FOREX - Trends, forecasts and implications - page 764

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stranger:
I've been putting dough in reel time here for a fortnight, so...
That means you honestly thought it was the right thing to do.
 
Urain:
Learn the math at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=586x0jWfi38

thanks for the link

can we apply this not to potatoes but to the current ruble situation?

stranger:
Well yes, super demand for the dollar and super supply of the ruble)

How can there physically be an oversupply of the rouble?

maybe because of the fact that ...For the first time the rouble is being issued not against dollars but against the bonds of state companies (Rosneft) - Moscow is becoming an independent issuer and is being slammed for it ...

а?

 
Urain:

Buy an option, why would you need a futures contract (an option is insurance against exchange rate changes, you pay the insurance and if the exchange rate changes to your disadvantage, you have the right to buy at the price specified in the option).

Futures are used to guide (industry) in making economic calculations. It is not certain that they will be so, but the probability is high. In the absence of reliance on accurate forecasts it is anything but, it's better than taking numbers from the ceiling. The funny thing about futures is that it's a vote of experts. And the most honest vote is when the expert is willing to bet money on his opinion. If a person gives you advice but isn't willing to bet money on it, you can throw that advice in the trash.

well, the bank of japan is in the market.

Why is the yen creeping down? Why is it getting cheaper?

 
IRIP:

well, the bank of japan has entered the market

why is the yen creeping down? Why is it getting cheaper?

Because the BoJ has transparently hinted - "the yen is too strong".

In other words, it is being devalued. How they do it is another question.

 
Carry on, gentlemen.......... interesting.
 
IRIP:

thanks for the link

can we apply this not to potatoes but to the current ruble situation?

How can there physically be an oversupply of roubles?


Like this - an increase in demand for dollars or euros, which are bought with those very roubles.

The reasons are different (someone decided to leave the Russian market because of sanctions, someone simply realised that there would be growth and decided to make money).

It is no secret that many foreign companies are covering up their businesses in Russia and taking money invested back. It is not like they are returning money to ruble accounts in Germany

 
lactone:

because the Bank of Japan has hinted transparently -"the yen is too strong".

In other words - they will devalue it. How they will do that is another question.

So the yen is strong - that's bad, and the ruble will get stronger, let Russieyushka be bad.........not surprised if I hear that because of the low ruble the development of shale oil is not profitable.
 
IRIP:

thanks for the link

can we apply this not to potatoes but to the current ruble situation?

How can there physically be an oversupply of the rouble?

maybe because of the fact that ...For the first time the rouble is being issued not against dollars but against the bonds of state companies (Rosneft) - Moscow is becoming an independent issuer and is being battered for it...

а?

Are you asking me? I have no idea why the ruble is weakening. In the next thread there was information that it was because of the Iskander exercises...

But then again we get bogged down with someone else's opinion, can it be considered the truth ? To what extent can a person's opinion about a country that has fled from that country be objective?

Some would say impossible, but if a person is telling the truth, if his facts are confirmed by reality.

That's where the question of expert judgment comes in, who to believe who not. I think those who bet money on it can believe in his sincerity, and if he also makes accurate predictions, well, he must understand something.

 
gnawingmarket:
Carry on, gentlemen.......... interesting.
what is of interest, specifically
 
gnawingmarket:
So the yen is strong - that is bad (1), and the ruble means let it get stronger, let Russieyushka be bad.......... here is part of the answer to our headaches......... I will not be surprised if I hear in court that because of the low ruble the development of shale oil is not profitable (2).

(1)Japan is an extremely export-dependent country. If the yen is strong, the cost of goods is simply uncompetitive. That's why the Japanese periodically weaken it too.

The ruble is a different story.

(2) Shale companies are dying because of the falling oil price. The ruble has nothing to do with it at all.

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