The London Open - page 106

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Just to say thanks Dan for all your posts on here. You may feel you're talking to yourself in here, but I read every post. I'm sure many others benefit from your analysis.

Thanks

Bloom

 

Morning all

GBP looks weak across the board this am. I mentioned last night that i added to my short position. Look for CABLE to break MS1. The Daily pivot and weekly pivot are above and the only thing supporting is this MS1. Lets smash it boys!!! The 60min 20ma is crossing the 50ma which is a bearish sign. Typical as i write GBP is looking slightly bid. Might be worth looking at EURGBP as well today.

I really think this is going to make a big push to the low 1.40s..It will take a bit of time but lets see.

GBPJPY is in a similar situation with 60min 20ma and 50ma crossing. It looks set for a move lower so keep an eye. However if it breaks weekly and daily pivot then all bets are off. That will be a very positive sign.

GOLD actually has the daily pivot above the weekly pivot and looks supported off teh weekly pivot as well as EURUSD. If cable can break lower then watch EUR and GOLD. They wont break the Weekly pivot easily so it will be volatile but wait for break, 123 and hopefully u will see some light.

The only annoyance is wall street looks bid at 8450. We know this is the general at the mom. Is cable really going to break lower with wall st banging up? MMmmmmmm. We will see so keep an eye.

As we speak GOLD making a punchy move up above pivot. Maybe a 123 there... Its early so well see how the movrning turns out. They are all looking vvvvv punchy.....Mmmmmm is this just a falsey or is this a true move.

Lets the games begin!!!

D

 

Morning all

Well i got spooked and closed out of my long term CABLE position yesterday.

I read too much, listened to too many people and got spooked!!! So what happened well it was a squeeze, got rid of all the small time players and then continued its move lower. What a bugger!"!!!

These markets are cheeky and u can never get complacent.

GOLD is back in its triangle and again will wait for break.

U know i still like my CABLE lower. This should only be a small retracement so look for a play down on teh break below the MS1.

EURUSD has broken the triangle and again this will targetthe 1.2000 soon.

USDJPY and EURJPY have broken triangles as well and look for small retracements b4 a push lower.

Watch the DOW future this am for movement in the USD.

D

 

Keep an eye on audcad for a short...

I am in just above 0.7950 with a stop at 0.8100.

Will move my stop tom am after sleep.

Its all on my daily videos.

D

 

Looks good Dan, but I missed it. To be honest (a la Bill) I've been bleeding pips all day. Wouldn't have taken AUSCAD if I'd seen it. Need a bit of 'slow and steady' and a few nights kip.

 

Hello Dan, hello everybody

Thanks Dan for all your analysis as always. I'm with Bloom and read and benefit from every post so appreciate all your thoughts and wisdom every day.

There's been a bit of chat about patience lately so thought I would add my 10p's worth.

I spent all summer sizzling in the Boiler Room with Le Pimp and other illustrious company. I did a little bit of trading, some good, some bad but still couldn't quite get my head around everything.

The summer ended and along with it those care free full-time chart watching days - back on the hamster wheel and grafting for a living. Which means only looking at charts briefly at the end of each day, or more usually only at weekends.

Well, when you are not sitting with your nose to the screen 12 hours a day staring at charts and trying to see every move as a trade you can really, really, REALLY see that if you wait, patiently, for the charts to organise themselves the trades are there. You don't have to jump in if you are not sure because the moves are there using this strategy if you wait for them.

I know, it is easy to see the moves AFTER the event, but all I'm saying, as others have said before me, take a step back, just be patient and the let the trades come to you.

Good luck with your trading - and if you haven't been in Dan's live room yet give it a go, it is just FAB-U-LOUS.

RS

 

Rolling Stone, you hit a massive nail right on the head with a sledgehammer.

Along with MM, knowing when to trade and when NOT to trade are the two most important qualities to be successful in trading. Forget your systems, strategies, methods, blackboxes etc., they are all useless if you apply them at the wrong time.

