Press review - page 528

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Outlook: 2017, June 25 - July 02 (based on the article)

The US dollar enjoyed some strength thanks to the Fed’s hawkish hike, but this did not last too long. What’s next? The Fed can continue influencing currencies thanks to speeches from top Fed officials, including Yellen. In addition, we have many other central bankers speaking and also some GDP figures.

1. US Durable Goods Orders: Monday, 12:30. A rise of 0.4% is on the cards for core orders.
2. Mario Draghi talks: Monday, 17:30 and Tuesday at 8:00. The president of the ECB participates in an event in Sintra, Portugal.
3. Mark Carney talks: Tuesday, 10:00. The Governor of the BOE will present the Financial Stability Report and will speak at a press conference.
4. US CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 14:00. A small drop to 116.1 is on the cards.
5. Patrick Harker talks Tuesday, 15:15. The President of the Philadelphia Fed will speak in London. In his previous public appearance, Harker surprised by expressing some worries about inflation.
6. Janet Yellen talks: Tuesday, 17:00. The Chair of the Federal Reserve expressed lots of optimism about growth and employment while dismissing inflation on one-off events.
7. Central bankers panel: Wednesday, 13:30. Four governors will participate in a panel at Sintra: the ECB’s Mario Draghi, the BOE’s Mark Carney, the BOJ’s Haruhiko Kuroda and the BOC’s Stephen Poloz all talk at one event.
8. US Pending Home Sales: Wednesday, 14:00. A rise of 0.6% is on the cards.
9. Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 14:30.
10. US GDP (final): Thursday, 12:30. A confirmation of the 1.2% growth rate is expected.
11. UK GDP (final): Friday, 8:30. We now get the final read which is projected to confirm the 0.2% read.
12. Euro-zone inflation: Friday, 9:00. THeadline inflation carries expectations for a slide to 1.3% while core inflation is forecast to advance to 1%.
13. US Core PCE Price Index: Friday, 12:30. Month over month, a rise of 0.1% is predicted.
14. Canadian GDP: Friday, 12:30. 

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2017, June 25 - July 02 (based on the article)

EUR/USD was under pressure as the dollar enjoyed some gains. Has the pair turned down? The last week of June features an important German survey and key inflation data.

1. German Ifo Business Climate: Monday, 8:00. 
2. French CPI: Tuesday, 6:45. 
3. French Consumer Spending: Wednesday, 6:45. 
4. Monetary data: Wednesday, 8:00. 
5. Italian CPI: Wednesday, 9:00. 
6. German GfK Consumer Climate: Thursday, 6:00. 
7. Spanish CPI: Thursday, 7:00. 
8. German CPI: Thursday: German states release the data throughout the morning, and the all-German number is at 12:00. 
9. German Unemployment Change: Friday, 7:55. Germany enjoys a growing economy and falling unemployment. The number of the unemployed fell by 9K in April. The data for May is expected to show a similar drop.
10. CPI: Friday, 9:00. Headline inflation stood at 1.4%.

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly USD/JPY Outlook: 2017, June 25 - July 02 (based on the article)

Dollar/yen dipped had a strong start to the week but petered out later on. The pair has been sliding as enthusiasm from the Fed’s hawkishness was replaced by skepticism. 

• The upcoming week begins with a strong start from durable goods orders, continues with the CB consumer confidence and culminates with the final read of US GDP. It is also important to watch out for the Core PCE Price Index, the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation.
• In general, $/yen hardly moves on Japanese events. Japan’s trade surplus came out slightly lower than expected.
• The upcoming week features Japanese inflation figures on Thursday at 23:50. Watch out for the more up-to-date Tokyo CPI. The unemployment rate in Japan dropped to a low of 2.8%.

[Sergey Golubev]

Facebook To Buy For Second-Half 2017 (based on the article)

Weekly share price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart. The price is on ranging within 144.44 support level for the secondary correction to be started and 155.58 resistance level for the primary bullish trend to be resumed.

• "We all used to have a good friend named productivity before the ubiquitous social media juggernaut came along. Now we pass the time liking puppy videos and wishing long lost friends happy birthday with no shortage of gifs or stickers to say it with."
• "Facebook makes for a great investment given its huge top-line growth and +30% free cash flow margins, says Barry Randall, chief investment officer of Crabtree Asset Management in St. Paul, Minn."
• "Growth potential abounds because Facebook has yet to fully monetize its other social networks: Instagram, WhatsApp and Messenger."

[Sergey Golubev]

The Bitcoin Bubble (based on the article)

The price on M30 chart is located near and above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart near the border betweem the primary bearish and the primary bullish: descending triangle pattern was formed by the price with 2,697 support level to be crossed to below for the bearish reversal to be started. Besides, the 3-Drives bearish pattern is forming for the price to be reversed to the primary bearish market condition in intra-day basis for example.

