Forecast and levels for GBP - page 3

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.05.20 12:47

Weekly Outlook: 2017, May 21 - May 28 (based on the article)

The US dollar was on the back foot, suffering some political issues among other factors. The meeting minutes from the Fed stand out, alongside updates on US and UK GDP but perhaps the biggest event is the testimony of James Comey. Here are the highlights for the upcoming week.


    1. US New Home Sales: Tuesday, 14:00. A level of 611K is on the cards now.
    2. Canadian rate decision: Wednesday, 14:00. 
    3. US Existing Home Sales: Wednesday, 14:00. 
    4. James Comey testifies Wednesday, 13:30 (tentative). The former FBI Director returns to Capitol Hill for the first time after he was fired by President Trump. Comey’s memo included a passage suggesting that Trump tried to intervene in the investigation of Michael Flynn, the disgraced National Security Advisor about the connections between Russia and the Trump campaign. We have witnessed how the scandals have affected the US dollar. If Comey clearly says that Trump tried to obstruct justice, the dollar could fall. If he denies it or plays Trump’s comments down, the dollar could rise.
    5. FOMC Meeting Minutes: Wednesday, 18:00. In the May meeting, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and shrugged off the recent slowdown. Since then, we learned that wages have decelerated to 2.5% y/y and we have also learned about unimpressive retail sales and lower inflation. Since the meeting minutes document can be revised to send signals to markets, we might get a more dovish message than the statement suggested.
    6. UK GDP (second release): Thursday, 8:30. The number will likely be confirmed now.
    7. US jobless claims: Thursday, 12:30.
    8. US GDP (second release): Friday, 12:30. 
    9. US Durable Goods Orders: Friday, 12:30. Core orders, which the Fed eyes, were flat after the revision.

     

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    Press review

    Sergey Golubev, 2017.05.29 06:57

    Weekly GBP/USD Outlook: 2017, May 28 - June 04 (based on the article)

    GBP/USD dropped sharply last week, dropping 230 points. The pair closed at 1.2781, its lowest weekly close in four weeks. This week’s key events are Manufacturing and Construction PMIs. 


    1. BRC Shop Price Index: Tuesday, 23:01.
    2. GfK Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 23:01. The estimate for May stands at -8 points.
    3. Net Lending to Individuals: Wednesday, 8:30. The downward trend is expected to continue, with an estimate of GBP 4.5 billion.
    4. Nationwide HPI: Thursday, 6:00. The markets are expecting better news in May, with an estimate of 0.2%.
    5. Manufacturing PMI: Thursday, 8:30. The forecast for April stands at 56.5 points.
    6. 10-y Bond Auction: Thursday, Tentative. 
    7. Construction PMI: Friday, 8:30. The markets are expecting a slight dip in April, with an estimate of 52.7 points.

     

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    Press review

    Sergey Golubev, 2017.06.01 14:50

    Intra-Day Fundamentals - GBP/USD, Dollar Index and GOLD (XAU/USD): ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

    2017-06-01 13:15 GMT | [USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change]

    if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

    [USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change] = The indicator characterizes the labor market and industrial sector activity to assess the economic development in the country. Employment growth exceeding the predicted value is seen as positive for the US dollar.

    ==========

    From official report:

    • "Private sector employment increased by 253,000 jobs from April to May according to the May ADP National Employment Report® . Broadly distributed to the public each month, free of charge, the ADP National Employment Report is produced by the ADP Research Institute® in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics. The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis."

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    GBP/USD M5: range price movement by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news events


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    Dollar Index M5: range price movement by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news events


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    XAU/USD M5: range price movement by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news events



     

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    Sergey Golubev, 2017.06.05 11:54

    GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: UK Services PMI and range price movement 

    2017-06-05 09:30 GMT | [GBP - Services PMI]

    • past data is 55.8
    • forecast data is 55.1
    • actual data is 53.8 according to the latest press release

    if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

    [GBP - Services PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the services industry. 

    ==========

    From official report:

    • "The headline seasonally adjusted IHS Markit/CIPS Services PMI® Business Activity Index registered 53.8 in May, to remain above the 50.0 no-change value for the tenth consecutive month. However, the index dropped from 55.8 in April and signalled the slowest expansion of service sector output since February. Anecdotal evidence from survey respondents mainly cited weaker new business growth in May. "
    • "Looking ahead, service sector firms are relatively upbeat about their growth prospects, with around 44% expecting a rise in business activity over the year ahead and only 8% anticipating a decline. Business optimism was linked to new product initiatives, hopes of a resilient UK economic backdrop and rising demand from overseas clients."

