Forecast and levels for NZD - page 9

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.11.15 16:31

Intra-Day Fundamentals - AUD/USD, NZD/USD and Dow Jones Index: United States Advance Retail Sales

2018-11-15 13:30 GMT | [USD - Retail Sales]

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

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From morningstar article :

  • "Retail sales in the US increased by more than anticipated in the month of October, the Commerce Department revealed in a report released on Thursday. The Commerce Department said retail sales advanced by 0.8% in October following a revised 0.1% dip in September."
  • "The bigger than expected increase in retail sales was partly due to a spike in sales by motor vehicle and parts dealers, which surged up by 1.1% in October after dipping by 0.1% in September."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by United States Advance Retail Sales news events

AUD/USD M5: range price movement by United States Advance Retail Sales news eventsAUD/USD M5: range price movement by United States Advance Retail Sales news eventsAUD/USD M5: range price movement by United States Advance Retail Sales news eventsAUD/USD M5: range price movement by United States Advance Retail Sales news eventsAUD/USD M5: range price movement by United States Advance Retail Sales news eventsAUD/USD M5: range price movement by United States Advance Retail Sales news eventsAUD/USD M5: range price movement by United States Advance Retail Sales news events

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NZD/USD M5: range price movement by United States Advance Retail Sales news events

NZD/USD M5: range price movement by United States Advance Retail Sales news events

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Dow Jones Index H4: range price movement by United States Advance Retail Sales news events

Dow Jones Index H4: range price movement by United States Advance Retail Sales news events

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

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The NZD/USD visits its 55 week EMA

fxstrategist007, 2018.11.17 05:22

Moving averages can act as good resistance or support levels, especially on the higher time frames, like the weekly chart. The NZD/USD found a resistance around the 200 day EMA at eh 0.6774 level, but on the second visit, it breaks above that level to reach the 55 week EMA around the 0.6868 level. At the 55 week EMA, the pair may find some resistance, but if it continues rallying, its next resistance could be the 200 week EMA around the 0.7113 level. On the hand, if the prices bounces to the downside, the 200 day EMA could act as support, but if the pair breaks below the 200 day EMA, its next support could be the 55 day EMA around the 0.6644 level, followed by the 0.6500 zone.


 
NZD/CHF is climbing up relentlessly from 0.63ish and providing excellent carry - buying every red 4H candle. Hoping to get to 0.71 at least before the next interest rate hike in the early 2019 :) 
 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.11.27 06:59

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: New Zealand Overseas Merchandise Trade and range price movement  

2018-11-26 21:45 GMT | [NZD - Trade Balance]

  • past data is -1596M
  • forecast data is -850M
  • actual data is -1295M according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month.

==========

From official report :

  • "Goods exports rose $303 million (6.6 percent) to $4.9 billion."
  • "Goods imports rose $758 million (14 percent) to $6.2 billion. This is the highest imports value ever."
  • "The monthly trade balance was a deficit of $1.3 billion (27 percent of exports)."

==========

NZD/USD: range price movement by New Zealand Trade Balance news event 

============

Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.12.07 15:01

Intra-Day Fundamentals - USD/JPY, NZD/USD and USD/CNH: Non-Farm Payrolls

2018-12-07 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

  • past data is 237K
  • forecast data is 198K
  • actual data is 155K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

==========

From official report :

  • "Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 155,000 in November, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in manufacturing, and in transportation and warehousing."

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USD/JPY M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events

USD/JPY M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events

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NZD/USD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events

NZD/USD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events

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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events

USD/CNH M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5


 

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Fundamental Analysis of NZD/USD for December

Chathusanka Yamasinghe, 2018.12.16 13:02

NZD/USD is currently quite impulsive with the bearish pressure, breaking below the 0.6850 area. Amid the recent economic reports and fundamental events, USD has managed to gain momentum over NZD, and this gain is expected to continue further.

