Forecast and levels for GBP - page 8

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.10.27 15:52

Intra-Day Fundamentals - GBP/USD, USD/CNH and Brent Crude Oil: U.S. Gross Domestic Product

2017-10-27 13:30 GMT | [USD - GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - GDP] = Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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From official report :

  • "Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.0 percent in the third quarter of 2017 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent."
  • "The Bureau emphasized that the third-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see “Source Data for the Advance Estimate” on page 2). The "second" estimate for the third quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on November 29, 2017."

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GBP/USD M1: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events


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USD/CNH M1: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events


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Brent Crude Oil M1: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events


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The charts were made on MT5 with MA Channel Stochastic system uploaded on this post, and using standard indicators from Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.10.28 11:24

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GBP/USD (based on the article)


GBP/USD - "The Bank of England will almost certainly double the benchmark UK Bank Rate to 0.5% on “Super Thursday”, increasing it for the first time in more than a decade. However, with the markets pricing in a probability of around 88% of a hike, there is a risk that the British Pound will fall back on the news, just as the Euro fell after the European Central Bank announced the predicted tightening of Euro-Zone monetary policy in the past week."

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Chart was made on MT4 using iFibonacci indicator and MaksiGen_Range_Move indicator from CodeBase (free to download).


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.11.01 13:54

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: UK Manufacturing PMI and range price movement 

2017-11-01 09:30 GMT | [GBP - Manufacturing PMI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Manufacturing PMI] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. 

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From official report :

  • "The UK manufacturing sector started the final quarter of the year on a solid footing. Production and new order volumes continued to rise at robust rates, as companies benefited from strong domestic market conditions and rising inflows of new export business. Price pressures remained elevated, however, with rates of inflation in input costs and output charges both accelerating and staying well above historical series averages."
  • "The seasonally adjusted IHS Markit/CIPS Purchasing Managers’ Index® (PMI® ) registered 56.3 in October, up from 56.0 in September (revised from the original reading of 55.9). The headline PMI has now signalled expansion for 15 consecutive months. Responses from the latest survey were collected between 12-26 October."

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GBP/USD M1: range price movement by UK Manufacturing PMI news event 


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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.11.02 13:42

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Bank of England (BoE) Interest Rate Decision, BoE Inflation Report and range price movement 

2017-11-02 12:30 GMT | [GBP - Official Bank Rate]

  • past data is 0.25%
  • forecast data is 0.50%
  • actual data is 0.50% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Official Bank Rate] = Interest rate at which the BoE lends to financial institutions overnight. 

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From official report :

  • "The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sets monetary policy to meet the 2% inflation target, and in a way that helps to sustain growth and employment.  At its meeting ending on 1 November 2017, the MPC voted by a majority of 7-2 to increase Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 0.5%.  The Committee voted unanimously to maintain the stock of sterling non-financial investment-grade corporate bond purchases, financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, at £10 billion.  The Committee also voted unanimously to maintain the stock of UK government bond purchases, financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, at £435 billion."

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GBP/USD M30: range price movement by BoE Official Bank Rate news event 


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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

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Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.11.05 08:42

Weekly GBP/USD Outlook: 2017, November 05 - November 12 (based on the article)

GBP/USD had a mixed week amid big events. The upcoming week may be calmer but still, consists of important events. The trade balance and industrial output stand out. Here are the key events.


  1. BRC Retail Sales Monitor:  Tuesday, 00:01. 
  2. Halifax HPI: Tuesday, 8:30. The RBS has reported three consecutive months of rises in house prices, with a surprisingly robust rise of 0.8% in September. A more modest advance is likely this time: +0.2%.
  3. RICS House Price Balance: Thursday, 00:01. A drop to 4% is on the cards.
  4. NIESR GDP Estimate: Thursday, 13:00. We now receive the growth rate for August to October.
  5. Manufacturing Production: Friday, 9:30. A small increase of 0.3% is predicted.
  6. Goods Trade Balance: Friday, 9:30. A narrower deficit of 12.9 billion is on the cards.
  7. Construction Output: Friday, 9:30. A slide of 0.6% is forecast.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.11.10 10:27

GBP/USD - daily bearish ranging near Senkou Span reversal level (based on the article)

The price on the daily chart is on ranging below Ichimoku cloud: price is within the following support/resistance levels:

  • 1.3027 support level located in the beginning of the bearish trend to be resumed, and
  • 1.3213 resistance level located near Senkou Span line on the border of the primary bullish reversal to be started.

