Daily Market Reviews by MAYZUS - page 18
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07 April 2014: Markets Are Digesting Last Weeks Events
DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.
The last trading week was filled with important economic events and publications of macroeconomic statistical data, which influenced the situation in the stock and currency markets.
European stock markets finished the week rather optimistically, and by the end of the trading session, the British index, FTSE 100, and Germany's DAX, increased by 0,70% and the French CAC 40 added 0,79%. The regional indicator STXE 600 increased, in turn, by 0,60% and was closed at the highest level since January 2008 at 339,18 points, having added around 1,60% within a week.
At the same time, the situation in the American stock market was not as positive and finished in negative territory. Mainly, it was pushed down by weak statistics. The labor market data appeared to be worse than the consensus forecast. Last month 192 thousand jobs were created, against the expected 200 thousand. Additionally, the unemployment rate rose from 6,6% to 6,7%.
As a result, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0,96% and was closed on a level of 16412,71 points, the S&P 500 fell by 1,25% to the level of 1865,09 points, and the biggest loss of the day was obtained by Nasdaq Composite Index, which lost 2,60% and was closed on the level of 4127,73 points.
Commodities are also down this morning, Brent and WTI are losing 1,05% and 0,59% accordingly, traded on prices of $105,51 and $99,87 per barrel. Gold is down by 0,24% on the level of $1300,41 per troy ounce, and silver is traded on a price of $19,86 per troy ounce and is decreasing by 0,45%.
Among the interesting publications today which require attention, is the data on industrial production in Germany, which, in February, increased by 0,4%, against an expected 0,3%. The previous change was revised from 0,8% to 0,7%.
Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd
09 April 2014: Movements In The Markets Are In Line With The News Flow
After two losing days, the U.S. market bounced and ended the trading session in positive territory. The Dow Jones Industrial Average index added 0,06% and finished the trading session at 16256,14 points, the S&P 500 rose by 0,38% to the level of the 1851,96 points, while the index of high-tech companies, Nasdaq, increased by 0,81% and was closed at 4112,99 points.
In the meantime, the European trading session was influenced by the news coming from the IMF and indices closed the trading day in red territory. The British FTSE 100 lost 0,49%, the French CAC 40 decreased by 0,25%, while Germany's DAX was down by 0,21%. The Regional indicator STXE 600 decreased, in turn, by 0,3% and was closed at a level of 333,85 points.
Yesterday, the International Monetary Fund presented updated projections for global growth for 2014 and 2015, having decreased the world GDP this year to the level of 3,6%, the last projections were based on the level of 3,7%. The outlook for global growth in 2015 dropped from 4% to 3,9%. The main reason for the revision was a slowdown in the economy in countries such as Russia and Brazil.
The geopolitical factor on the conflict between Russia and Ukraine at the current moment only positively affects quotations of oil, giving it support due to speculation regarding the transportation of raw materials from Russia to the EU. This morning, oil dropped slightly back from the levels that had been reached, and is traded on $107,19 per barrel on Brent, and $101,39 on WTI, decreasing by 0,40% and 0,41% accordingly.
Gold is up by 0,11%, traded on a price of $1310,50 per troy ounce, and silver is losing 0,63%, and is traded on a level of $19,93 per troy ounce.
Today, investors attention may be attracted to the protocol of the last meeting of FOMC, which shows the growing number of supporters of a faster increase of the rates, or at least a more detailed discussion of the labor market potentials and risks to financial stability. If either are discussed,this could potentially return interest to the U.S. currency.
10 April 2014: FOMC Protocols Inspired Investors
DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.
Yesterday, we emphasized that special attention should be paid to the publication of protocols of the last meeting of the FOMC, which, as a result, helped the American stock market to finish the trading day with an increase.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average index increased by 1,11% to the level of 16437,18 points, the S&P 500 added 1,09% and was closed at the level of 1872,18 points, and the index of high-tech companies, Nasdaq Composite, moved up on 1,72% and reached the level of 4183,90 points.
