FOREX - Trends, Forecasts and Implications 2015(continued) - page 407
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So tomorrow it could also be 1.3100?)))
Friday expiry on options, but what the Mighty's acolytes do not understand, the situation does not change, support is 5550 and the hai is 58)
Are there any statistics on how many options are usually exercised as a percentage? And what kind of options are they usually - it is interesting to see the distribution by price movement.
Your trouble is that you are playing, not working. If mt is enough to trade, then what is there to talk about.
Your and Guru's remarks yesterday about photoshop, plums. You do not even believe that it is possible to make money at all, so everything is clear with your "trading", Lizyukova street to clean)))).
Picture with volumes in the studio)) Still, I will not tell - what and how)))
One expression I liked: Sir, do you like this girl? The answer - I'll be dancing with her tonight))))
Play only here and now and maximum evening, don't get confused, old one.
A picture with volumes in the studio)) I won't tell you what and how anyway)))
One sentence I liked: Sir, do you like this girl? Answer - I'll be dancing with her tonight)))
Play only here and now and maximum evening, don't get confused, old one.
Don't you want me to bring the money into the studio?)
There's nothing more to tell, you told me everything in the morning)))
Can I get you some money in the studio?)
I don't need to tell you any more, you told me everything this morning)))
Did I ask for pennies?
You're a rascal, aren't you?) And I am more than sure that you will not show any volumes or projections. Why - you already know yourself, because my forecast took place earlier)
Are there any statistics on how many options are usually exercised as a percentage? And what kind of options are they usually - it is interesting to see the distribution by price movement.
18.10.2011 06:21 #98
donetz
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In option week it is simply not profitable to fly away. I.e., we are only talking about the option week - the last one before expiry. What happens outside of that week has nothing to do with these pricks. The price of an instrument at the time of expiry should, in theory, minimise the payout. From here on it is as easy as pie.
How does the trading week usually go? We go one way, then the other, and somewhere in between we close. The sense of such movements is simple - increasing profits and decreasing expenses by the time of expiry. The idea that can be theoretically tested is as follows:
Assume that the bigwigs ruling the market are sellers of options (both puts and calls at the same time). These options are bought by hedgers during the life of the option contract (they are the ones who create liquidity in options, which is historically low). To maximize the profit of the hedgers, they must make an effort in the market to close the options at a price that minimizes the total payout on the sum of the calls and puts in the money. And in doing so, you can still make some extra money. You can't manipulate the market for long, but you can in the short term. That's why it's difficult to work in an expirational week, for it is strongly manipulated.
At the entry to the expirational week we calculate the minimum payout point and assume that it won't change during the week because it was accumulated for a long time by hedgers' purchases and there is no reason to pay them more.
Then a pullback in one direction, for example, downwards. Here the fearful hedgers additionally buy higher-priced puts, which will not be exercised, i.e. they will expire without money. This will increase the profit of the options sellers by the amount of premium on these additional puts sold into the expiry week, and, in addition, the sellers will buy cheaper calls (speculative buyers in this situation), which will be exercised, i.e., put in the money (i.e., with a strike below the minimum payout to put in the money at expiration time).
After that, a spurt in the opposite direction - selling as much as possible higher-priced calls to hedgers, which were purchased on the downward spurt, the hedgers respectively get into calls, which also will not be executed. You can buy more cheaper puts with a strike higher than the minimum payout point to get in the money at the time of execution.
And the last part is a return to the minimum payout point at the time of expiration, where the hedgers are paid the minimum in-the-money options in the total amount, and the remaining options, bought by the big guys on the spurt, are expired at a profit.
That's it, the game is done. Expense is minimised, because we are at the point with the minimum payout; income is maximised: on the one hand, through speculative reselling of additional cheap options purchased on the edges of the pulls in both directions (in this case, cheap calls were purchased on the pull down, and as many of them as possible were sold on the pull up, and what remains was expired in the money), on the other hand, through speculative additional options purchased on the edges (below calls, above puts) and taking them out in the money at expiration time.
From next week, it's a different game, with nothing to do with options until the next expiry week.
The statistics is that they try to expire at the point of least payout to both parties.
Interesting.
However, I wonder what percentage of options are exercised - since an option is a right to buy/sell currency, not an obligation.
By the way, exactly currency or currency futures? Do options and futures expire on different days?
I am asking you as someone who understands the matter.
Interesting.
However, I wonder what percentage of options are exercised - since an option is a right to buy/sell currency, not an obligation.
By the way, exactly currency or currency futures? Do options and futures expire on different days?
I ask you as someone who understands the issue.
Oooh, go on and learn some more.
And I asked for a penny?
You're a rascal, aren't you?) And I'm more than sure that you won't show any volumes or predictions. You already know why).
I do not understand anything, I doubt that you and the Teacher understand yourselves.
And you guessed it, there will be no balls.