AUDUSD Technical Analysis 2014 30.03 - 06.04: Bullish
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newdigital, 2014.03.31 06:10
2014-03-31 00:00 GMT (or 02:00 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - New Home Sales]
- past data is 0.5%
- forecast data is n/a
- actual data is 4.6% according to the latest press release
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for AUD in our case)
==========
The Housing Industry Association has reported a strong rise in new home sales, particularly freestanding houses.
The HIA - which represents the country's large players in the housing construction sector - says sales of new detached homes rose by 6.9 per cent in February.
Overall new home sales rose by 4.6 per cent in seasonally adjusted terms.
HIA chief economist Harley Dale says the result was not particularly surprising.
"There's been growing momentum in new home sales for some months now," he said.
"After a couple of months where we had growth but it was quite modest we were probably overdue for a stronger result and that's certainly what we got."
That was despite a 6.8 per cent fall in the new apartment category of the sector.
Dr Dale says the change reflects shifting preferences and that the homes are being built in different areas.
"There's a little bit of change going on in terms of what we build in Australia," he said.
"In the first instance the recovery in new home building was driven primarily by New South Wales and to a lesser extent Western Australia.
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AUDUSD M5 : 25 pips price movement by AUD - New Home Sales news event
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newdigital, 2014.03.29 11:36
AUDUSD Fundamentals (based on dailyfx article)
Fundamental Forecast for Australian Dollar: Neutral- RBA Rate Decision May Be a Nonevent as “Period of Stability“ Continues
- AUD/USD May Fall as Upbeat US Data Erodes Aussie’s Yield Advantage
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newdigital, 2014.03.30 15:02
Forex Fundamentals - Weekly outlook: March 31 - April 4The dollar rose to two-week highs against the yen on Friday, as indications that China’s government is prepared to do more to shore up the cooling economy bolstered risk appetite.
Market sentiment was boosted after China's premier Li Keqiang said the country has policies in place to counter economic volatility. The remarks eased concerns over recent signs of a slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy.
Data on Friday showing that U.S. consumer spending rose 0.3% last month after a downwardly revised gain of 0.2% in January also lifted the dollar higher against the yen.
USD/JPY rose 0.64% to end Friday’s session at 102.83, the highest since March 12. For the week, the pair gained 0.57%.
The euro edged up from one-month lows against the dollar following the comments, with EUR/USD inching up 0.07% to settle at 1.3752, recovering from lows of 1.3702. The pair ended the week down 0.61%.
The euro remained under pressure after European Central Bank officials indicated earlier in the week that they are considering fresh policy options to stave off the risk of deflation in the region.
ECB governing council member and Bundesbank head Jens Weidmann said Tuesday that a negative deposit rate could be an appropriate way to address the impact of strong gains in the euro.
The same day ECB President Mario Draghi that the central bank stood ready to act if inflation slipped lower than the ECB expected.
Data on Friday showing that the annual rate of inflation in Spain slipped 0.2% in March fuelled concerns that deflation could threaten the economic recovery in the euro area. A separate report showed that the annual rate of inflation in Germany slowed in March.
The dollar was lower against the pound on Friday, with GBP/USD up 0.185 to 1.6640 at the close of trade.
Sterling remained supported after a report on Friday showed that U.K. fourth quarter growth was left unrevised at 0.7% for the final three months of 2013. Another report showed that the U.K. current account deficit came in at a larger-than-expected 22.4 billion pounds in the fourth quarter.
Elsewhere, the Australian dollar rose to a four-month high of 0.9295 against the greenback on Friday, before trimming back gains slightly to settle at 0.9247. AUD/USD ended the week with gains of 1.33%.
The Aussie was boosted as recent reports indicated that the economy is picking up, while hopes for fresh stimulus measures from China also supported the Australian’s dollar’s gains. Meanwhile, NZD/USD edged down 0.18% to 0.8654 at the close on Friday, after hitting two-and-a-half year highs of 0.8696 earlier in the session. The pair ended the week with gains of 1.31%.
In the week ahead, investors will be looking to Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for March for further indications on the strength of the labor market, while Monday’s euro zone inflation report will also be in focus, ahead of the ECB policy meeting and press conference on Thursday.
Monday, March 31
- Japan is to release preliminary data on industrial production.
- New Zealand is to produce private sector data on business confidence, while Australia is to publish data on private sector credit.
- Switzerland is to publish its KOF economic barometer.
- The U.K. is to release data on net lending to individuals.
- The euro zone is to produce preliminary data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.
- Canada is to publish the monthly report on gross domestic product, the broadest indicator of economic activity and the leading indicator of economic growth.
