Emotions when trading - page 25
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My trading style seems too aggressive (and dangerous) to you because I put too many Sell Limits on it. And that's true. I could reduce the risks just by removing some of the sells. I could do that right at the opening of trading tomorrow. But I won't. The simple reason is that there are more Bears than Bulls in the market right now. And the Bears are still looking for sell opportunities. Many are waiting for a significant pullback and then enter to sell. As soon as the market grows a bit, there are those who aggressively try to sell the pair. But if you read analytics and think about the market mood, you don't have any questions about what to do (buy or sell). Such questions arise from those who play "catch-up" and try to catch every price variation.
I'll even be sorry if my supposed model of pullback is not complete and not all of the sells are activated, or even half of them (I'll earn less). I have put so many of them because the market may continue the downward movement at any moment, and it is not known from what levels (therefore we have chosen the levels of the nearest consolidations and rebounds). As it is felt that any spurs upwards are being sold (it is the impatient bidders who are the most impatient). Still hope that next week will bring a deeper pullback upwards due to the release of positive statistics in Europe.
Often I have noticed how surprisingly the fundamental environment literally overlaps with the technical picture. Or the technical picture repeats (reflects) the fundamental one... By the way, I didn't wait for the first Sell Limit (1.14590). The bears are in a hurry and sell. But we are waiting for the statistics on Germany and continuation of dialog between EU and Greece. Generally speaking, it is going to be a busy week. So, it is quite probable that the levels will be activated. There will be a lot of volatility. Anyway, as I already mentioned, even if the pattern does not work out fully or halfway, in the future, on the way to the target there will be pullbacks and sells may be set up. Trend is your Frend. This is like a proverb, or proverb.
On the subject of risk again - at the beginning of the capital's life, sometimes you need to take risks. The volume of risks can be increased or decreased depending on the general market conditions. The aggressiveness of trading can be increased or decreased depending on the environment. I remember an excerpt from a film about the war, where military commanders gathered in Stalin's office and decided how to proceed, not really believing Zhukov. Zhukov then replied that due to the current situation the enemy would act in this way and not otherwise... I liked those words very much... :-)
Me too, my brain is looking for a grail even in my dreams! Once I had a suggestion in a dream they would tell me the direction the price would go, and I kind of had to do the opposite in real life. So I did, and it turned out to be funny.
"I listened and listened, until Bernanke said, "Wake up, my son, your beautiful wife is waiting for you with a laptop with Metatrader in her hands. There is a foggy bottle in the fridge, snacks chopped, a tablecloth decorated with samobranka, a heated sauna ............................................ and you just have to sell it.
You're lucky, I wish I was like that.)
"I listened and listened, until Bernanke told me that my beautiful wife was waiting for you with a laptop with Metatrader in her hands. There is a foggy bottle in the fridge, snacks chopped, a tablecloth decorated with samobranka, a heated sauna .............................................
Lucky you, I wish I could do that.)
Yeah, me too, my brain is looking for a grail even in my dreams! So once, in a dream I got a suggestion, they would tell me the direction the price would go, and I kind of have to do the opposite in real life. So I did, and it was funny how it turned out.
Dreams are one of the unexplored phenomena.
And when I have to drive a car for a long time, I dream about markings on the road :-)).
It's all because you don't believe in trends. You don't believe in trends which are, in principle, obvious.
But I would not be as categorical as you, because I am aware of the "volatility" of the market. And I don't care who else is out there - I mean suppliers. As I said before, good luck in the past does not guarantee good luck in the future! Today the trend is in your favor, but not today or tomorrow it may happen that it changes. And those who deny it are bound to encounter problems! It is an inevitability!!!
Yes I suppose the market will fall too, but it will go up from the beginning, so many villagers will get scared.
Then, later, when the correction is over, leaving a lot of false positives in both directions (because the statistics and officials statements are both good and bad on both sides of the Atlantic), and the Market will continue moving down, they will have empty accounts. They will sit back and see how they were right in their forecast, but they rushed and screwed everything up. And the trend will continue without them...
Next, the next paycheck (or whatever), the next deposit. And here comes the moment of truth - what does he want to earn, or to have a ride, where adrenaline is injected into the blood in large doses...? Adrenaline prevents us from making money. Adrenaline is the fate of those who lose money. It is the fate of those who came to gamble, not to trade...
