A-B-C-D Trade - page 93
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Surpassed FE 161.8 price of 1.3404 and bounced off regular 161.8.
Next is Dec 31st high 1.3424 resistance which should provide a bounce.
Jan 4th EUR/USD Recap
Picking up from last post, we plotted an ABC from swings 09:35/10:05/12:00 GMT. Swing C price was exactly at the 61.8 fib. We attached a 5-min chart for better viewing.
We knew 1.3324 was the next resistance level from Dec 31st high. The ABC produced FE 78.6 at price of 1.3425. We anticipated a bounce off of this fib, or worst-case the next FE 100 = 1.3438, which is the same as the regular 138.8 extension fib (of A-B).
Place a lurking entry just below 1.3424. Stop-loss can be Just above the FE 100, plus spread and cushion. It overshot resistance price a little, probably due to the triggering of stop-loss orders, marking top at 1.3432.
Partial/majority/all of position exit target at previous 12:45 GMT pivot 1.3387. Can use 38.2 fib of 1.3394 (see below for plot). This would be about +25 net profit, depending on your fill. Move S/L to at least break-even.
Trend the balance of the position by using fibs and/or a trend indicator such as the Heiken Ashi Smooth (HAS), or Hull Moving Average (HMA) Russian Color. Fib retracement plot can be then-session low to high (per next paragraph)..
Additional analysis include:
Plot retracement fib tool at 08:45 low 1.3332 and 13:15 high 1.3432. This resulted in 138.2 = 1.3294, which is where EUR/USD fell to by 16:05 GMT. This represents approximately 125 net pips from the entry point.
That price level is the same as the 200% retracement fib from A-B.
Daily chart plot from low of Aug 24th and Nov 4th produces a 50% fib at 1.3434.
4-Hour GannBox_144 has horizontal mid-line at 1.3422, which is labeled #72. It also has the 3/8th horizontal line (#52) at 1.3308, which market is respecting as support. We’ll post an updated GannBox in the Gann Is The Man thread.
A tight mini-ABC plot was 12:00/12:25/12:45, which produced FE 127 = 1.3426 and FE 161.8 = 1.3437, which is about the same as the first ABC’s FE 100 of 1.3438, therefore this further confirms where to place stop-loss.
Fibo Fan plot (on 15-min chart) 07:45 low of 1.3250 and 13:15 high 1.3432 produced 78.6% diagonal fan line at bottom at 16:00 candle. The low and high for plot was unarguable, and this fib is the same as produced by a horizontal fib plot, when the 2 converged there..
Fibo Fan on 4-Hour chart plots:
Fan pointing down: from high of Nov 22nd 1.3785 and low of Nov 23rd 12:00. This provided channel between the 61.8% and 50% fan lines, which contained recent price activity.
Fan pointing up: Nov 30th 12:00 low 1.2968 and Dec 17th 08:00 high 1.3359.
Early Asian sees breakout of EUR/USD of 1.3294 support, testing to the downside after entire U.S. session spent in consolidation.
Simply plot ABC swings 00:00/00:35/01:00 and we have:
FE 61.8 1.3271 (just bounced and same as 161.8 per last post's plot)
FE 78.6 = 1.3264
FE 100 = 1.3255
Etc.
1.3284 is the 61.8 retrace fib of C-D
The 02:30 15-min candle is a gravestone doji.
Our target is FE 78.6 1,3264 + 4 pips to cover spread and cushion. Partial exit may occur prior to that., Currently at 38.2 fib, which represents a net 6/10th% gain on initial 1.5% risk on S/L.
Exit 1.3370, as USD/JPY looked too bearish pulling down up on EUR/USD. Ahead starts volatile period at 06:00.
Didn't realize Australia's floods covered more space than France and Germany combined. Lot of shorts on AUD/USD, and could explain some of the drag down on EUR/USD during Asian.
ABC swings 00:00/01:45/03:25, with FE 100 = .9976. Sure to be a bounce at 1.0000 (FE 61.8) first however.
It is now 07:00 GMT and EUR/USD and AUD/USD looks to be ready to retest pivot levels downward.
OK, EUR/USD aggressively testing Point B of 1.3262.
Modified larger swings = 00:00/01:45/03:15.
We have FE 100 = 1.3225, same as regular 161.8 extension (since pullback was 38.2).