A-B-C-D Trade - page 89
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USD/JPY broke support.]
USD/JPY
1-Hour MurreyMath1.0 has 82.23 as the 1/8th.
Fib extension:
High = 01:00 GMT 82.73
Low = 07:30 GMT 82.36
Regular 138.2 = 83.22
161.8 = 82.13
15-min chart attached. Black fibs are aforementioned plot whereby the 50% was reported at 82.36.
Next fib down was 61.8% 81.86.
As USD/JPY broke the Asian Low, we had eyes on near-term S&R plot with retracement tool (blue fibs):
High = 00:00 82.76
Low = 11:00 82.08 *
* Moved low of plot from Asian Low after it pivoted. This produced regular extension level of 138.2% = 81.82, which was hit precisely during 11:30 candle period.
Pair made a retrace back up above the Asian Low during mid-Euro and U.S. sessions.
Attached is 15-min chart.
EUR/USD breakout of the Asian High was short-lived, gaining 20 pips and stopping at 1.3274, which is the 1/3rd line from our 4-hour GannBox.
The fib retracement tool plot was Asian session low = 00:00 1.3186 and Asian session high = 03:30 1.3254.
Breakout of Asian Low occurred during 14:30 candle period. Extension pivoted at 1.3136 before hitting the 161.8 price of 1.3100 during 16:30 candle.
An ABC from top also had the FE 127 1.3109 (fibs not shown on attached chart).
Lurking bounce traders took bounce off that round number for 34 gross pips, which is the 23.6% retrace fib from the day's high.
*******
USD strength appeared despite below expectation of U.S. Consumer Confidence. This could be a result of European/U.S. session reaction to China's interest rate hike.
*******
Edit: The EUR/USD high hit early Euro session is the 50% fib level from plot of Dec 14th high and Dec 23rd low.
EUR/USD made its bounce from bottom of 1.3038 just prior to open of Asian.
A small ABCD extension to the 61.8 occurred to establish the Asian High at 1.3156 during the 07:30 candle.
A large pullback produced Swing C. Here are swings:
A = 00:00 low 1.3083
B = 07:30 high 1.3156
C = 10:30 low 1.3108
FE 161.8 = 1.3224 (just hit during 18:00 candle).
Pair attempting to extend beyond this level, thus we need to plot a new, tight ABC. THis results in FE 100 = 1.3245, FE 127 = 1.3263, FE 161.8 = 1,3286.
Keep above ABC plot for more resistance points too.
USD/JPY also had a clean ABC form during Euro session, after breakout of Asian Low. As with previous post, use 15-min chart. Swings at 12:30/14:30/16:00 GMT.
FE 100 = 81.67 (just hit), now probing below this toward FE 127 = 81.57, and FE 161.8 = 81.43
Edit: The FE 100 is same as regular 138.2 from Dec 28th 14:00 low to Dec 28th 21:15 high plot with fib retracement tool.
This means that the Swing C could have been anticipated in advance. Remember that post (conduct search in this thread). If we have 3 out of the 4 dimensions, it can be done.
Discussion on assessing the probabilities of Swing C can be found on page 55, post #541.
We anticipate a bounce (down) off of EUR/USD Dec 28th Euro session high of 1.3274, should it hurdle Dec 28th Asian high 1.3254, where it is stalled now.
While EUR/USD has just retraced from its high, let's recap ascent on 15-min chart, with our observations.
1) U.S. session Low = Dec 29th 16:00 1.3131 and High = 1,3239, Regular extension of 138.2 = 1.3306
2) ABC
A = Dec 30th 07:30 low 1.3223
B = 10:30 high 1.3265
C = 11:45 low 1.3241
FE 161.8 = 1.3309 (hit 14:45)
3) ABC: 19:15/01:00/07:30 resulted in FE 161.8 = 1.3310. This was plot if working breakout of Asian High, since Swing B is Asian High. 42 gross pips to FE 161.8 target, 19 pips to FE 100.
4) Asian Low/High plot with retrace fib tool produced regular extension of 200% at 1,3313 (hit 14:45)
5) Pair did bounce off of the aforementioned 1.3274 for 18 gross pips profit to downside (after 10-pip probe above), before resuming extension.
6) 1.3308 is the #54 horizontal line on the 4-Hour GannBox plot, equivalent to 3/8th.
7) 1.3313 is the 180-degree price on the 1-Hour chart with SQ9.
8) 1.3312 is 202.5-degree level on Daily chart with SQ9, as well as near the 23.6 fib of 1.3315.
9) 1.3306 is MurreyMathV1.0 8/8th line. 1.3275 is 7/8th.
Here's something a little different. We mentioned the indicator AutoFibAutoTrend. Attached is a 5-min chart illustrating the channel it plotted with upswing.
We can see it breach the lower channel line during the 15:20 candle, then retrace back to that line.
We would plot an ABC from
A = 14:55 high 1.3314
B = 15:20 low 1.3274
C = 15:30 high 1.3287
FE 61.8 = 1.3263 (bounced 15:40)
Pair just probed below, hitting area of next FE 78.6 1.3256.
2nd chart 15-min
When we switch chart to 15-minute interval, we can see recent probe to downside stop at lower channel. We can use this for any breakout to downside from current position.