Market theory - page 69
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What is the forecast for Monday?
If you can - show me the new drawing(porabola) that's in my post above.
Thank you!
I guess we should buy on Monday ? till about 1.1100 .
Thanks !
Dear tuma88, it is obvious that by the end of Friday's session the Bears own the price, so buying is out of the question. The last price transfer to the Bears happened peacefully. when all market prices gathered together at the break-even level (Tsopt - let's consider the Leo level), organized an extremely perfect market, the Bulls peacefully transferred the competitive market to the Bears and now they can peacefully drive the market down.
I came to the following conclusion about the Bears and Bulls levels and the market in general, after mathematical analysis of their essence, revealing the formulas that create them:
1. Bears are the level of the current price, which was agreed between the market participants - buyers and sellers at the current moment. This is the first break-even (bottom) level, i.e., the level of market participants. It is not profitable for sellers to sell below this level. We can say that this is the level of the sellers. The trouble of market participants is that they do not know whether this level corresponds to the level of the market;
2. bulls - This break-even level of the market itself, which is formed on the basis of the prevailing general situation in the market in terms of its virtual maximum turnover, ie, market demand for this product. Nobody in the scientific world knew about its existence and the possibility of its numerical estimation, until I seriously investigated this problem, found the formula and found a way to estimate it numerically. If anyone knows the contrary, I will be glad to read the source with gratitude. Everyone, including perfect market theorists, thought that the market always balanced around a single break-even point and assumed that this was the area of the price itself. Simply, perplexed as to why the price rises to a certain level, and then, safely returns and then, the cycle repeats. Calmly, taking it as an axiom of Dow, which cannot be proven. Now you know that, it has been proven.
Now you may ask how the price manages to jump from one breakeven point to another on the calculated profit curve, which I constantly show you, where you can see that there is a huge distance between them? Of course, a simple jump from one point to another is impossible, because the price must cross the zone of maximum efficiency, where there is no trace of perfection, and that is death to the market and its participants. It turns out that the market does this trick very originally and simply, as I've recently shown in the screenshots. It turns out that, as I have revealed and you will read in detail in the article, the market can create a situation when it can function with one, global, breakeven level, when all virtual market levels and price meet at the same level and the top of perfection is reached, when it is theoretically impossible to make profit. This level I have called the tsugzwang level, which I described a little bit above. So, here, the main way the market moves from Bears to Bulls and vice versa is to pass at this point, otherwise it is a war between the two.
Finally, look at the mutual dependence of Bears and Bulls levels, which makes your head spin, because it appears that they govern themselves, in consultation with each other (!):
Bears = 1/2*( Bulls + Bears) - 1/2*(Bulls - Bears) = Bears;
Bulls = 1/2*( Bulls + Bears) + 1/2*(Bulls - Bears) = Bulls.
Yusuf !
What is the forecast for Monday?
If you can - show the new drawing(parabola) that is in my post above.
Thank you!
You have seen the perfect "parabola" of micro markets for goods and services, where everything is under the entrepreneur's control, but here is how it is in the real forex market, as of the end of Friday's session. The market is bearish, competitive, exceptionally perfect with zero calculated efficiency, which the Bears got from the Bulls peacefully at the global break-even point between 1300 and 1500 MSC on Friday. This is what the real parabola looks like:
By Monday's opening the market will appear very powerful and dynamic. The S index, which represents the maximum virtual profit or market turnover is 1377.6 points, with the usual 50-500 points, and the sensitivity Y index, which represents the market reaction to the price change by only 1 point, has reached 1239 points, with the usual 50-500 points. These indices are at their lowest in the 50-150 points range when the Bulls and Bears are fighting a monopoly and/or attempting to create one during the recent days. The ratio of these indicators forms the Bulls level, which is now at Ts2 = Tspr = Bulls = S/Y = 1377.6/1239 = 1.11191. The level of the Bears is the Price itself = 1.10093.
Therefore, on Monday the market could rally sharply downwards. as the market is owned by the Bears. The recommendation is SELL.
You have seen the perfect "parabola", but here is how it is in the real market as of the end of Friday's session. The market is bearish, competitive, and exceptionally perfect with zero calculated efficiency, which the Bears got from the Bulls peacefully at the global break-even point between 1300 and 1500 MSC on Friday. This is what the real parabola looks like:
It does not fit with my forecast.
As an option we may assume that the price will go down to 1.0970. And from there to buy a correction.
Thank you!
Gentlemen, please evaluate a fully automated TS on this theory, working on a very simple principle: "If Bulls are stronger than Bears, then, enter in BAY, otherwise - in SELL or If Bulls lead the market, then, enter in BAY, otherwise, SELL", each time closing an open position for 2010:
Maximum drawdown about 900 pips, profit about 1500 pips. I have not been able to achieve a better result yet.
The trading has started.
Has the sell forecast changed?
Please make a forecast according to your methodology and that of Crohost.
It's not about the excel, now we're figuring out at what point it's best to give a signal. I propose to buy when the price breaks away from the yellow line upwards, and you give when the red line reaches the price. Your signal is later than I suggest.
Thank you!
Yusuf!
The trading has started.
Has the sell forecast changed?
Please make a forecast according to your methodology and that of Crohost.
Thank you!
Gentlemen, please rate
The first file I downloaded (30 calculated observations (2010))
Does not match the last (240 computed observations (bottom on the chart)
What do you count, how do you count...
Whether there is life on Mars, whether there is no life on Mars is unknown to science)))