The future of automated trading - page 27

 
ns_k:

All right, the movement of the ball does not even need to be predicted, but only recorded, it is easier with facts than with predictions, but the movement of the car, it is already a response to the unpredictable, although not yet a forecast of events.The second point you have the strongest of course, I agree, a rate forecast is not chess and not even the weather forecast. I'm not a predictor and I'm not saying that Forex will degenerate tomorrow, because all exchange rates will be determined by some computer programme that, weighing all known factors influencing the rate, will set it, say, an hour, a day or a week ahead. I say that everything is moving towards it, and it is hard to say when we will get there, in 10 years or in a hundred of years. I think sooner rather than later. Again, maybe it is utopia, nobody cancelled demand and if someone finds out something that will be unknown to that supercomputer, it is possible to play on it, again it is the strongest point in your post.

Mathemat:

Do you understand the difference between predicting ball movement and the same for the Eurobucks rate?

In the first case it is mechanics (even if "distorted" by the interaction of the ball with the air), while in the second it is purely an information system, with all the influences affecting the rate perhaps no one knows.

In addition, the trading system itself affects the course (if applied en masse) - and eventually it loses effectiveness. This is not the case with the ball, there is no such explicit feedback here.

http://soft.mail.ru/pressrl_page.php?id=51734

It should be made clear at once that the 19-seat business jet was not flying under the control of a trivial autopilot, but was a kind of "smart" pilotless aircraft, which continuously monitored its position in space, detected interference and if necessary performed safe evasive manoeuvres. In doing so, the aircraft flew to its destination, fulfilling its primary function of delivering passengers (in this flight, the test engineers). In the near future, such systems will take over most of the pilot's work, and live pilots will only have to assist the robot.

In addition, the era of truly large drones is approaching: such systems could be fitted to large transport aircraft. This will reduce the cost of flying, reduce the risk to humans, and allow flying in more difficult weather conditions.

Софт@Mail.Ru: Пассажирский самолет пролетел 800 км без пилота: Новости IT
Софт@Mail.Ru: Пассажирский самолет пролетел 800 км без пилота: Новости IT
  • soft.mail.ru
Впервые интеллектуальная компьютерная система полностью заменила пилота и обеспечила безопасность авиатранспорта в условиях оживленного трафика. Сразу поясним, что 19-местный бизнес-джет летел не под управлением банального автопилота, а был своеобразным «умным» беспилотным летательным аппаратом, который непрерывно отслеживал свое положение в...
 
ns_k:

http://soft.mail.ru/pressrl_page.php?id=51734

We clarify right away that the 19-seat business jet was not flying under the control of a trivial autopilot, but was a kind of "smart" drone, which continuously monitored its position in space, detected interference and, if necessary, performed safe evasive manoeuvres. In doing so, the aircraft flew to its destination, fulfilling its primary function of delivering passengers (in this flight, the test engineers). In the near future, such systems will take over most of the pilot's work, and live pilots will only have to assist the robot.

In addition, the era of truly large drones is approaching: such systems could be fitted to large transport aircraft. This will reduce the cost of flying, reduce the risk to humans, and allow flying in more difficult weather conditions.

If you know absolutely all the data that can affect anything, you can calculate the movement of that something very precisely. No one can know the data. Well, not unless God knows).

Everything in the world is predetermined.

 
4elendger:

If you know absolutely all the data that can influence something, you can calculate the movement of that something very precisely. No one can know the data. Well, not unless God knows).

Everything in the world is predetermined.

It's called Newtownism :)
 
ns_k:
It's called Newtownism :)

Yeah? I haven't even heard that word.)

Everything in the world moves along a pre-determined trajectory. And all external factors are already accounted for. They have their own trajectory.

 
4elendger:

Yeah? I haven't even heard that word.)

Everything in the world moves along a pre-determined trajectory. And all external factors are already accounted for. They have their own trajectory.

In post-Newtonian times it was thought that science had discovered everything and that if one knew the initial coordinates of all particles and their impulses, one could predict the future for any length of time ahead
 
ns_k:
In post-Newtonian times it was thought that science had discovered everything and that if one knew the initial coordinates of all particles and their impulses, one could predict the future for any period of time ahead
Yeah, and then the uncertainty principle came along, which put the whole Newtonian thing under a cloud.
 
Mathemat:

Do you understand the difference between predicting ball movement and the same for the Eurobucks rate?

In the first case it is mechanics (even if "distorted" by the interaction of the ball with the air), while in the second it is purely an information system, with probably no one knowing all the influences affecting the rate.

Also, the trading system itself affects the rate (if applied en masse) - and eventually it loses effectiveness. This is not the case with the ball, there is no such explicit feedback here.

http://spydell.livejournal.com/

" And you have to understand the following - there has been no market since 2012. What we see is a virtual, synthetic environment, completely manipulated by a dozen major banks and central bankers."

That's to say about the increasing day by day discretisation of change. I do think :) that in the future the gaps in such ladders will be getting bigger. I.e. flat, flat for hours, days, shifted in a couple of minutes, flat, flat, flat.

