The London Open - page 158
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Good morning all
Well GBP has offered very limited support this morning. Infact it looks dead and buried!!
Overall a good morning. We zoned in on CABLE, EURUSD and AUDUSD.
We set a target in CABLE at 1.4705 (50%) and then 1.4660 for closing balance. Some closed before the 1.4660 as the majopr support was in the low 1.4600s and we were cautious thinking a bounce could be on. As you can see it hasnt happened yet... Must be soon!
EURUSD target was set for 1.2975 for only 25 pips and that finally got taken out after an hour or so.
AUDUSD has now just hit WS1 and good to see James and a few others from the room hold that. Well done...
USDJPY is turning into a good trade. Davide and a few others short from above the figure and are now up over 20 pips. Well done Davide for leading the way there.
Lots of pips available and well done to you all--
I am waiting for a pullback and then i will close out of my EURGBP position. I am still short EURUSD from friday and will be watching this closely.
Speak to you all later and good luck in the Pimps session this afternoon.
Dan
Hi
Amanda has just banked part in USDJPY... Well done young lady... Very impresive!
Learning to be more controlled in my teaching now. Entry, stop, target and explanation why seems to be working well. This way we understand the risk and accept it if we get it wrong.
Thanks for the emails today and glad it is coming together for so many of you who have been patient.
Happy Teacher with good results!
D
I am re doing the strategy videos (setup, cci, 123, bungee etc) as we speak...
They will be sent out this afternoon by email.
D
Do you remember that mad rally last week where bonds were gapping up by2-5pts every day? Well today was a reversal of that lovely trend. Withseemingly no significant news out over the weekend the market today wentback into reverse and aside from a few silly rumours about bank stresstesting there was no real obvious trigger. In my view this is exactlywhat we need to see in order to test the validity of the 6 week rally wehave just enjoyed. Price action today was predictably nervous to theextent that bonds that investors couldn't buy enough of last week werethen for sale in good size with clients extremely keen to sell.At this stage I would be very surprised if this rally is over, and atthe moment I would describe this as profit taking after a good run. Ofcourse if I am wrong and this is the start of an early "sell in May andgo away" bear market then the we are not in for a nice Summer astechnically the market is in awful shape as shorts have been closed andgreen shoot lovers are now long. Lets have a reality check here, thestress tests are going to be about as stressful as 2 weeks on aCaribbean beach in the sun. The mumble at the moment is about thesebank stress tests are we really going to get a league table with gradeslike a school report next to each bank? Bottom line these banks areonce again going to basics borrowing cheaply and lending expensively,taking bid/offer etc. This is the good news, the bad news is that theyneed to do this for a longer than just 1 quarter to pay for all thewrite downs and all the toxic waste that is still on their balancesheets. Rome was not built in a day or 1 quarter for that matter andthe green shooters should remember this.
Mr P.....
Good morning
Well the big moves happened yesterday and all GBP buyers disappeared
The markets need retracements back to their respective 4hr 20ma´s. I will need sufficient 123s with support off the 60min 20ma´s for any long plays with stop behind to tempt me in this morning.
CABLE
• DP at 1.4575. No long plays until we break this level. Too oversold for short plays
• Look for 123 on 5min chart after break to buy around the 1.4585 level with stop below the 60min 20ma at 1.4550
EURUSD
• DP at 1.2935 and this has been broken
• Looking for small pullback to the DP around the 40 level with stop below the DP at 1.292
JPY´s
• All 3 are trying to retrace
• Look for small pullbacks to the DP and 60min 20ma´s and use the 15min triggers as entries
Verdict
• Retracements are difficult so reduce risk to 50% as I am not sure how many GBP buyers are out there at present. If we see a double top in CABLE and the DP isn´t broken then expect further falls. 1.4650 will be heavy resistance no
I have tried to be patient today but EURUSD teased me in and cost me 20 pips this morning. Lack of impatience and lesson learnt...Wait for the setups i like and dont feel i have to trade!!!
