Attention Contest! Guess the EURUSD exchange rate on 13.11.2014 and get up to $67.5 and at least $18 - page 2

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abolk:
"Moors come and go, but the business stays"
"everybody gets paid")
 
sanyooooook:
Now you're wondering )

Well, that's because it's the beginning. Interest comes and goes if there is nothing to discuss.

Here's the thing about the odds. It would indeed be a good idea to take time into account. It's not very difficult to do - if price moves X distance per day, then it will move X*sqrt(n) in n days. Thus, 1 point error of one-day forecast is equivalent to 4.7 points error of a monthly forecast.

Well, people can calculate the results themselves. They can let you know and then you just double-check the winners.

 
meat:

Well, that's because it's the beginning. Interest comes and goes if there is nothing to discuss.

Here's the thing about the odds. It would indeed be a good idea to take time into account. It is known that if price moves X distance per day, then it will move X*sqrt(n) in n days. Thus, an error of 1 point in one-day forecast is equivalent to an error of sqrt(22)=4.7 points in one-month forecast.

Well, people can calculate the results themselves. They'll let you know. And you'll just double-check the winners.

The earlier you give an accurate price, the more you get.

Yeah, they'll do the math. Let them do it.)

 
I completely forgot that posts can be edited for 3 days, so I've changed the deadline for the exact price to 11:59 on 10.11.2014
 
sanyooooook:

My understanding of the multiplier is that the earlier you quote the exact price, the more you get

Well, if you're willing to pay more, then look for yourself. In theory, the dependence should be the same. If the minimum period (3 days) gain is 15 quid, then for 22 days should be sqrt(22/3)*15 = 40 quid.

 
meat:

Well, if you're willing to pay more, then see for yourself. In theory, the dependence should be the same. If the minimum period (3 days) gain is 15 quid, then for 22 days should be sqrt(22/3)*15 = 40 quid.

so the point is to name the exact price.

there will be one winner,

the one who gave the most accurate price

so far with no margin of error and no coefficients for an earlier exact value.

whoever is more accurate is right.

 

If no one, then I'll start:

EURUSD - 1.288582

 
1.2665
 
1.2202
 
ALXIMIKS:

If no one, then I'll start:

In 3 days you won't be able to edit your post to correct your prediction, and other people will be predicting in November with much greater accuracy, so what's the point?
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