Market theory - page 63
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What is the market showing now?
As soon as I pass the algorithm to the exel programmer, it will be done quickly. Currently busy getting the exel in order. There are two programs. A calculation one, from which information is passed manually to the second program to build the main graph. I am trying to merge them into one program. Either it is difficult to do, or my knowledge of programming is insufficient.
Only five levels remain:
1. Ts is the level of the actual 9 current price;
And 4 virtual levels:
2. Ts1 - the first, break-even, virtual level - the Bears level;
3. Tsopt - virtual optimal price level;
4. Price - virtual market price level - mid-market level;
5. Ц2 - Second break-even level. virtual level - Bulls level.
Tsopt and Tsr levels control the Bulls and Bears by changing their mutual distance, so they almost merge, but in the moments when they spread the Bulls and Bears one to the price and the other to the basement or to space, the distance between them increases a little. I have left these levels to understand the bizarre movements of the Bulls and Bears levels and it is all organised by the current, actual price of C. It thus rules itself. The colours of the lines, the levels, can be seen on the chart. If anything remains unclear, please ask.
Bears always break-even at the CD1 level and Bulls always break-even at the CD2 level. Because all levels are virtual, but, for the market - real, they can not be seen by anyone but me. Even interventionists are unaware of them, but, over the years, they feel the mechanism of price movement from Bulls to Bears and vice versa. Soon I will finally find out the secret of the monopolists by reviewing the algorithm step by step on the minutes or when we build the indicator in the online mode.
I now find out the theoretical possibility of how it is possible to turn a standing egg of the calculated profit curve (the competitive market) into an inverted egg(the monopoly market) in a flash. The interesting thing is that it is just as easy to set up a competitive or monopoly market around C1 as it is around C2. Wonders.
Only five levels remain:
1. Ts is the level of the actual 9 current price;
And 4 virtual levels:
2. Ts1 - the first, break-even, virtual level - the Bears level;
3. Tsopt - virtual optimal price level;
4. Tsr - virtual market price level - mid-market level;
5. Ц2 - Second break-even level. virtual level - Bulls level.
Tsopt and Tsr levels control the Bulls and Bears by changing their mutual distance, so they almost merge, but at the moments when they spread the Bulls and Bears one to the price and the other to the basement or to the space, the distance between them increases a little. I have left these levels to understand the bizarre movements of the Bulls and Bears levels and it is all organised by the current, actual price of C. It thus controls itself. The colours of the lines, the levels, can be seen on the chart. If anything remains unclear, please ask.
Bears always break-even at the CD1 level and Bulls always break-even at the CD2 level. Because all levels are virtual, but, for the market - real, they can not be seen by anyone but me. Even interventionists are unaware of them, but, over the years, they feel the mechanism of price movement from Bulls to Bears and vice versa. Soon I will finally find out this secret of the monopolists by going step by step through the algorithm on the minutes or when we build the indicator in online mode, po-tikovo.
Now I am figuring out the theoretical possibility of how it is possible to turn a standing egg of the calculated profit curve (competitive market) into an inverted egg (monopoly market) in the blink of an eye. The interesting thing is that it is just as easy to set up a competitive or monopoly market around C1 as it is around C2. Wonders.
Better compare the profit curve with a bowl or an inverted bowl. And the egg is almost like a ball, no matter how you flip it - not much changes.
Or write - profit curve convex downwards or convex upwards.
Status as of the opening trading session on Wednesday, 20 05 15:
Bulls come back sharply to negotiate or settle, they are blocked by market prices as there is no point in hitting the Bears from this close range. 3 options are possible for the Bulls:
1. Create a support line to the Bears if the market is competitive.But, we see that the market is extremely monopolistic, the Bears (518 points) are stronger than the Bulls (444 points) - no negotiation or creation of a support level is out of the question. The Bulls are at war with the Bears;
2. Market prices can turn the Bulls far to the upside, to gain strength and then hit the Monopoly Bears;
3. the Monopolists will try to create a competitive market in order to attract other market participants to help fight the inconsistent, but. weaker Bulls, but so far they have failed;
The situation will become clearer in the near future:
The market is monopolistic:
Conclusion: as the market is ruled by the Bears, the mode of operation is SELL, for now.
Thanks, for the description and analysis, but still the other characters were more entertaining, let's go back to Dragons, Fox, Deer and others...
I suggest we have a vote...
There was also a new topic added over the holidays, "market theory regarding the Eurobucks", which the moderators took down...
So the forecasts for all pairs are made in this (one) branch?
We need a table... It is not clear where the forecast was justified and where it was not... The columns - date, entry direction, take, stop, lot, etc... The mathematician suggested to do it in (18)...