Watch the silver crosses on these charts now as we could see some 123s come into play over the next 30 to 60 mins...I will make back my 20 plus a lot more very soon.
Cheers
D
Remember CABLE has broken major support..
This is a pullback b4 techincally another fall.
D
Percy panic on the open as the whole world (ok slight exaggeration)wanted to sell the bonds it bought last week for a loss. Bonds off by1-3pts and customers following suit. As bad as liquidity was on theway up, it wasn't much better on the downside. VTB 18s allegedly themost liquid corporate bond off 3 pts trading around 1.5mio total on theway down. Nothing of note to report on the G7 side, gardeners continue to getexcited about so called green shoots and US corporate earnings onbalance continue to come in on the upside vs analysts gloomy estimates.Today was a good test for my stuff and for stocks as to whether this wasjust profit taking or something more sinister. Stocks passed it (sofar) with flying colours, EM corps are in detention but have not beenexpelled just yet. As much as I don't believe the rally or the basisfor it I also don't think this is the beginning of the next pukefestjust yet. Keep on watering those green shoots, you never know they maygrow into small plants or saplings!
Good morning all
Budget release at 12.30pm and we also have MPC Minutes, Claimant Count Change, Average Earnings, Public Sector Net Borrowing at 9.30am this morning.
Something tells me GBP could be quite difficult to trade today so let’s be extra vigilant and only enter when we are happy with the risk. A difficult day yesterday and lesson learnt is to only enter when you are happy with the 60min chart and direction
CABLE
• The 60min chart is key. We have broken major support and the market will be looking for a double top around the 1.4700 for a potential move lower
• It is budget day so every trader around the world will be waiting for the release
• I recommend that we back off this morning unless a peach comes our way and the risk is minimal
EURUSD
• Clear support around the 1.2900 level and we should watch for a break
• The EUR is technically still weak and I am still holding 50% of my position from Friday with a stop above the 4hr 20ma
• The 60min 20MA is flat and direction is lost so lets look for retracement to the 4hr 20ma and then we can look for a play off the that
• I still like it lower but very hard to enter here in an oscillating market
EURGBP
• Clear support at the 0.8800 level and still short with stop above the 0.9000 level
• We need direction in CABLE before we can play this
JPYs
• Support at WS1 in USDJPY at the 97.95 level
• I feel USDJPY has lost a little direction in the last 48 hours so again lets be patient for the USD to show her way
• Technically the JPY is there to strengthen again but the market needs to pullback to the 4hr 20mas before a continuation move
Verdict
• My sensible head is telling me to back off today unless we see a very clear trade
• GBPUSD is the one teasing me. We now have confirmed resistance at 1.4700 so we can use that and have a stop behind. A double top would confirm a change in direction and GBP could fall and test the lows again. Budget however will make the market nervous. Saying that I can´t imagine the budget will be particularly strong
Good morning all
As you all know its budget day and boy do the government need a good one. Will that push GBP higher who knows!!!
Some of us are short...As explained to the group 1.4710 is resistance and double top is written all over it. Therefore its all about where you enter on the short play...Some short at 40, 50, 60 and even 70 depending on their risk profile. I only managed one short play at 63 with aim to sell evey 10 pips with stop at 25. I understand for many that would be too higher risk and thats why some held off for a higher price at say 80 with only a 40 pip risk but as we know those orders didnt get filled. Thats trading and good on you guys for only trading when u r comfortable with the risk.
Pips were made in CABLE, GBPJPY, EURUSD, EURJPY and USDJPY which is gd to see with all trading with the trend.
Clive and a few others (not me) hit GBPJPY instead of CABLE (similar looking chart) and made some great pips shorting from the doubletop at the 4hr 20ma.
Well done team and great trading... I also respect peoples decisions not to trade around the budget.
Figures in 3 mins.
D