Reuters информеры
Reuters информеры
  • spydell
  • spydell.livejournal.com
Что это такое? На базе чего построено и как работает? Примерная структура информеров ниже. Ссылки по разделам будут добавляться по мере внедрения информеров... Рыночная информация
 
ns_k:
In post-Newtonian times it was believed that science has discovered everything and if one knows the initial coordinates of all particles and their momentum, one can predict the future for any period of time ahead

The problem arises even with three bodies:

The three-body problem (in astronomy) is a particular problem in celestial mechanics, consisting in determining the relative motion of three bodies (material points) interacting according to Newton's law of gravity (e.g. the Sun, the Earth and the Moon). In general, there is no solution to this problem in the form of finite analytical expressions.

 
ns_k:

http://spydell.livejournal.com/

" And what you have to understand is this - there has been no market since 2012. What we see is a virtual, synthetic environment, completely manipulated by a dozen major banks and central bankers."

This is to say that the discretisation of change is increasing day by day. I'm thinking :) that the spans of such scaffolding will get longer and longer. I.e. flat, flat for hours, days, shifted in a couple of minutes, flat, flat, flat

Yep, read more blogs gentlemen, you'll turn into scared mice altogether. All this conspiracy bullshit is constantly preached by someone somewhere, the meaning of its demoralization, suppression of potential competitors. As long as there are fluctuations in the market and trading is allowed, there will be those who have a large profit from it and those who are losing money.

The automated program won't change the market essence, only the speed of changes and the form of dependencies will change, but about the eternal flat - nonsense! The robots on the contrary "flush" the price. It's the brokerage companies that filter the real market "meh".

There is no need to worry about the future of algo-trading, it's very bright, for people who are inventive and brave. I've glimpsed this thread - utter nonsense! It's all fucking consperology, like big hedge funds and banks have not just people but gods sitting on their heads and beaming at their brains. If you ask me, it's the opposite, because of the office role-playing, such employees spend more time worrying about the office bullshit relations, their image, attributes, etc. than the real thing, the enthusiast from the basement has a very good chance to model the market a lot better, if he believes in himself.

 
m.butya:

Yeah, read more blogs gentlemen, you'll turn into scared mice. All this conspiracy bullshit is constantly preached by someone somewhere, its meaning is demoralization, suppression of potential competitors. As long as there are fluctuations in the market and trading is allowed, there will be those who have a large profit from it and those who are losing money.

The automated system would not change the market essence, only the rate of change and form of dependencies will change, but concerning the eternal flat - nonsense! The robots on the contrary "flush" the price. It's the brokerage companies that filter the real market "meh".

There is no need to worry about the future of algo-trading, it's very bright, for people who are inventive and brave. I've glimpsed this thread - utter nonsense! It's all fucking consperology, like big hedge funds and banks have not just people but gods who ray on the brain. If you ask me, it's the opposite, because of the office role-playing, such employees spend more time worrying about the office bullshit relations, their image, attributes, etc. than the real thing, an enthusiast from the basement has many chances to model the market a lot better, if he believes in himself.

I would generally like to believe in a bright future, but there are some inconsistencies in the following judgements

1. "scare off competitors" - in the marketplace, you make money at the expense of the mistakes of others. Conspiracy theories will scare off the wrong people even more, in my opinion. People in blogs aren't scaring off competitors, they're spouting their worries about the market having "gone electronic and the old methods not working", if I may put it that way. Here's another linkhttp://finparty.ru/section/interview/

Quote: "First of all, the commissions were 50-60 bps back then. Secondly, the rhythm of work was completely different. Now with the development of technology and infrastructure the industry has become much more intensive, which on the one hand is good. On theother hand, it has become much less dependent on human factor.When I first got into the stock market, there were no such things as DMA, algorithmic trading, etc.And now in New York, probably 90% of the volume is going through the new technological infrastructure capabilities. As a matter of fact, the flash crush of 2010 demonstrated this very clearly. And there are no fewer of them. Mistakes will be made, but the market will be increasingly controlled in this way. What is my role here? My market of 'human bodies' is shrinking."

2. " standing, standing, standing, repositioning" is not from robots, but from the fact that fewer and fewer people are trading during the day

I was generally expecting this thread not only to predict and gather facts that robots are advancing, but also how to deal with it or, for example, that people would comment on how to get around robots. Let me be more specific... What makes a human being stronger than a robot, what are his or her strengths compared to an electronic brain

Игорь Кан: «Мой рынок «человеческих тел» сужается»
Игорь Кан: «Мой рынок «человеческих тел» сужается»
  • finparty.ru
Игорь Кан, много лет проработавший трейдером по акциям в глобальных инвестбанках, на прошлой неделе покинул индустрию. Чем вызван его поступок, как изменился брокерский бизнес за последние 20 лет, и что он планирует делать дальше, Кан рассказал в интервью Finparty. - В 2007 году для того, чтобы быть первым на order book, надо было отторговать...