- Japan is to publish its Tankan manufacturing and non-manufacturing index, as well as data on average cash earnings.
- China is to release data on manufacturing activity.
- The Reserve Bank of Australia is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision.
- The euro zone is to release data on the unemployment rate. Germany is release data on the change in the number of people unemployed, while Spain and Italy are to release reports on manufacturing activity.
- Switzerland is to release its SVME manufacturing index.
- The U.K. is to release data on manufacturing activity.
- Later Tuesday, the Institute of Supply Management is to publish a report on U.S. manufacturing growth.
- Australia is to produce data on building approvals, a leading indicator of future construction activity.
- The U.K. is to produce private sector data on house price inflation, as well as official data on construction activity.
- In the euro zone, Spain is release data on the change in the number of people unemployed.
- The U.S. is to release the ADP report on private sector job creation, which leads the government’s nonfarm payrolls report by two days. The U.S. is also to release data on factory orders.
- Australia is to release data on retail sales and the trade balance, the difference in value between imports and exports.
- China is to produce data on service sector activity.
- The euro zone is to release data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. Spain and Italy are to publish data on service sector activity.
- The U.K. is also to release data on service sector growth, while the Bank of England is to announce its benchmark interest rate.
- Later in the day, the European Central Bank is to announce its benchmark interest rate. The announcement is to be followed by a press conference with President Mario Draghi.
- Both the U.S. and Canada are to publish data on the trade balance, and the U.S. is also to publish the weekly report on initial jobless claims. Meanwhile, the ISM is to publish a report service sector activity.
- Germany is to publish data on factory orders.
- Canada is to publish data on the change in the number of people employed and the unemployment rate. The nation is also to publish its Ivey PMI
- The U.S. is to round up the week with the closely watched government data on nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate.
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newdigital, 2014.03.30 15:08
AUDUSD Fundamentals - weekly outlook: March 31 - April 4The Australian dollar ended Friday’s session close to a four-month high, amid indications the local economy is picking up, while hopes for fresh stimulus measures from China also supported gains.
AUD/USD rose to 0.9295 on Friday, the pair’s highest since November 21, before subsequently consolidating at 0.9248 by close of trade on Friday, down 0.1% for the day but still 1.79% higher for the week.
The pair is likely to find support at 0.9215, the low from March 27 and resistance at 0.9295, the high from March 28.
The Aussie climbed to the highest level since November on Friday after China's premier Li Keqiang said policymakers are prepared to do more to shore up the cooling economy.
The remarks helped ease concerns over recent signs of a slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy. The Asian nation is also Australia’s biggest trade partner.
The Australian dollar remained supported after upbeat comments made by Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens earlier in the week.
RBA Governor Stevens said on Wednesday that the nation’s economy may strengthen later this year. Stevens added that this was helped by "the lower exchange rate since last April and the improved economic conditions overseas."
Meanwhile, in the U.S., data on Friday showed that U.S. consumer spending rose 0.3% last month after a downwardly revised gain of 0.2% in January
A separate report showed that the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index slipped to 80.0 in March, down from 81.6 the month before. It was higher than the preliminary March reading of 79.9 but below forecasts of 80.5.
On Thursday, economic reports showed that U.S. jobless claims fell to their lowest level since late November last week, while U.S. fourth quarter growth was revised higher.
Data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission released Friday showed that speculators reduced their bearish bets on the Australian dollar for the second consecutive week in the week ending March 25.
Net shorts totaled 20,527 contracts, compared to net shorts of 24,463 in the preceding week.
In the week ahead, investors will be looking to Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for March for further indications on the strength of the labor market, while Tuesday’s rate decision from the RBA will also be closely-watched.
Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.
Monday, March 31
- Australia is to publish data on private sector credit.
- China is to release data on manufacturing activity.
- The Reserve Bank of Australia is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision.
- Later Tuesday, the Institute of Supply Management is to publish a report on U.S. manufacturing growth.
- Australia is to produce data on building approvals, a leading indicator of future construction activity.
- The U.S. is to release the ADP report on private sector job creation, which leads the government’s nonfarm payrolls report by two days. The U.S. is also to release data on factory orders.
- Australia is to release data on retail sales and the trade balance, the difference in value between imports and exports.
- China is to produce data on service sector activity.
- Later in the day, the U.S. is to publish data on the trade balance and the weekly report on initial jobless claims. Meanwhile, the ISM is to publish a report service sector activity.
- The U.S. is to round up the week with the closely watched government data on nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate.
