A-B-C-D Trade - page 335
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Correction: Plot Line A-C was dip-to-peak.
EUR/USD on the weekly chart
High = Week of Oct 23rd 1.4246
Low = July 22 1.2047
50% = 1.3146, which was hit Friday as support.
Attached is EUR/USD 15-min with session colors provided by indicator Time_Modified.
Negative EUR data 10:00/13:00 GMT gave bears reason to take pair down on Thursday (yesterday), which was further fueled by better than expected U.S. GDP 13:30 GMT. Blue boxes are European session, as customized on our chart.
MurreyMath1.0 had its 4/8th at 1.3062, which was near Thursday's Asian Low and Wednesday's U.S. Low 1.3052.
Friday's (today) EURO-ZONE Unemployment joined missed consensus at 09:00 to pound pair further down toward week's end. Price touched the 1/8th MML during 15:00.
Overall, the MurreyMath1.0 framed the proper Overbought/Oversold paramters.
Thursday's Asian highs were at the 7/8th. The subsequent decline that day bounced off the 4/8th. That major support was broken today and price dove to the 1/8th.
Observation:
Home Depot stock broke out to upside, should hit resistance at $71.78, and retrace to $69.28........add cushion at entry and TP.
AUD/USd on rise, short opportunity now @ 1.01858
AUD/USd on rise, short opportunity now @ 1.01858
Tightest S/L @ 1.01945, with TP @ 1.01600
Add cushion.
Observation numbers for S/L & TP will change as time elapses beyond 23:59 GMT today, as it is based on a slope (going downward).
Since the slope is downward, it is O.K.to set S/L & TP and go on to other things (set and forget), as slope change will be in favor of trade direction.
****** AUD Rate Decision 03:30 GMT.*********
Small S/L positions should stay on sidelines.
The AUD/USD example encountered volatility that stopped out the SELL position prior to the Tokyo (Asian session) open.
This was intended to be a quick trade prior to the rate decision at 03:30. The Reward/Risk ratio was good at 2:1, and therefore can justify attempts such as this.
Gross TP = 26
Gross S/L = 9
After spread and cushion, net R/R about 2:1
The oversold/overbought crowd clearly saw oversold conditions and may have been long with a plan to exit prior data.
Fundamental traders may have had a conclusion of a bullish tone with Australia's central bank.
Unless you have been trained to "trade the news" (data), its best to stay out during release periods. A large stop-loss is the exception, and provides a better chance to withstand any whipsaws or spikes.
***
Post-rate decision and verbiage, the pair respected resistance provided by a Standard Deviation Channel (SDC) plot using 2 dips (on 4-hour chart), per attached:
Feb 21st 21:00 and Mar 4th 04:00
We've also overlaid the MurreyMath1.0, resulting in its 4/8th level at precisely the peak during the 04:00 candle period, which intersected the upper channel of the SDC.
The longs could use this for exit, while the shorts can trade the bounce down.
Here are 2 charts of EUR/USD daily time-frame.
Chart 1 plots a SDC using the obvious 2 peaks from Sept 17th and Feb 1st.
A fibo fan plot Low = July 24th 1.2041 High = Feb 1st 1.37098
After the SDC plot (2nd peak), price declined to the SDC mid-channel Feb 8th, which was a "reversion to the mean". Wasn't precise, but close enough.
After a pullback and consolidation, the downward action continued and hit the SDC lower channel during the Mar 1st candle period.
This is where it intersected the fibo fan's 50% ray.
Chart 2 overlays MurreyMath1.0 (MML). The Feb 1st high was at the 8/8th and obviously overbought. Shorts made money riding the decline to a number of support areas provided by MML or SDC.
Should price break the lower SDC channel, we can target take-profit (TP) at the 4/8th MML of 1.2695, which was also November support. The fibo fan's 61.8% ray should provide at least temporary support on a diagonal basis.
As usual, money management can make the difference. Always have a plan, and make sure the R/R is realistic and palatable.
For the stock traders....
Ford Motors opened with a gap up, at level of Feb 28th high. We see near-term resistance at 13.04 and 13.21.
This is outlook to shave 21-cents (gross before spread/commission/cushion). Make sure R/R at least 1.5:1.
4-hour Silver chart with Andrew's Pitchfork (APF) plot:
Times GMT + 2 hours
Handle = Feb 22nd 16:00 low 28.66
Upper Handle = Feb 26th 16:00 high 29.47
Lower Handle = Mar 1st 12:00 low 27.95
Today's 12:00 candle met the APF's mid channel. We proceeded to align the fib channel (FC) to the APF's mid-channel and lower channel to produce interior S&R.
The current 16:00 candle stalling at the FC mid-channel (-50) price about 28.63. A short off the upper channel to mid-channel produced about 40-cents in gross profit.
Watch for possible decline to lower channel and subsequent bounce up to at least the FC -31.4.