Market prediction based on macroeconomic indicators - page 53

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So, after a long absence from this thread, here I am again. The market never collapsed as some have predicted. On the contrary, the S&P500 made new highs in July. A week ago US GDP growth data came out. The previous two quarterly predictions came true in direction (up), but the amplitude was much less. Although many economists were also predicting stronger growth. Here are the new US GDP predictions for the two quarters ahead:

According to my model, expect the US economy to slow further. The last quarter of this year may well turn out to be the first quarter of a recession. At the end of October we will see what happens in Q4. Now let's look at the Yield Curve, another recession predictor:

So far there are no signs of recession, but the curve is moving in a negative direction.

The day before yesterday the UK stepped up their stimulus. Japan and China are also stimulating. North Korea has launched test missiles towards Japan. China continues to dispute rights to the South China Sea. The US has an obligation to protect the South East (the Philippines and others). Without mentioning other closer conflicts, the world situation is already quite opaque. Gold is likely to continue to rise.

 
Usually price moves where it should before the news.
 
Vladimir:

The previous two quarterly predictions came true in direction (top)

Will do.
Difference between the actual value (blue line) 2016.03.25 and 2016.08.05.

Revisiting, cooking... as they wish)))


 
Vizard_:
Will do.
Difference between the actual value(blue line) 2016.03.25 and 2016.08.05.

Revisiting, cooking... whatever they want)))


Ha. I hadn't noticed that. Fed always updates their figures, but I always thought they did it before the new quarterly data came in. Changing the data from a year ago, it really looks like a kitchen sink.
 

Anything can be changed. Material production is no more than 20% of US GDP. It is more or less conservatively calculated.

But if you change the calculation methodology in the financial sector, software or Hollywood products, for example, the percentages and percentages of growth/decline you are trying to predict will change radically.

 
During the presidential election period, strong shocks for the stock market and the dollar should probably not be expected, i.e. the market is "over-insured" by political moments. Trump's statement about the market is negative, Fed - possible correction, maybe "advanced" players are already conducting operations according to the negative scenario, a flat with the elements of correction is inevitable. The sheep are intact and ...................... .
 
Veniamin Skrepkov:
During the presidential election period, strong shocks for the stock market and the dollar should probably not be expected, i.e. the market is "over-insured" by political moments. Trump's statement about the market is negative, Fed - possible correction, maybe "advanced" players are already conducting operations according to the negative scenario, a flat with the elements of correction is inevitable. The sheep are intact and ...................... .
Historically, they have always had a bullish rally before the presidential election.
 
Trump-dollar up. Clinton-dollar down.
 
Petr Baskakov:
Trump-dollar up. Clinton-dollar down.
Trump-market down, domestic and foreign instability. Trump's probability of becoming president is very small. Hillary - market up, taxes up, political corruption up, economy down.
 
Vladimir:
Trump is a downward march, internal and external instability. Trump's probability of becoming president is very small. Hillary - market up, taxes up, political corruption up, economy down.
Market up - economy down?
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