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newdigital, 2014.04.01 08:33
2014-04-01 03:30 GMT (or 05:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - Cash Rate]
- past data is 2.50%
- forecast data is 2.50%
- actual data is 2.50% according to the latest press release
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for AUD in our case)
==========
Australia Retains Record Low Interest Rate
The Reserve Bank of Australia left its key interest rate unchanged at a record low on Tuesday as policymakers viewed that a period of stability in interest rates is likely to be the most prudent course.
The monetary board led by Governor Glenn Stevens decided to maintain the cash rate at 2.50 percent as widely expected by economists.
The RBA has reduced the cash rate by a cumulative 225 basis points since November 2011 to help the economy sustain demand in areas outside the resources sector in view of fading support from the mining boom.
Stevens said last week there is encouraging early evidence that the so-called 'handover' from mining-led demand growth to broader private demand growth is beginning.
Today RBA said resources sector investment spending is set to decline significantly and, at this stage, signs of improvement in investment intentions in other sectors are only tentative. Public spending is expected to be subdued.
According to the central bank's assessment, the decline in the exchange rate from its highs a year ago will assist in achieving balanced growth in the economy.
The bank expects inflation to be consistent with the 2-3 percent target over the next two years. The board judged that monetary policy is appropriately configured to foster sustainable growth in demand and inflation outcomes consistent with the target.
According to policymakers, continued accommodative monetary policy should provide support to demand, and help growth to strengthen over time.
AUDUSD M5 : 49 pips range price movement by AUD - Cash Rate news event :
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newdigital, 2014.04.02 07:20
2014-04-02 00:30 GMT (or 02:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - Building Approvals]
- past data is 6.9%
- forecast data is -2.5%
- actual data is -5.0% according to the latest press release
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for AUD in our case)
==========
Australia Building Approvals Fall In February
The total number of building approvals in Australia was down a seasonally adjusted 5.0 percent on month in February, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday, standing at 16,669.
That was well shy of forecasts for a decline of 2.0 percent following the 6.9 percent increase in January.
On a yearly basis, building approvals climbed 23.2 percent - also missing expectations for 27.9 percent after surging 34.6 percent in the previous month.
Approvals for private sector houses fell 2.1 percent on month and climbed 21.8 percent on year to 9,293. Approvals excluding houses dropped 8.7 percent on month and jumped 32.7 percent on year to 7,146.
The value of total approvals fell 0.3 percent on month. The value of residential building approvals fell 0.2 percent, while the value of non-residential building approvals lost 0.5 percent.
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AUDUSD M5 : 25 pips price movement by AUD - Building Approvals news event
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newdigital, 2014.04.02 14:42
2014-04-02 12:15 GMT (or 14:15 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change]
- past data is 178K
- forecast data is 195K
- actual data is 191K according to the latest press release
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)
==========
U.S. Private Sector Job Growth Falls Just Of Estimates In March
Employment in the U.S. private sector showed a notable increase in the month of March, according to a report released by payroll processor ADP on Wednesday, with the report also showing a substantial upward revision to the job growth in the previous month.
ADP said private sector employment increased by 191,000 jobs in March following an upwardly revised increase of 178,000 jobs in February.
While the job growth in March came in slightly below estimates for an addition of 195,000 jobs, the job growth in February was well above the previously reported increase of 139,000 jobs.
AUDUSD M5 : 17 pips range price movement by USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news event
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newdigital, 2014.04.03 09:04
2014-04-03 00:30 GMT (or 02:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - Trade Balance]
- past data is 1.39B
- forecast data is 0.85B
- actual data is 1.20B according to the latest press release
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for AUD in our case)
==========
Australia Has A$1.20 Billion Trade Surplus
Australia posted a seasonally adjusted merchandise trade surplus of A$1.20 billion February, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday - down 14 percent on month.
That topped forecasts for a surplus of A$850 million following the downwardly revised surplus of A$1.392 billion in January (originally A$1.433 billion).
Exports were roughly flat on month at A$29.970 billion, up from A$29.76 billion in the previous month.
Non-rural goods added A$420 million (2 percent). Net exports of goods under merchanting remained steady at A$15 million.
Rural goods fell A$157 million (4 percent) and non-monetary gold fell A$133 million (10 percent). Services credits fell A$10 million.
Imports added 1.0 percent to A$28.770 billion, up from A$28.33 billion a month earlier.
Capital goods climbed A$791 million (15 percent) and non-monetary gold surged A$109 million (43 percent).
Intermediate and other merchandise goods fell A$531 million (5 percent) and consumption goods fell A$58 million (1 percent). Services debits added A$3 million.
