A-B-C-D Trade - page 67
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After a pullback of 38.2%, EUR/USD retesting FE 61.8 of 1.3591.
U.S. stock market also being hit by insider trading probes.
The FE levels mentioned on earlier post is:
FE 61.8 = 1.3597
FE 78.6 = 1.3579 (hit 17:30)
FE 100 = 1.3557
FE 127 = 1.3528
FE 161.8 = 1.3492
Our Swing C positioning was a little off, as we hurried in an attempt to give you info on the fly, while also pushing buttons.
EUR/USD has more room to downside. Pivoted at 02:00 price of 1.3591 and now attempting to revisit session low 1.3545.
Beyond that Swing B are:
FE 100 = 1.3522
FE 127 = 1.3503
FE 161.8 = 1.3490
Regular extensions:
138.2 = 1.3515
161.8 = 1.3498
Key pivot low = 1.3577 from 18:15 GMT. Shorts would like to see pair tread below this in attempt to extend further down.
Nov 16th low 1.3494 is significant.
Take-profit therefore might be preferred just above round number 1.3500 that would cover spread and cushion.
Daily chart shows pullback was at 38%. Break of Swing B 1.3494 and hurdling the EMA 200 would project extension levels including the FE 100 = 1.2945
At 07:00 German GDP.
Swing C was invalidated by upswing to 78.6% retrace fib of 1.3605.
Also keep regular extension from early Asian high/low which produces:
138.2 1.3519
161.8 = 1.3502
German data at 07:00 in 10 minutes, so it will probably be it here until data reaction. Pair made it to 1.3525 and some traders now exiting ahead of data, creating bounce.
EUR/USD pivoted after data and looks to be sniffing to resume downward trend that was interrupted by 07:00 German data.
Reversed at 1.3577 07:15 and now 1.3552.
Ahead is 09:00 medium Euro data, and big ones at 12:00 (CAD CPI) and 13:30 (US GDP)
News about 2 hours ago regarding North and South Korea exchanging fire. Caution as this has/can create whipsaws.
EUR/JPY testing resistance above 113.53. Yen under pressure
As Euro session opens, we need to measure extension for EUR/JPY.
138,2 = 113.83
161.8 = 113.99
EUR/USD testing 1.3400 threshold at 15:15 GMT. Flight to safety due to Korea and positive US data supported downward thrust in pair. End of European session should provide a rest.
The wider fib plot is:
1-Hour chart
High = Nov 22nd 07:00 1,3743
Low = Nov 22nd 18:00 1.3576
Asian Low = 06:45 1.3525
138.2 = 1.3496
161.8 = 1.3448
CAD data was negative at 12:00, and probably was chief reason that drove EUR/USD (pulled by USD/CAD) through Asian Low.
The 138.2 price is where we targeted near-term (intra-day) since data due out. Reached this area just prior to 13:30 US GDP release.
The 161.8 price of 1.3448 is equal to previous significant low of Nov 16th. We made mention that this is a key support price that can lead to larger gains for the USD against the Euro (swing trade basis).
We like 1.3251 a strong support since it is the regular 138.2 extension of plot from
High = Nov 9th 12:00 1.3973
Low = Nov 16th 18:00 1,3448
As usual, we'll keep an eye on more recent ABC swings in effort to be more precise.
As far as current move, the 15-min ABC swings of 09:15/12:30/12:45 resulted in
FE 161.8 = 1.3398 (hit just now 15:30)