A-B-C-D Trade - page 68
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Next support fib at FE 236.2 price of 1.3336 from aforementioned ABC plot.
Now that pair pivoted at end of Euro session, we can use session high/low for regular extension plot which results in:
138.2 = 1.3324
161.8 = 1.3277
A tighter, more conservative ABC plot is 14:00/15:30/15.45 or simply high/low of A-B results in;
138.2 = 1.3360
161.8 = 1.3336
Levels about same as ABC plot's FE 78.6 and FE 100, since pullback was exactly 38.2%.
Enemy is time, being near end of New York.....can lose steam. Take some profit or majority of lots here.
DAILY chart has EMA200 at 1.3380, where EUR/USD is consolidating now at 17:45.
1.3572 is also 50% fib from plot of:
Low = Aug 24th 1.2587
High = Oct 15th 1.4157
It's been a strong 2-day downturn from pivot high on daily chart. Will try to catch up more later. Started with Ireland, and while Japan was on holiday, the Korean encounter.
!.3494 was breached, and from swing trade perspective, this means further gains to downside has higher probability.
1.3333 is significant support as pivot high on Aug 8th. Strong bounce is highly likely.
Mis-spoke about CAD data which was positive but ignored by market, due to the other concerns. Long nights and double sessions will do that.
Meanwhile reports out of the FED Minutes, of which the big highlights were;
1) Participants (of meeting) were aware and anticipated effect of QE2 on USD, weakening it.
I don't see how they could deny it, but they did. Especially since the President flat out said he wanted to see exports double in within 5 years. That can't happen with a strong USD.
2) They saw no threat of QE2 causing DEFLATION. This is confusing as it relates to recent defense by Bernanke that it won't cause INFLATION.
3) FED projected unemployment rate at
2011 = 9.0
2012 = 7.9 (revised up)
I forgot the rest, but it should be in an article forthcoming.
EUR/USD breaking to downside again. We received a signal at 1.3394, with S/L 1.3415 via interesting indicator using S&R trend lines. Target fib levels with bottom of 1.3359, previous significant low.
Will upload indicator here or indicator thread in due course.
EUR/JPY & USD/JPY following suite for the time being, but expect one cross to decouple soon.
Correction: indicator provided by long-time poster here already. We are monitoring signals and will provide assessment, etc.
More live analysis. USD/JPY hammering away at lower edge of Ichimoku cloud on 15-min. This affecting EUR/USD to upside.
EUR/JPY moving in tandem with EUR/USD now. This is example of cross-pair correlation
USD/JPY finding support, at least for now at 50% fib 83.07.
EUR/USD back to its own 50% of 1.3394 from late Asian plot.
As we enter the European session, we have a Portuguese General strike today. Another PIIGS nation with some of its citizens protesting austerity measures.
First set of data at 09:00 and 09:30.
EUR/USd bounced off pivot high of 1.3412 and now attempting revisit low of 1.3377 at 08:12 GMT price now 1.3388.
Probing below 1.3377, next near-term support at 1.3359/64.