Also on Thursday, the ABS said that the total value of retail sales in Australia was up a seasonally adjusted 0.2 percent on month in February, coming in at A$22.972 billion.
That missed forecasts for an increase of 0.3 percent following the 1.2 percent jump in January.
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AUDUSD M5 : 35 pips price movement by AUD - Trade Balance news event
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newdigital, 2014.04.04 09:49
Trading the News: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (adapted from dailyfx article)
- U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) to Increase 200K; Unemployment Rate to Slip to 6.6%.
- February NFP Exceeded Market Expectations for First Time in Three-Months.
The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report may in still a bullish outlook
for the dollar (bearish EUR/USD) as employment is expected to increase
another 200K in March, while the jobless rate is anticipated to narrow
to an annualized 6.6% from 6.7%.
What’s Expected:
Why Is This Event Important:
Indeed, a material pickup in job growth may put increased pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later, but the reserve currency may struggle to hold its ground should the NFP report dampen the outlook for growth and inflation.
The resilience in private sector consumption along with the ongoing decline in planned job cuts may generate a positive employment report, and a large uptick in job growth may highlight an improved forecast for the USD as the Fed continues to see a stronger recovery in 2014.
Nevertheless, the persistent slack in the real economy paired with the
downtick in business confidence may drag on NFPs, and a dismal print may
trigger a sharp selloff in the greenback as it weighs on interest rate
expectations.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish USD Trade: NFP Climb 200K+; Unemployment Slips to 6.6%
- Need to see red, five-minute candle following the NFP print to consider a short trade on EUR/USD
- If market reaction favors a long dollar trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position
- Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
- Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit
- Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade
- Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction
EUR/USD Daily
- Risks Larger Correction After Failed Attempts to Close Above 1.3800
- Relative Strength Index Carving Bearish Trend
- Interim Resistance: 1.3960-70 (61.8 expansion)
- Interim Support: 1.3650 (78.6% expansion) to 1.3660 (61.8 retracement)
U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) February 2014 :
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newdigital, 2014.04.04 14:39
2014-04-04 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]
- past data is 197K
- forecast data is 200K
- actual data is 192K according to the latest press release
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)
==========
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AUDUSD M5 : 34 pips price movement by USD - Non-Farm Employment Change news event
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This pair is on primary bullish for D1 timeframe during the long time. Price was stopped by 0.9271 resistance level on D1 timeframe and 0.9294 resistance on H4 timeframe.
The correction within primary bullish was already started on H4 timeframe on Friday and price is ranging between 0.9294 resistance and 0.9225 support levels.
W1 timeframe. Chinkou Span line of Ichimoku indicator is coming very close to historical price from below to above for future possible breakout (rally within primary W1 bearish). If W1 price will cross 0.9451 resistance (Sinkou Span A line of Ichimoku indicator which is the border of the cloud/kumo) so we may see the reversal of the price movement from bearish to primary bullish on W1 timeframe.
If D1 price will break 0.9271 resistance on D1 close bar so the primary bullish to be continuing (good to open sell trade).If not so the ranging market condition together with correction within primary bullish may be started on D1.
UPCOMING EVENTS (high/medium impacted news events which may be affected on AUDUSD price movement for this coming week)
2014-03-31 00:00 GMT (or 02:00 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - New Home Sales]
2014-03-31 00:30 GMT (or 02:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - Private Sector Credit]
2014-03-31 13:45 GMT (or 15:45 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Chicago PMI]
2014-03-31 13:55 GMT (or 15:55 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Fed Chair Yellen Speech]
2014-04-01 01:00 GMT (or 03:00 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - Manufacturing PMI]
2014-04-01 01:45 GMT (or 03:45 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI]
2014-04-01 03:30 GMT (or 05:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - Cash Rate]
2014-04-01 14:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI]2014-04-02 00:30 GMT (or 02:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - Building Approvals]
2014-04-02 12:15 GMT (or 14:15 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change]
2014-04-03 00:30 GMT (or 02:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - Trade Balance]
2014-04-03 00:30 GMT (or 02:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - Retail Sales]
2014-04-03 01:00 GMT (or 03:00 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - Non-Manufacturing PMI]
2014-04-03 02:00 GMT (or 04:00 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - RBA Gov Stevens Speech]
2014-04-03 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Trade Balance]
2014-04-03 14:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI]
2014-04-04 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]
Please note : some US (and CNY) high/medium impacted news events (incl speeches) are also affected on AUDUSD price movement
SUMMARY : bullish
TREND : bullish
Intraday Chart