The future of automated trading: round two - page 9
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это шутка .... ? или просто непонимание торговли....
A misunderstanding of the trade by whom? By mathematicians? Most likely.
...
Scalpers are having a particularly hard time lately. Robots have multiplied, and it is very difficult to fight them. They're settling in the "hammock" now en masse and putting up iron monster fights. It may not be visible to the simple eye, but there is a trend of increasing robotisation. There are several brokerage firms with 60-70% of their turnover done by robots.
- This is...
- No, no, no. Without any hints. Come on, why? It's all at the level of talk anyway, so there's no need to hint... But based on my observations of the market, I have this thought, by the way. A brokerage company, after all, can easily figure out its clients who are earning steadily. What prevents broker from introducing such a spy-robot in QUIK that would follow trader's actions and delay his order for trades? This is my speculation, but technologically it can be done.
The robot would copy my actions and, of course, would place orders faster than me. I think I can see it. Maybe I am imagining it... But I've noticed that from time to time I get beaten by other people's bids, and ok, if they were different. But then, no matter what I do, I get a bid ahead of me. And its volume is proportional to the volume of my order.
- Well...
- I don't have reliable statistics on robots. But it seems to me that there are already many of them. I'm trading by looking at the "glass" and following the movements in it: placing, withdrawing and moving quotes. What is happening today is not like what it was yesterday. This is not how people trade.
We traded with people for about seven years. And then came the iron machines. And what I see are the actions of machines. It all started when a person, who makes one or two deals a day with his system, started thinking about how to automate the process of trading itself, so that the program would do everything itself and he wouldn't have to go through all the heartache - to make a deal or not.
Right now I cannot imagine what the market will be like. We will play like chess. Robots will be fighting each other, but it is not clear what people will do.
(interview with Yuri Usachenko).
If you sit at a computer for 10 hours, that's 15-20 trades an hour. A trade every 3-4 minutes, and for 10 hours! He also lectures, but he hasn't missed a single trading session. Can you believe that?
OK, let's say 100,000 trades. Show me a chart of SB burdened with a spread in which all 144 monthly candlesticks with the volume of 500 trades each would be white.
So there are two options here, either Gerchik is blatantly lying, or the robots and their owners he is trading against are totally fucked.
Let's take Gerchik again (no, I'm not a fan and I'm very sceptical about his "success" but still). So, this man has been trading for 12 years (since 1996, I think). He trades intraday, making 150-200 deals a day. In his words, for all these 12 years he hasn't missed practically a single trading session. Altogether we have 250 trading days a year (with some reserve) * 12 years * 150 deals per day = 450 000 deals. Does his luck last for such a long time? How does he manage to make profit every month? It is simply impossible to do so with SB. Where are those famous ticking robots? With their collateral they should tear Gerchik and others like him apart.
Alexander is a phenomenon (peculiar) IMHO. His iron will and discipline helped him achieve what he did, and it's not just words, he can confirm it.
On the subject of mechanical trading on the stock market, I can say the following (as far as I know) - Alexander is interested in this subject and he collaborates with other people on this subject.
PS
As for the Forex market, so at least from those statements that I know, the following conclusion can be made - Forex is evil...
If he sits at his computer for 10 hours, that's 15 to 20 trades per hour. A deal every 3-4 minutes, and for 10 hours! He also lectures, but he does not miss a single trading session. Can you believe it?
He doesn't give his lectures that often, he gives them twice a year in CIS countries (as far as I know). And it doesn't matter how many deals he makes a day and how many sessions he trades.
One thing is certain - he works intraday, and he has no month-end losses for at least the last 10 years.
Alexander is a (peculiar) phenomenon IMHO. He achieved what he did through iron will and discipline, and it's not just words, he can confirm it.
On the subject of mechanical trading on the stock market, I can say the following (as far as I know) - Alexander is interested in this subject and he collaborates with other people on this subject.
PS
As for Forex market, from those his statements that I know, I can draw the following conclusion - Forex is evil...
He doesn't give his lectures that often, he gives them twice a year in CIS countries (as far as I know). And it does not matter how many deals he makes a day and how many sessions he trades.
One thing is certain - he works intraday, and for at least the last 10 years he has no losses at the end of the month.
OK, let's say 100,000 trades. Show me a chart of SB burdened with a spread in which all 144 monthly candles with a volume of 500 trades each would be white.
It turns out that there are two options here: either Gerchik impudently lies or the robots and their owners against whom he trades are completely fucked.
Gerchik is paying taxes on time and there is no reason for him to lie, because he can prove everything in the documents.
As for trading robots - as far as I know he does not make the main trades on the Forex Market, but on the NYSE (and does not chase the profit).
With these tactics and conditions, with his experience it's a sin to have losses.
PS
By the way, if we are talking about serious mechanization of trading, it's about funds. We can also talk about currencies, but it's not so ...
IMHO
I wonder why you are ready to believe so much.
I'm not ready to believe it. It's just that I was interested in US equities at one time. While researching this issue I got to know various information about this man.
Of course, there is positive and negative information. But all the same some people who dreams to earn a fortune in a year or two should get acquainted with his recommendations and methods of trading on the stock market.
It's not really a brut-force (at least in my mind). Read if you're interested, briefly what it's all about...
http://algoritmus.ru/?p=1555
P.S. Good thread, but since the thread starter and those who could say caustic but on-topic banned, well, I'll say nothing. Dude is a reader.
i still stick to my opinion: high friquency trading is brute-force. because in the limit, the issue rests on power and latency to the gateway. With turnovers worth billions, a C-professional with a master's degree is, of course, a gentleman's minimum. but just pipsqueak in a cup. of course, only for the establishment.
P.s.: I remember a good article "Automated lucre" in March's Around the World. It is available in electronic form - see http://www.vokrugsveta.ru/vs/article/6855/ Also in the same issue you can read "Lynch People" about the dying floor http://www.vokrugsveta.ru/vs/article/6854/
Don't get hung up on high-frequency only. That's not the only thing robots can do ...
About maths - ... people are looking for good mathematicians and are willing to pay them big bucks...
that's what I'm saying, man. no argument there!
Now mathematicians ... I say this: if our Mozk earns from Uncle Sam a salary with zeros many, many, many times higher (exaggerating) than I personally earn now - respect and respect to Mozk. That's from me personally. and no irony!
Because you can win Nobel prizes and still be a dope, as reality never ceases to tell us.
Don't flaunt your complexes once again. [timbo, this is your last post with personal attacks, the next one will result in a ban - Rosh] and you try to make up for it by lashing out at Nobel laureates.
"Ah, the Moose! You know it's strong when it barks at an elephant."
The amazing thing is that Gerchik is alive after 2008, but the mega-brains with great software and supercomputers are dead. Where are the Lehman Brothers now, for example? Oh, and don't talk about how everything is to blame for the mortgage, if it wasn't for that... Again, take those critics from LTCM (mega fast robots, stock colocation, etc., etc.). It's hard to imagine cooler than mathematicians. One even won the Nobel Prize in economics. Where is that fund now? Where's the $50 billion? Where is it? It's gone. Because you can win a Nobel Prize and still be an idiot, as reality keeps telling us.