Minutes from the last FED meeting showed that the majority of the members changed their attitude towards the situation in the U.S. According to the protocols, most of the members revised the GDP growth forecast downwards, and expressed concerns about achieving the inflation target. In addition, the regulator took the decision to abolish the unemployment rate at 6,5%, as one of the signals to higher interest rates.
The European trading session was also rather positive and the majority of the stock indices were able to recoup losses of the previous days. The British, FTSE 100 rose by 0,70%, the French CAC 40 increased by 0,40%, and Germany's DAX added 0,20% . The Regional indicator STXE 600, in turn, increased by 0,40% and was closed on the level of 335,16 points. Among the published statistical data in the region, Germany's trade surplus in February can be noted, which was at the level of 15,7 billion euros, while analysts were expecting a surplus of 17,8 billion euros.
Today is expected to be quite a quiet day in relation to the publication of macroeconomic statistical data, so the participants of the markets are going to look for external information, which could influence the movements in the markets. As previously mentioned, the U.S. started its corporate reporting season, and despite the controversial start with Alcoa, so far the results are rather good.
MAYZUS Daily Technical Levels
EUR/USD - during the day there is a risk of a technical correction
Our turning point is the level of 1.38700
Our preference: Sell the EUR/USD below the level of 1.38400 with the key targets being: 1.38200 and 1.38000.
Alternative scenario: If the resistance level of 1.38700 is breached up with success, then the pair could rise to 1.38900 and 1.39200.
Analysis: The technical indicators point that the EUR/USD pair is overbought and will give a signal to sell soon.
This information is an analytical review of Capital and FX markets. The material presented, and the information contained, is investment research and should in no way be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Investment Firms Law 144(I)/2007 of the Republic of Cyprus, or any other form of personal advice, which relates to certain types of transactions, with certain types of financial instruments.
MAYZUS Daily Technical Levels
GBP/USD – during the day there is a risk of a technical correctio
Our turning point is the level of 1.68170
Our preference: Sell the GBP/USD pair below the level of 1.67500, with the nearest targets being 1.67000, and 1.66600.
Alternative scenario: If the level of 1.68170 is breached up with success, then the pair could rise to 1.68400, and 1.68800.
Analysis: The technical indicators are in the overbought area and will give a signal to sell soon.
This information is an analytical review of Capital and FX markets. The material presented, and the information contained, is investment research and should in no way be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Investment Firms Law 144(I)/2007 of the Republic of Cyprus, or any other form of personal advice, which relates to certain types of transactions, with certain types of financial instruments.
MAYZUS Daily Technical Levels
USD/JPY – growth is possibl
Our turning point is the level of 101.500
Our preference: Buy the USD/JPY pair above the level of 102.100, with the nearest targets being 102.500, 102.800 and 103.200.
Alternative scenario: If the support level of 101.500 is breached down with success, then the pair could drop to 101.000, and 100.700.
Analysis: The technical indicators point that the USD/JPY pair is oversold.
This information is an analytical review of Capital and FX markets. The material presented, and the information contained, is investment research and should in no way be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Investment Firms Law 144(I)/2007 of the Republic of Cyprus, or any other form of personal advice, which relates to certain types of transactions, with certain types of financial instruments.
MAYZUS Daily Technical Levels
AUD/USD – during the day there is a risk of a technical correctio
Our turning point is the level of 0.94400
Our preference: Sell the pair below the level of 0.93850, with the nearest targets being 0.93400, 0.93000 and 0.92600.
Alternative scenario: If the resistance level of 0.94400 is breached up with success, then the pair could rise to the following levels: 0.94600 and 0.95000.
Analysis: The technical indicators point that the AUD/USD pair is overbought.
This information is an analytical review of Capital and FX markets. The material presented, and the information contained, is investment research and should in no way be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Investment Firms Law 144(I)/2007 of the Republic of Cyprus, or any other form of personal advice, which relates to certain types of transactions, with certain types of financial instruments.
MAYZUS Daily Technical Levels
XAU/USD – during the day there is a risk of a technical correctio
Our turning point is the level of $1320
Our preference: Sell Gold below the level of $1313, with the nearest targets being $1307 and $1300.
