Market prediction based on macroeconomic indicators - page 59
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And you should also count the indicators of all the countries in the world, compare them and only thenadd the "I think so" parameter).
Again, my method does not predict the S&P500. It predicts recessions. The 2020 recession is not over yet. There is no problem forecasting it.
50% a year steady is utopia. Might be able to do that one year with a small investment, but then it also drains quickly.
Have you seen The Big Short? It's the same series, macroeconomic indicators are down and price is up on energy until it collapses.
What I mean is, you can't make money on Buy & Hold, it's like a pension fund, if you want to make money you have to use a more active and "aggressive" trading method; Buy & Sell / Sell & Buy.
Fundamental analysis is interesting, but it is hard to trade against the crowd)
And you have to count all the countries in the world, compare them and only thenadd the "I think so" parameter).
Science begins and ends with existing facts. Anything beyond them cannot have its status (at best, theory/hypothesis status). The least amount of subjectivity is found in studies of physical phenomena of the present within the reach of professional tools, and the most in the past, the future and the intangible. Especially in the future and in the field of human behaviour. Human behaviour is tied to psychology, mass behaviour to media, internet, PR, fakes, insinuations, emotions, cults and so on... An ocean of subjective "compost" in a world of unknowable laws. What in it can be confidently predicted?
Your answers reek of ingénue tendencies and are often monologue-like :)
Are you by any chance a he?
Your answers reek of ingénue tendencies and are often monologue-like :)
Are you by any chance a he?
To a constructive dialog. Note that the first line of the first post of this thread has the black and white task of the study: to predict the S&P500. Then, it talks about predicting the next quarter and describes step by step the approach to building the study. The recession is mentioned in passing (or rather, not at all).
I need to apologise for not explaining that there is nothing left of what was written on the first page of the strategy. The aim was to predict GDP and with it recessions and market behaviour. The problem with that method is that GDP fluctuates just like the market price, often for no apparent reason. For example, the department was late with its data and they announced the GDP, and then they corrected it for months. Often they also change the calculation methods. Natural elements leave their mark. A few years ago, due to the lack of a government balance sheet, many economic indicators stopped being updated at all. If you make a GDP model as described on the first page, by a linear combination of even 10 indicators, it leads to a high sensitivity of this model to unimportant fluctuations and data quality. This in turn leads to prediction errors.
In the end I decided to limit my predictions to recessions and not the whole GDP behaviour with its quarterly fluctuations. This allowed me to limit myself to just two indicators. Predicting recessions and when to sell the S&P500 using these two indicators is not that difficult. Much more difficult is choosing when to close a short position and when to switch to a long position. These two indicators give a premature signal to go long. A third indicator was needed. But still the quality of the long entry signal leaves much to be desired.
...
You wouldn't happen to be him, would you?
Have you seen The Big Short? It's the same series, macroeconomic indicators are down and the price of energy is up until it collapses.
What I mean is, you can't make money from Buy & Hold, it's like a pension fund, if you want to make money you have to use a more active and aggressive trading method; Buy & Sell / Sell & Buy.
Fundamental analysis is interesting, but it is difficult to trade against the crowd)
I agree that the market behaves irrationally, chaotically I would say. For example the market indexes today ignore the fact that the USA is in the middle of a recession, the GDP is down, high unemployment, many businesses (movie theatres, restaurants, department stores, wanted, etc.) have closed their doors for good, other businesses like airlines are laid off every month, no covid vaccine yet. This recession would have come without covid. It was predicted a year ago, e.g. here:
https://www.guggenheiminvestments.com/perspectives/macroeconomic-research/recession-update-how-severe-will-recession-be
Covid accelerated it. But the recession is not over yet.
Vladimir:
But the recession is not over yet.
I'd say more, but I prefer to be optimistic) Watch The Big Short at your leisure, based on true events, not much has changed since then)
Science begins and ends with existing facts. Anything beyond them cannot have its status (at best, theory/hypothesis status). There is the least amount of subjectivity in the study of physical phenomena of the present within the reach of professional tools, and the most in the past, the future and the immaterial. Especially in the future and in the field of human behaviour. Human behaviour is tied to psychology, mass behaviour to media, internet, PR, fakes, insinuations, emotions, cults and so on... An ocean of subjective "compost" in a world of unknowable laws. What in it can be confidently predicted?
Science begins and ends with existing facts.
No.
The facts are there - science is powerless over some known facts even in history.
Science originated and gradually evolved a long time ago, but it has not reached its peak. There are many dark spots in the current moment, and an abyss in undiscovered knowledge altogether.
Human behavior is more or less predictable and it is possible to make assumptions about its future behavior. This also applies to markets.
One should take into account many other factors that influence the markets. This is the availability of influence to any inhabitant of the earth by means of the Internet on the consciousness of large masses of the earth's population. But the physical laws will not play any role here, only the personality or the position in society.
Vladimir has a rational grain, but it can be used as a seed in the beak of a hen that is about to lay golden eggs. No offence, Vladimir, get it right...