But those, who have long ago ceased to feel these pernicious injections of adrenalin in blood, have inside a bunker, where all emotions are sent. The doors of the bunker are hermetically sealed. There is no trace or smell of emotions ... This allows you to calmly and coldly execute all points of the trading plan, which was "approved" at the weekend, when the trading was closed ... These are the traders, of whom there are not many. Those who in moments of defeat and failure, whether in trading or in real life, always stand up after a fall, lick wounds, draw conclusions from mistakes, and go back to the battle. Any loss is briefly mourned. They make a piece of armour out of any failure and put it on their chain mail. On their battle waistcoat. Any defeat will make them stronger if they draw the right conclusions...
If you read my previous posts carefully, you will understand what I believe. ))
But I would not be as categorical as you, because I am aware of the "volatility" of the market. And I don't care about anyone else out there - I mean suppliers. As I said before, good luck in the past does not guarantee good luck in the future! Today the trend is in your favor, but not today or tomorrow it may happen that it changes. And those who deny it are bound to encounter problems! It is an inevitability!
The full force of monetary policy will be revealed to you over time. I have been watching it for years. There is nothing stronger than the flow of money all over the planet, which rushes to where the conditions are better. I am writing so much about this, so that one day, when it happens this way and not that way, you will remember it all and do the right thing. You will spend more time on analysis, instead of scalping, because you will understand where the real big money lies, not petty handouts.
You will start to identify trends based on macroeconomics, and you will make the right course of action by looking at the technical picture. And the Market will not frighten you with its outbursts, because you will know how it happens. And you'll remember again that trends don't change their direction 'out of the blue'. And when the Market is approaching a bottom, or a top, it will be evident long before it happens. It will be confirmed both by the fundamental analysis, and from the technical picture, where you will see the patterns that precede such events.
One can only hope that your words will not come true... :-)) But I will not buy. And I will not sit outside the Market either.
The full force of monetary policy will be revealed to you in time. I've been watching it for years. There is nothing stronger than the flow of money that rushes to where the conditions are better.
Ultimately any movement, as Argo pointed out in his article, is triggered by the crowd. If the crowd is set up to go down, well most likely it will. But one should not exclude the possibility of the crowd leading - the crowd can always be reversed.
How to trade knowing all this is personal for everyone.
This is the time when psychology comes into play, which most people are not known to be good at... Those who have opened seals at low unprofitable levels will be shaking their leg and biting their nails, not knowing what to do - to fix the losses or to let the capital melt away completely. Many have open positions in large volumes. The same fate awaits them. They will pray that the market will return to breakeven even for a moment, and they will wait for this, sitting with a ready "Close order" button if they are lucky ... Some have decided to go against the trend and started buying back the pullback. If they don't come to their senses in time - all their hard-earned profits may melt away in the blink of an eye.
Then, later, when the correction is over, leaving a lot of false positives in both directions (because the statistics and officials statements are both good and bad on both sides of the Atlantic), and the Market will continue moving down, they will have empty accounts. They will sit back and see how they were right in their forecast, but they rushed and screwed everything up. And the trend will continue without them...
Next, the next paycheck (or whatever), the next deposit. And here comes the moment of truth - what does he want to earn, or to have a ride, where adrenaline is injected into the blood in large doses...? Adrenaline prevents us from making money. Adrenaline is the fate of those who lose money. It is the fate of those who came to gamble, not to trade...
But those, who have long ago ceased to feel these pernicious injections of adrenalin in blood, have inside a bunker, where all emotions are sent. The doors of the bunker are hermetically sealed. There will be no trace or smell of emotions... Those are traders, of whom there are not many. Those, who at moments of defeats and failures, whether in trading or in real life, always stand up after the fall, lick wounds, make conclusions from mistakes and go back to the battle. Any loss is briefly mourned. They make a piece of armour out of any failure and put it on their chain mail. On their battle waistcoat. Any defeat will make them stronger if they learn the right lessons...
I'm not saying they will 100% come true. But I am not denying it either, as you are doing.
Ultimately any movement, as Argo pointed out in his article, is triggered by the crowd. If the crowd is set up to go down, well most likely it will. But with all that one should not exclude the possibility of the crowd leading - the crowd can always be reversed.
How to trade knowing all this is up to everyone.
While scalpers are nervously sitting in front of monitors and trying to catch price movement, and if they fail, they try to read in stock reports and news what the problem is, meanwhile those who trade with trends can quietly mind their own business without much concern about price fluctuations. This is the difference in approach principles. A short-term speculator (scalper) must always be on the alert.
And the trader can relax and wait for the forecasted targets.