In tandem with this, is also the fact that you don't HAVE to be trading every minute/hour of the day. Along with the Monkeys, I know some professional traders who trade for their living - no trading means no profits and no money to pay the bills (or the gas for their Ferrari's!) but they don't put pressure on themselves to always be sat in front of their screens trading.

They are so in tune with the markets that they know it's every beat, it's rhythm, it's song, it's dance that they know when to be in and when to be out. After a huge market move, you will not find them at their screens the next day; they know the next day will be consolidation so they stay out. They recognise consolidation and range bound markets and either stay out or change to scalping strategies.

In my earlier futures/commodities trading I felt I had to be making trades every day otherwise I would miss the big moves that everyone talked about. So I traded every day, several times a day and YES, I caught the big moves - only going in the wrong direction! There were no computers, forums or chat rooms then so there were no external forces putting pressure on me to trade - only my ego to make millions. I didn't realise it at that time but I, yes stupid me, was my own worst enemy.

Fast forwarding to where we are now, I got into Forex and Futures again, and promised myself I would treat it as a business and not a game. Well, trading the emini S&P on 76 and 210 tick charts changed all that - what a game - the excitement of watching those bars pump up and down - fast and furious - my adrenalin was flowing thick and fast! Boy was it exciting! Only thing was, my account was going down as fast as those bars were pumping up!

Strange thing was, my mentor was making money hand over fist at the same time as I was watching mine disappear down the toilet. After analysing my trades, he told me I would never make it in trading because it was just a game to me. He recognised I was just trading for the thrill - the action - he could see that from the frequency of my trades compared to his - there were days when I would make say 5 or 7 trades where he didn't trade - why? Because the conditions were not right.

So again, I took time out, looked in the mirror and told the idiot staring back at me that you are getting one more shot and you had better make it work this time.

After 16 years of trading, studying charts, reading books, buying systems, developing systems, developing indicators etc., I researched everything I could find on the internet looking for the Holy Grail. I still didn't get it that I was the Moly Quail!!!!!!!!!

As luck would have it, I came across Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain and joined his private group. This is a 50 years young, retired guy that trades the Daily EURUSD for $2,000 per pip (yesterday he made 265 pips!) on trend lines and Fib support. I made myself not trade but instead just watch how he does it. He is basically a fundamental trader and a EURO bull. It took him until EURUSD took out the monthly support to realise that the bears had taken over and then he switched gears.

The first thing I noticed was that he ONLY trades when the conditions are right (for him). Then he pounces with his 200 lots and usually makes a killing. He also buys at, in his words, "discount prices". For example, when EURUSD was down at 1.25ish the other day, he put in a sell order at 1.275 (at the H4 trendline) and sure enough, it came up to him and he trailed it down to his profit.

Now in his thread were (past tense as they have probably blown their accounts now), young studs who were trying to trade his method on M1 and M5 charts. These guys (and gals) were making several trades every day and losing big time and complaining to Jacko that his method does not work! They completely missed his point of waiting for the market to come to you with the right set up! I could go on with more examples but from looking over Jacko's shoulder, I have learned to sit back and WAIT. The market will always be there and the next big move is always being set up so if you miss it there will be another one to follow.

This has finally taught me PATIENCE.

To those that are in this for a game, the thrill, the action, ego, or whatever - go out and get yourself a PLAYSTATION game. It is cheaper than giving your money to the Pros.

While trading the Daily EURUSD is very profitable, I wanted more frequent profit and knew I had to get involved with shorter time frames so another search and I found the London Open and The School of Pimpology.

As we all know, Dan and Zak's strategy/method is THE best without question. BUT, as good as it is, if you apply it when the market conditions are wrong, it, like anything else, just empties the pip tin. Remember - this is NOT the Holy Grail.

For those still looking for the Holy Grail - just stand in front of a mirror and you will SEE it!

Now, by combining my patience and new found ability to recognise market conditions coupled with the Monkey strategy, I am well on my way to getting some of those thousands back which I threw away in the 90s.