Better yet, let's make 10 branches by the name of a traded symbol, in which it will be already clear for which pair this indicator's forecast and update them at least once a day, for example, in the morning at your convenient time.
Thanks, for the description and analysis, but still the other characters were more entertaining, let's go back to Dragons, Fox, Deer and others...
I suggest we have a vote...
There was also a new topic added over the holidays, "market theory regarding the Eurobucks", which the moderators took down...
So the forecasts for all pairs are made in this (one) branch?
We need a table... It is not clear where the forecast was justified and where it was not... The columns - date, entry direction, take, stop, lot, ... as mathematician suggested to do ...
Better yet, let's make 10 branches by the name of a traded symbol, in which it will be already clear for which pair this indicator's forecast and update them at least once a day, for example, in the morning at your convenient time.
Better compare the profit curve with a bowl or an inverted bowl. And an egg is almost like a balloon, no matter how you flip it, not much changes.
Or write - profit curve convex downwards or convex upwards.
At 21-03 Msk, even at the very minimum of these feverish price jumps, the Bulls did not let the price out of their hands:
A tug-of-war (the point where the estimated profit is zero) occurred, when the market has only one, global break-even level, because the Bulls and the Bears, the Tsopt and Tsr, and the price itself met at the same level and the price changed hands with ease, which was evident in the convulsive price movements, decided, after conferring, to trust the price to the Bulls:
A triumph of theory, gentlemen, I predicted the emergence of the tsugzwang condition theoretically, and lo and behold, it happened in practice! And we have witnessed this moment. I am proud to be able to provide traders with such a powerful tool to fight against monopoly in the market! And this is just the beginning. What will happen when we create an indicator that will monitor all these market conditions every second, directly in the trading terminal. What a beauty and fascination it will be - I cannot describe it in words.
Opening trading session euro/dollar Thursday, 21 05 15:
Market type and theoretically allowed price change corridor (distance between breakeven levels, i.e., Bulls and Bears)
From now on, when analyzing the market condition, we will consider both charts together. If the upper chart shows the spread of virtual levels in the context of historical bars passed (indirectly, time), the lower chart shows the same in the context of evaluation of market perfection and behavior of the market leader, in this case, the Bulls and their adherence to immutable rules of trading.
What we see:
1. - The market moved slightly out of the tug-of-war state that it found itself in last night to prevent a strong price spread, apparently after some important news was released. What the tsugzwang is I will explain in details in my article, though I'm sure, that hundreds of doctoral dissertations and tens of Nobel prizes in economics will be devoted to complete explanation of all possible market conditions, to which I will point out, because I don't have enough time and physical energy to cover them completely. Here I will only say that the tsugzwang is, borrowed from the analysis of the situation in a game of chess, when any movement of the losing party, does not improve his position and leads to an inevitable defeat. In market terms, the zugzwang is the highest state of the market in achieving its perfection, which the market always strives for, so as not to be destroyed by the efforts of the parties involved. A zugzwang is when all virtual price levels, both controlling (Tsopt and Tsr) and executing (Ts1-Bears and Ts2-Bulls) are commanded by the Price to stay near it and stop driving it in any direction due to the current, extraordinary, situation fraught with, for all market participants, dire consequences. In mathematical terms, this means that the market virtual price becomes the optimal price, i.e, Tsr (Leo) = Tsopt (Leopard), the discriminant equations determining the levels for Ts1 (Bears) and Ts2 (Bulls) automatically turns to zero and then Ts1 = Ts2 = Tsr = Tsopt = Ts and there comes a global and unique break-even level equal to the value of the price, the market narrows to the price value itself without the possibility of changing it, there comes a severe flat, which we can observe;
2. we have to admit that, in the case of a monopolistic market, we were not happy with the way monopolists behaved when they offered market participants to conduct transactions below the virtual price level. now we find out that, in a competitive market, participants conduct 'illegal' transactions at high, from the virtual, price level. This is already a kind of monopoly, which needs to be given a name - maybe it already is, but I don't know.
3. A bull market.
Opening trading session euro/dollar Thursday, 21 05 15:
Market type and theoretically allowed price change corridor (distance between breakeven levels, i.e., Bulls and Bears)
From now on, when analyzing the market condition, we will consider both charts together. If the upper chart shows the spread of virtual levels in the context of historical bars passed (indirectly, time), the lower chart shows the same in the context of evaluation of market perfection and behavior of the market leader, in this case, the Bulls and their adherence to immutable rules of trading.
...
Why does estimated profit (blue line) go from left to right in the lower chart, and the actual profit (red) jumps from left to right, then from right to left?
It looks like you need formulas. But in the meantime, you can tell us in words, without formulas. It is interesting.
3. The market is bullish.