    ==========

    GBP/USD M5: range price movement by K Services PMI news event



     

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    Sergey Golubev, 2017.06.10 12:14

    UK Vote Raises Political, Brexit Uncertainties; intra-day price bearish breakdown  (based on the article)

    H4 price broke 100 SMA/200 SMA to below to be reversed to the primary bearish market condition. For now, the price is on testing 1.2634 support level to below for the bearish trend to be continuing.


    • "The UK general election result created uncertainty over the policy platform, political cohesion and longevity of the next UK government, Fitch Ratings said Friday."
    • "Elsewhere, Moody's Investors Service also said that the election result heightened uncertainty over Brexit negotiations. The strong electoral gains of the anti-austerity Labour Party mean that fiscal consolidation will have a lower priority and public debt will rise further."

     

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    Sergey Golubev, 2017.06.13 11:56

    GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Consumer Price Index and range price movement 

    2017-06-13 09:30 GMT | [GBP - CPI]

    • past data is 2.7%
    • forecast data is 2.7%
    • actual data is 2.9% according to the latest press release

    if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

    [GBP - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. 

    ==========

    From official report:

    • "The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) 12-month rate was 2.9% in May 2017, up from 2.7% in April."
    • "The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH, not a National Statistic) 12-month inflation rate was 2.7% in May 2017, up from 2.6% in April."

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    GBP/USD M5: range price movement by U.K. Consumer Price Index news event


     

    GBPUSD H4 FIBONACCI


     

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    Sergey Golubev, 2017.06.15 13:29

    GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: MPC Official Bank Rate and range price movement 

    2017-06-15 12:00 GMT | [GBP - 0.25%]

    • past data is 0.25%
    • forecast data is 0.25%
    • actual data is 0.25% according to the latest press release

    if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

    [GBP - 0.25%] = Interest rate at which the BOE lends to financial institutions overnight. 

    ==========

    From official report :

    • "The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sets monetary policy to meet the 2% inflation target, and in a way that helps to sustain growth and employment.  At its meeting ending on 14 June 2017, the MPC voted by a majority of 5-3 to maintain Bank Rate at 0.25%.  The Committee voted unanimously to maintain the stock of sterling non-financial investment-grade corporate bond purchases, financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, at £10 billion.  The Committee also voted unanimously to maintain the stock of UK government bond purchases, financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, at £435 billion."

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    GBP/USD M5: range price movement by Official Bank Rate news event


     

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    Sergey Golubev, 2017.06.26 15:31

    Intra-Day Fundamentals - GBP/USD, USD/CNH and GOLD (XAU/USD): U.S. Durable Goods Orders

    2017-06-26 13:30 GMT | [USD - Durable Goods Orders]

    • past data is -0.8%
    • forecast data is -0.5%
    • actual data is -1.1% according to the latest press release

    if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

    [USD - Durable Goods Orders] = Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods.

    ==========

    From MarketWatch article:

    • "Durable-goods orders slipped 1.1% last month following a similar decline in April, the government reported Monday."
    • "A key measure of business investment known as core capital-goods orders, meanwhile, fell 0.2% to mark the first decline of 2017. Investment had accelerated late last year after a prolonged slump, but the recent upsurge now appears to have tapered off. U.S. futures markets pointed to a higher opening for the Dow Jones Industrial Average."

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    GBP/USD M5: range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events


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    USD/CNH M5: range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events


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    XAU/USD M5: range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events



     

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    Sergey Golubev, 2017.06.28 16:21

    GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: BOE Gov Carney Speaks and range price movement 

    2017-06-28 14:30 GMT | [GBP - BOE Gov Carney Speaks]

    [GBP - BOE Gov Carney Speaks] = Participate in a panel discussion at the European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking, in Portugal. 

    ==========

    From official report :

    • "After an expansion that has relied overly on consumption, the rotation to other components of demand, particularly investment, will be important to sustain momentum. Stronger investment will support productivity growth, stronger wages and higher welfare for all."
    • "It will also give monetary policy more traction. Globally, there are signs that such a rotation may be beginning. Although some UK–specific uncertainties might limit the UK’s participation in that pickup, the Bank of England will make its contribution by pursuing determined policies within well-established frameworks in order to maintain monetary and financial stability.

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    GBP/USD M5: range price movement by BOE Gov Carney Speaks news event


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