Martingale experience - page 3
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1 => flex multiplication logics
2 => hard limits on the number of attempts to multiply
For instance,
2/1 => reset on the end of day
2/2 => reset after N attempts
etc...
In any case, it is wise to have a couple of the following options
1 => flex multiplication logics
2 => hard limits on the number of attempts to multiply
For instance,
2/1 => reset on the end of day
2/2 => reset after N attempts
etc...
Thank you so much, Airat!
It also depends on what you aim for or the Risk you are willing to take (or how greedy you are).
More greed means you will have to rely more on Luck and The Luck Factor is the real unknown factor in these systems.
Whatever it is, it needs to be eliminated to stabilize the final results.
Personally i do not believe in Luck.
I believe in Probability and Statistics.
So we can say that every Candle has a value, first let's assume a value of the entire candle in the base currency on a one Lot Position.
If I got you right you are reducing your take profit to achieve more successful trades (hitting the take profit).
If you reduce your take profit to the half it will get hit twice as often. That is the upside. But it will only gain the half what is the downside. So the outcome stays the same.
If I got you right you are reducing your take profit to achieve more successful trades (hitting the take profit).
If you reduce your take profit to the half it will get hit twice as often. That is the upside. But it will only gain the half what is the downside. So the outcome stays the same.
You reduce the events where the outcome is unknown and increase the events that have a high probability of occurring.
Of course this example is standardized on a one candle event to make it easier to start with simple calculations.
A potential next step could be to keep the trade open longer if it ends in profit then you prolong the trade which means that you do not have to pay the spread and costs upon entering the next candle.
When you look at it from a trending perspective it is in fact highly undesirable to open and close trades like this, on every candle because you want to be on that trend for as long as possible so if it lasts 4 or 5 candles the calculations become a bit more complex but you can see that the eventual concept or protocol will differ from the basic concept in the primitive example i made.
It's also possible to use a ladder or grid with steps where each step correlates to a higher target depending on the amount of consecutive candles in the same direction, and the event of consecutive candles also has to be calculated in terms of probability so that it also can be fine tuned to discover more high probability and accurate entries and exits.
Moreover, Time by itself is an important anchor because there are differences in sessions and traders online which in turn trade different instruments at different times, all of this can (needs) to be incorporated into the equation to be able to make better trading decisions.
For example, A stand alone Martingale is something entirely different then a Martingale that is linked to (expected) Timed events.
The real question then becomes can it still be called Martingale ? Because its a modified and hybrid or evolved version.
You reduce the events where the outcome is unknown and increase the events that have a high probability of occurring.
But now you need more of the successful events to achieve the same result.
The probability if your trading system is successful or not has nothing to do with the size of TP or SL.
Probability = p
Result of trading system = p of winning trades x average win per trade - p of losing trades x average loss per trade.
You increase p of winning trades if you decrease the TP. But it decreases the average win per trade as much as it increases the occurrence of winning trades.
Edit: If you need more trades for the same result it is even worse. You have to pay more trading fees then.
If 99% of all traders fail to make money trading forex. Then - How often do you think EA’s fail to make money?
Learn semi-manual techniques that will allow you to profit 15-30 points each day. The hard part is finding where to enter the market (use your indicators).
EA’s should be used to assist your trading after you enter the trade. Win 2/3 is a good ratio. This ratio can generate a weekly paycheck.
Making money should be the ultimate goal. Not programing. (just my opinion)
You reduce the events where the outcome is unknown and increase the events that have a high probability of occurring.
Of course this example is standardized on a one candle event to make it easier to start with simple calculations.
A potential next step could be to keep the trade open longer if it ends in profit then you prolong the trade which means that you do not have to pay the spread and costs upon entering the next candle.
When you look at it from a trending perspective it is in fact highly undesirable to open and close trades like this, on every candle because you want to be on that trend for as long as possible so if it lasts 4 or 5 candles the calculations become a bit more complex but you can see that the eventual concept or protocol will differ from the basic concept in the primitive example i made.
It's also possible to use a ladder or grid with steps where each step correlates to a higher target depending on the amount of consecutive candles in the same direction, and the event of consecutive candles also has to be calculated in terms of probability so that it also can be fine tuned to discover more high probability and accurate entries and exits.
Moreover, Time by itself is an important anchor because there are differences in sessions and traders online which in turn trade different instruments at different times, all of this can (needs) to be incorporated into the equation to be able to make better trading decisions.
For example, A stand alone Martingale is something entirely different then a Martingale that is linked to (expected) Timed events.
The real question then becomes can it still be called Martingale ? Because its a modified and hybrid or evolved version.
Thank you so much, Marco.
Let me test it in some cases of my EAs.
But now you need more of the successful events to achieve the same result.
The probability if your trading system is successful or not has nothing to do with the size of TP or SL.
Probability = p
Result of trading system = p of winning trades x average win per trade - p of losing trades x average loss per trade.
You increase p of winning trades if you decrease the TP. But it decreases the average win per trade as much as it increases the occurrence of winning trades.
Edit: If you need more trades for the same result it is even worse. You have to pay more trading fees then.
Thank you so much, Jan.
Let me test it in some case of my EAs.
Does back test calculate swap?
Don’t use martingale.
If 99% of all traders fail to make money trading forex. Then - How often do you think EA’s fail to make money?
Learn semi-manual techniques that will allow you to profit 15-30 points each day. The hard part is finding where to enter the market (use your indicators).
EA’s should be used to assist your trading after you enter the trade. Win 2/3 is a good ratio. This ratio can generate a weekly paycheck.
Making money should be the ultimate goal. Not programing. (just my opinion)
Thank you, BUD. Totally agree with you.
i dont recommend martingale
What do you recommend ?