• "Term for what is often known as an “asset bubble”, “price bubble”, or “investment bubble” is “speculative bubble”, because invariably, the peaks of these bubbles are caused by very intense speculative activity. A speculative bubble occurs when an asset is far, far above anything close to what its real (it might be better to say “sustainable”) value might be. A better way of describing it might be to note that because all speculative bubbles burst, a bubble can be defined as an asset rising exponentially to extremely inflated prices and then crashing down and settling at a level which is far less than its original price (typically a fall of 75% or more). A speculative bubble is characterized by both the rise and fall, particularly the fall, taking place over brief time periods."
• "It seems logical to assume that provided Bitcoin survives in its present uncontrolled and fixed state, it will inevitably appreciate against all fiat currencies, with the only discounting arising from the question of whether it will become fully accepted as a convenient, usable legal tender. A factor within this is whether other crypto-currencies could eventually usurp Bitcoin’s leading role: it is worth noting that the capitalization of other crypto-currencies has begun to exceed Bitcoin’s capitalization. If you believe that Bitcoin will maintain its dominance over other individual crypto-currencies and eventually become widely accepted, then there is every reason to believe that a Bitcoin is worth at least $1,600 right now. If this is true, then Bitcoin might be overbought and due a substantial correction, but it could not be said to be in a bubble comparable to Tulip Mania or the first British joint stock companies of the 17th century. This case also supports Bitcoin as an attractive medium to long-term investment."
• "If you are trading Bitcoin with a short-term time horizon, keep position sizing very small, as volatility is dramatically high. The 30-day ATR (Average True Range) has more than tripled over the past 6 weeks. Although the chart still looks quite bullish technically, we might already see the beginning of a major first lower high just above $2,600. It can also be expected that there will be support at $2,000 and within the area just below that price. A major correction should be expected, as in a huge appreciation of any asset when people who know nothing about it are starting to buy it. Long-term investors would probably do well to wait a while before buying at least part of their intended position, ideally to a level below $2,000 or, even better, $1,600."

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD - ranging near intra-day bullish reversal; 0.7582 is the key (based on the article)

H4 intra-day price is on ranging near and below Senkou Span line on the border between the primary bearish and the ranging bullish area of the chart. If the price breaks ascending triangle pattern to above together with 0.7582 resistance level so the bullish reversal will be started, otherwise - bearish ranging for the waiting for direction of the strong trend.

"For those intraday traders, we can pinpoint the pattern a little further. A shorter term key level to watch for is the June 13 low of .7524. Holding above this low keeps new highs towards .7640 vulnerable. A break below this level puts bulls on ice while support may form above .7329."

[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-Day Fundamentals - GBP/USD, USD/CNH and GOLD (XAU/USD): U.S. Durable Goods Orders

2017-06-26 13:30 GMT | [USD - Durable Goods Orders]

• past data is -0.8%
• forecast data is -0.5%
• actual data is -1.1% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Durable Goods Orders] = Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods.

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From MarketWatch article:

• "Durable-goods orders slipped 1.1% last month following a similar decline in April, the government reported Monday."
• "A key measure of business investment known as core capital-goods orders, meanwhile, fell 0.2% to mark the first decline of 2017. Investment had accelerated late last year after a prolonged slump, but the recent upsurge now appears to have tapered off. U.S. futures markets pointed to a higher opening for the Dow Jones Industrial Average."

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GBP/USD M5: range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events

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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events

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XAU/USD M5: range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events

[Sergey Golubev]

GOLD (XAU/USD) - intraday bearish to be resumed; daily bearish reversal; 1,240/1,236 are the keys (based on the article)

• Intra-day price on H4 chart is on testing 1,240 to below for the bearish trend to be resumed with 1,236 nearest target to re-enter.
• Daily price is reversing to the primary bearish market condition by 1,240 support level to be testing to below with 1,236 target to be re-enter for the primary bearish trend to be continuing.
• Weekly price is located near and above Ichimoku cloud on the border between the primary bullish and the ranging bearish condition.
• Monthly price is already in bearish condition for the ranging within narrow s/r levels waiting for direction of the strong trend to be started.

• "The week has started on a fleet foot for Gold prices, as the yellow metal has run down to set a new monthly low before the U.S. opens for business. The driver of the move appears to be a German IFO survey that printed at its strongest reading in 47 years, and this is the highest level that we’ve seen the indicator print since the reunification of Germany. With sentiment surveys, we’ll often see a type of leading relationship; so this IFO survey is highlighting that we may see a stronger pattern of growth in the months-ahead as Germany goes into an election cycle beginning in August."
• "We’ve seen an outsized move to open the week, we can associate the predominant trend as being bearish. But – given the four hours of price action that we’ve seen where buyers have pushed prices back above prior support at $1,240, and traders would probably want to wait for a better with nearby resistance rather than chasing the move. On the 30-minute chart below, we’re looking at four potential areas to watch for ‘lower-high’ resistance in trading the move-lower."

[Sergey Golubev]

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Overseas Merchandise Trade and range price movement 

2017-06-26 23:45 GMT | [USD - Trade Balance]

• past data is 536M
• forecast data is 420M
• actual data is 103M according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[USD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month. 

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From official report :

• "The monthly trade balance was a surplus of $103 million (2.1 percent of exports)."
• "The annual trade deficit widened to $3.8 billion, from $3.6 billion in April 2017."

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NZD/USD M5: range price movement by NZ Overseas Merchandise Trade news event

[Sergey Golubev]

Nikkei 225 - daily bullish ranging; 20,315 is the key (based on the article)

Daily price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart. The price is on ranging within 19,155 bearish reversal support level and 20,315 bullish continuation resistance level. Tenkan-sen line of Ichimoku indicator is still above Kijun-sen line which is indicating the bullish trend to be continuing in the near future.

• "The Nikkei 225 looks quite comfortable around the big, 20,000 level. But how much higher does it want to go? Well, assuming that you’re a Nikkei bull, we’ll start with the good news. The index is still clearly within the uptrend channel which has marked its long and quite impressive rise from the lows of mid-May. That gain has taken the Tokyo equity benchmark to two-year highs and seen it top that psychologically important 20,000 mark which it remains above."
• "Indeed, the more recent bumpy, sideways slog across the channel’s lower reaches makes it more likely that the index has in fact been consolidating for the past month or so. For sure it has done so in a higher range than that which came before, but it remains to be seen whether that consolidation marks a top or a base for a push yet higher."