By the way, 1.3027 is the weekly support level, and if the price breaks this level to below on close weekly bar so the long-term bearish reversal will be started with the secondary ranging way.


  • "GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 58.6% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.42 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since Nov 01 when GBPUSD traded near 1.30522; price has moved 0.7% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 4.5% lower than yesterday and 21.2% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.5% lower than yesterday and 1.9% higher from last week. "
  • "We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to fall. Positioning is more net-long than yesterday but less net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed GBPUSD trading bias."

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The chart was made on D1 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.11.11 08:47

Weekly GBP/USD Outlook: 2017, November 12 - November 19 (based on the article)

GBP/USD was looking for a new direction after that dovish hike from the BoE and as Brexit talks are trying to get out of the ditch. The upcoming week features three top-tier publications: inflation, jobs, and retail sales. 


  1. Inflation report: Tuesday, 9:30. The weakness of the British pound following the EU Referendum last year is the main contributor to higher prices.
  2. Jobs report: Wednesday, 9:30. Weak wages will probably take center-stage once again.
  3. CB Leading Index: Wednesday, 14:30. A drop of 0.1% was reported in August. We will now receive the data for September.
  4. Retail sales: Thursday, 9:30. After three upbeat months, the volume of sales slipped by 0.8% in September, causing a slide in the pound. Are consumers becoming more sensitive to higher prices? The updated data for October also feeds into Q4 GDP.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.11.13 12:49

GBP/USD - bullish ranging within narrow levels for direction (based on the article)

Daily price is above 200 SMA to be on ranging near and below 55 SMA: the price is within 1.3039/1.3229 s/r levels for the bullish trend to be resumed or for the correction to the bearish reversal to be started.


  • "Since bottoming on October 6, GBP/USD has gone into a range with a small handful of powerful days, but nothing which led to follow-through. During this period one-week and one-month implied volatility declined to 6.32% and 6.72%, respectively. Since last week it has been on the rise, with current levels of 8.75% (1-wk) and 7.99% (1-mo). Not only have expectations for price movement in cable risen strongly in recent sessions, it also tops the board of major USD-pairs."
  • "The projected one-week one-standard deviation range is 12916-13232. Let’s take a look at how these levels align with the current technical landscape. First off, the range is running on borrowed time, which means a break is likely coming soon. With cable not finding much lift around a pair of trend-lines (March-current, lower parallel – April-current) and the October low it is becoming increasingly likely the break will come to the downside. Should we see a sell-off commence it would also be in-line with the trend off the 9/20 spike-day high which came at a confluence of the gap following ‘Brexit’ and a trend-line running down from July 2014 over the ‘Brexit’ day high."
  • "The projected one-week low is 12916, which isn’t far from the 200-day MA currently at 12872. But the next level of price support doesn’t arrive until under 12800. With that in mind, a breakdown may lead to price expansion and even higher levels of implied volatility. On the top-side, coupling trend direction prior to the multi-week range with overhead levels and the trend-line off the September high, it looks less likely we will see a strong move higher in cable."

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The chart was made on MT5 with MA Channel Stochastic system uploaded on this post, and using standard indicators from Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:


 
 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.11.14 12:16

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Consumer Price Index and range price movement 

2017-11-14 09:30 GMT | [GBP - CPI]

  • past data is 3.0%
  • forecast data is 3.1%
  • actual data is 3.0% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. 

==========

From official report :

  • "The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) 12-month rate was 3.0% in October 2017, unchanged from September 2017."
  • "The inflation rate for food and non-alcoholic beverages continued to increase to 4.1%, the highest since September 2013."

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GBP/USD M5: range price movement by U.K. Consumer Price Index news event 


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The chart was made on MT5 with MACD Scalping system uploaded on this post and this post, and using standard indicators from Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:


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