Who is this Stratocaster59 guy I hear you say?

Well, having learned the method, I went on the Live Chat and had a good time but straightaway started making losing trades! Why?

I knew it as soon as I went on there - I was getting caught up with the frenzy of those guys wanting to be in every trade going and ended up making trades I shouldn't have and making trades based on other people's decisions. I could feel myself going backwards fast into that black hole again.

I take my hat off to Anders and Bunnygirl and others who are very successful in that environment, but it does not suit me. I need the quiet and calm to rationalise my thoughts and trades and trade on my beliefs and not those of others.

So another lesson learned for me but this time at no big cost. As you would expect, I am not often in the Live Chat but when I am, I am relaxed and not trading - just the voyeur in me picking Dan's brain!

I also learned that while I was profitable using the M15/M5 combination, I was having a hard time deciding which sqiggly line to ignore and which was going to be a retracement or a rally - way, way too stressful for me. I have now moved over to trading M15 and it is more profitable, more consistent (even with GBPJPY) and definitely less stressful. For a guy that just celebrated his 3rd 20th birthday this June, I can do without that thank you. So now I am trading M15 in addition to the Daily and am looking at changing the Daily for H4 and then having another separate account for the Weekly.

Sorry for the ramblings but I wanted to help and share my learning curve and hope that those who are trading for the thrill or those that are losing will either STEP BACK or buy a PlayStation.

I hope this helps and if it only helps just one person then my ramblings have been worth it.

BE PATIENT AND LET THE MARKET COME TO YOU

Strat

 

Morning all

Well written Strat...I will come back and reply later today.

My AUDCAD trade went straight into court by 130 pips and i wake up this am to be flat. A real shame as that had potential... I would hold off for this at the moment as it bounced off very strong support. I have closed out for -10 in at 50 and out at 60 and will wait...130 pips waisted but hey thats life!!!

OIL has fallen through the roof and is heading to our target of $35.

Wall Street is in all sorts of trouble and is making new lows and as expeced thrashed through the 8000 level.

GOLD mean while is looking vvv strong again and could become its own man very soon and not follow the pack. Buy on any retracements at the mom.

EURUSD is being held up and with EURGBP at a critical level it will be interesting to see if EUR remains bid. I cant see it as i still like EUR down to the 1.1500 level and if not below...

CABLE is the one i still lik elower and tested teh 1.4700 level. It has bounced back 150 pips but i would still prefer to sell into this...

The JPYS as explained on all the currencies are making a push lower and great longer term trades. Perfect breakouts and stay short for now.

Gutted about AUDCAD but thats the market. should have banked small at 130 pips but thats life. I am now flat again and waiting for next big play.

D

 

Thanks Strato

What an excellent post.

I have so much to learn and posts like this give me much to think about. Without guys like you and Dan and Pimp passing on their knowledge us novices wouldn't stand a chance.

I would just like to add that I have learnt much more about trading, about myself and about what I want in life since I haven't been able to trade than when I was.

I will come back to trading full time as soon as I am able and will hopefully be a more patient and wiser person for this enforced break. It's that unavoidable thing called the learning curve - for some of us it's long, for others it's short, but we all have to travel along it and come out the other end.

Thanks again for sharing your experience and happy belated 3rd 20th birthday from June!

RS

 

I've had a bit of a wobble this week. Admittedly it has been difficult trading conditions for all. I've just reviewed my trades and really I should be popping the champagne again this weekend but it'll be the Strongbow instead.

This is the story of my week;

I have cut so many trades early to see them go in my favour.

Then I get annoyed and bang a big risk on an anti-strat play, which inevitable loses.

With confidence gone, I watch a perfect setup develop but I can't pull the trigger (just watched FTSE move 130 pips, what a 5 min chart that is).

I was very disheartened yesterday. I even kicked the coffee table over. But having reviewed my trades the mistakes are obvious. I just need to keep my risk for the good setups. Let the damn thing hit the stop loss occasionally, cause generally they'll run in your favour.

Keep risk for good setups

Bloom

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