A-B-C-D Trade - page 336
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SDC plot using 2 bounce points off dips 1-28 & 2-20. Swing from 2-15/3-1 fortunately bounced up to resistance at SDC mid-channel 3-5 candle. Some price feeds, including GMT+2 charts, had bounce of 31.4%.
A different AUD/USD 4-Hour SDC plot, using2 dips:
Feb 21st 16:00 & Feb 27th 08:00
Confirmation of plot includes Feb 28th 00:00 high resistance at SDC upper channel.
Align fib channel to full size of SDC, projects 100% expansion, which was hit Mar 7th 12:00 period.
This high intersected the horizontal high from Feb 28th 08:00.
Decline touched diagonal and horizontal 31.4% retrace.
Weekly Chart
A = Feb 19, 2012 high 1.3485
B = July 22, 2012 low 1.2041
C = Jan 27, 2013 high 1.3710
Last week's low and this week's low, thus far respected support at the -50 mid-channel.
This explains the dip slightly below our daily chart's SDC lower channel. It was contained by our typical 12% S/L level (diagonal of course) when fib channel is aligned from the SDC's mid-channel to lower channel.
Chart 2:
Point B can be considered the Head of an inverted Head & Shoulders formation.
Plotting a trendline (white) at the "armpits" Point A (week of Feb 19, 2012 high) and week of Sept 16th high, traders can opt to enter a BUY upon breach. This occurred Dec 2nd and 9th.
After the ascent to Point C, price declines to aforementioned 31.4% retrace level. This coincides with the area of the trendline.
EUR/USD Weekly chart.
To find Point C, the Jan 27, 2013 high:
Plot SDC using dips of
week of Jan 8, 2012 & week of July 22, 2012
Stack fib channel (align) on to full size of SDC. Point C is the 100% expansion.
Today (Friday) features U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment at 13:30 GMT. This is (potentially) the most volatile of all scheduled economic data releases.
Time to stay on the sidelines, unless:
you have been trained to trade this event;
or have a very large stop-loss to withstand any whipsaws, spikes, and slippage.
Spreads often widen dramatically during high-impact events such as this. Imagine it widening to 30 pips or more. It can blow out your stop-loss, and drag it further than initial setting. You will be responsible for price it fills at.
For example, if your S/L is 20 pips, and it is dragged to 50 pips:
20 pips = 2% risk original S/L
50 pips = 5% risk (loss) that you will have to pay
Mixed data for GBP @ 09:30 this morning, caused spike down with GBP/USD. Recovery made soon thereafter, in often seen volatile price action during date releases.
Bigger picture = today's low should produce a larger bounce up to approx. 1.4970.
Bold extension by GBP/USD, partially driven by data. Resistance in area of 1.5080, with decline of maximum 1.5000 near-term.
Let's clean up some unfinished business:
Silver: Our Andrew’s Pitchfork plot of Mar 5th, and subsequent bounce off the lower fork, had positive results. In fact price managed to rise to the -31.4 based on FC aligned to FULL size of APF.
After the low was established on Mar 8th 12:00 candle, we understood that the handle was to be moved to Feb 20th 20:00. This was only a small adjustment and did not affect original trade outlook.
If we made the same plot on GOLD, we would have had to extend the APF 50% to the downside.
GBP/USD, fortunately, on Mar 13th made the hit to area specified (near-term) to 1.4970.
Ford Motors decline 22-cents. However start of decline occurred about 5-cents earlier than anticipated (after cushion at entry).
Home Depot has yet to reach our stated resistance level, and thus outlook expired.
Not mentioned was GOOGLE bounce up to $825.00 level on intra-day Mar 13th.
Risk-on asset Natural Gas facing diagonal resistance NOW, with retrace to 3.694 as outlook near-term.
Note; Natural Gas EIA change in storage data released 14:30 GMT, spurring rise.
Natural Gas only stalled at our projected near-term resistance. The weekly storage data missed by a lot, and the thrust up was too strong.
It is now at the double-top area, dictated by the Nov 22nd high. There are definitely traders that "trade the news" with this weekly data release.
MurreyMath1.0 overlaid onto chart illustrates its 8/8th overbought level near today's high. Currently, NG has declined below the 7/8th.
GBP/USD retraced from 1.5118, down to 1.5068, which made our intra-day outlook miss. Pair found new vengeance to the upside during this morning's European session.
MurreyMath1.0 on 15-min view had 6/8th for support previous to today's additional ratchet up. Its +1/8th was resistance at today's highs, with decline falling thus far to the 7/8th.