Alternative scenario: If the resistance level of $1320 is breached up with success, then Gold could rise to $1330 and $1340.
Analysis: The technical indicators are in the overbought area and will give a signal to sell soon.
This information is an analytical review of Capital and FX markets. The material presented, and the information contained, is investment research and should in no way be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Investment Firms Law 144(I)/2007 of the Republic of Cyprus, or any other form of personal advice, which relates to certain types of transactions, with certain types of financial instruments.
MAYZUS Daily Technical Levels
XAG/USD – during the day there is a risk of a technical correctio
Our turning point is the level of $20.15
Our preference: Sell Silver below the level of $19.95, with the nearest levels being $19.80 and $19.65.
Alternative scenario: Iftheresistance levelof$20.15 is breached up with success, then Silver could rise to $20.30 and $20.60.
Analysis:The stochastic indicator is in the overbought area and will give a signal to sell soon.
This information is an analytical review of Capital and FX markets. The material presented, and the information contained, is investment research and should in no way be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Investment Firms Law 144(I)/2007 of the Republic of Cyprus, or any other form of personal advice, which relates to certain types of transactions, with certain types of financial instruments.
11 April 2014: IS ‘AUSSIE’ GETTING READY FOR CORRECTION
MAYZUS Daily Technical Levels
By Yuriy Maevskiy: Senior Analyst in Investment Research Department
Australian dollar’s rate was growing on Thursday: it added over 0.28%. At the moment, 1 AUD costs 0.9416 USD
‘Aussie’ has grown by 2% since the beginning of April in comparison to the USD. It happened after the release of the positive information about the Australian econom
Positive news included improvement of the situation on the labor market. An unemployment level dropped from 6% to 5.8%.
Another factor that affected AUDUSD positively was the decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep an interest rate at 2.5%.
However, we think that AUDUSD’s growth is almost over and that we will witness a serious technical correction in the nearest future. It is indicated by both fundamental and technical factors
A slowdown of the economic activity in China and Japan, where Australia delivers almost 50% of its export, is a fundamental factor.
An annual value of Chinese import dropped by 11.3%, while experts were waiting for the 2.4% growth. Export from China has decreased by 6.6%, which also does not meet experts’ expectations of 4% growth
Situation in Japan is not great either. A number of automotive orders dropped by 8.8% in March, while a decrease by 3% only was predicted.
Another factor that indicates a slowdown of both world trade and Chinese economy is a dynamics of Baltic Dry index. It shows the cost of the shipping rates of the major raw goods and is a leading indicator of the world trade condition.
The index breached a 2000 points threshold in the middle of December 2013 and then started to decrease. It got to the minimum of 1000 points in the first half of February 2014. AUD then dropped below 0.9000. Baltic Dry kept getting to the local maximums in the beginning of April, and it is possible that Australian dollar’s rate will start decreasing again
Technical factors show that AUDUSD is locally overbought. Bearish divergence on H4 chart means that a trend will change soon. Technical indicators are going to give a signal to sell. Nearest downwards targets are located at 0.93600, 0.93000 and 0.92200.
Situation on the futures market doesn’t favor AUDUSD as well
According to the report of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (Commitments of Traders), a net hedgers’ position (blue on the chart) kept decreasing and got to 6,118.00 contracts in the middle of last week. 87,769.00 contracts were opened in the middle of January 2013. Australian dollar has started to improve at the end of January as well
A significant decrease of the net hedgers’ position shows that market participants are expecting a decrease of AUDUSD’s rate in the nearest future
A relatively high level of the net large speculators’ positions (green on the chart) also indicates a soon decrease of AUDUSD
Same situation took place in the middle of October 2013, when a long-term correction has started and lasted until the end of January 2014.
AUD can continue growing after the technical correction. Nearest resistance levels are located at 0.94500, 0.95200 and 0.96120.
This information is an analytical review of Capital and FX markets. The material presented, and the information contained, is investment research and should in no way be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Investment Firms Law 144(I)/2007 of the Republic of Cyprus, or any other form of personal advice, which relates to certain types of transactions, with certain types of financial instruments.