. It quickly became clear that this super computer could not solve this problem of practical value in a reasonable time.
At the institute in question, solving this problem was a chore. The solution time was a few seconds. The computer was analogue.
PS.
When I was a student, there was a digital computer course and an analogue computer course. Comparing these two qualitatively different computing devices in terms of speed is impossible in principle. In analogue computer, the time to solve a problem of any computational complexity is the time of electrical transient. But such a computer is specialized unlike a digital one.
PSPC.
Moore is just advertising his brainchild and does not understand the progress of science at all, must be.
СанСаныч Фоменко:
Moore is just advertising his brainchild and doesn't understand anything about the progress of science.
The world is on the brink of the rather dire consequences of the end of Moore's Law. In difficult economic times, world wars usually occur, leading to a surge of investment by states in new technologies and the subsequent development of those technologies for peaceful purposes.
Ehh, Moore doesn't have SanSanych as a friend, no one to explain how wrong he is, no one to tell him how the world works
Yeah, what about me.
My classmates went to artillery school after school ('65). Their computers were much more powerful than what I was dealing with. And they solved problems I never dreamed of.
And Moore is talking about a specific thing: a digital machine, and even with a common bus, it has become very widespread in the population. But the world is a much more diverse place. What about computers in industry, in the military...?