New Zealand has been trying to improve its current banking system. RBNZ being stubborn about the interest rate and monetary policy decisions is assumed as the leading factor for sudden weakness of NZD. Recently, New Zealand FPI report has been published unchanged at -0.6% and today, Business NZ Manufacturing Index report has been released with a decrease to 53.5 from the previous figure of 53.7. The worse economic result caused NZD to lose grounds, pushing it much lower.

On the other hand, USD has been recently struggling to gain momentum over NZD amid the economic results and indecision of Federal Funds Rate Hike which confused the market sentiment for the upcoming momentum of the currency in the market. The risk of the US recession in the next two years has risen to 40% against the background of the sudden change in the interest rate hike decision for 2019. Recently, US Import Prices report has been published with a decrease to -1.6% from the previous value of 0.5% which was expected to be at -1.0%. Besides, Unemployment Claims has been released with a positive result with a decrease to 206k from the previous figure of 233k which was expected to be at 226k. Today, US Core Retail Sales is expected to decline to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.7%; and Retail Sales Index is expected to be down to 0.1% from the previous value of 0.8%. Moreover, Industrial Production is expected to increase to 0.3% from the previous value of 0.1%; and Business Inventories is also estimated to grow to 0.6% from the previous value of 0.3%.

Under the current scenario, USD is expected to sustain the bearish momentum in the pair while NZD is losing grounds due to worse economic results. Nevertheless, there is a chance that NZD will gain back momentum next week, since ANZ Business Confidence report is going to be published with a positive result in the market.

Now let us look from a technical perspective. After the previous formation of Bearish Divergence, the price is currently residing below the area of 0.6850 with a strong bearish pressure which is expected to close with a daily candle below the area as well. The price has recently pierced below the dynamic level of 20 EMA which indicates further bearish pressure in the coming days. As the price remains below the area of 0.6850 with a daily close, it is expected to push towards the 0.6700 area from where certain bullish pressure is expected in the future.

SUPPORT: 0.6500, 0.6700

RESISTANCE: 0.6850, 0.6950, 0.70

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.12.19 08:31

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: New Zealand Overseas Current Account and range price movement 

2018-12-18 21:45 GMT | [NZD - Current Account]

  • past data is -1.63B
  • forecast data is -5.94B
  • actual data is -6.15B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Current Account] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods, services, income flows, and unilateral transfers during the previous quarter.

==========

From official report :

  • "New Zealand’s seasonally adjusted current account deficit narrowed to $2.6 billion, $102 million smaller than the June 2018 quarter deficit ($2.7 billion)."
  • "The annual current account deficit widened to $10.5 billion for the year ended September 2018 (3.6 percent of GDP) from the $7.4 billion deficit for the September 2017 year (2.7 percent of GDP)."

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NZD/USD M1: range price movement by New Zealand Overseas Current Account news event 

NZD/USD M1: range price movement by New Zealand Overseas Current Account news event

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.12.20 07:26

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: New Zealand Gross Domestic Product and range price movement 

2018-12-19 21:45 GMT | [NZD - GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

==========

From official report :

  • "Economic activity, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP), was up 0.3 percent in the September 2018 quarter. Growth eased after a 1.0 percent increase in the June 2018 quarter.."
  • "GDP grew 3.0 percent over the year ended September 2018."
  • "Primary industries had the largest growth this quarter, up 2.2 percent. Growth in the service industries eased to 0.5 percent, following broad-based 1.0 percent growth in the June 2018 quarter. Goods-producing industries dropped 1.0 percent."

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NZD/USD: range price movement by New Zealand Gross Domestic Product news event 

NZD/USD: range price movement by New Zealand Gross Domestic Product news event

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After 


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.01.06 04:31

NZD/USD - bearish ranging (based on the article)

NZD/USD daily chart by Metatrader 5

  • "NZDUSD has consistently traded lower in recent weeks and now trades below resistance from the trendline originating on December 4th. The head and shoulders pattern sent the pair lower and after a strong Friday performance, the Kiwi looks poised to test the trendline next week. A failed test would serve as strong confirmation for a sustained move lower and continuation of the recent trend."
  • "Another price point to watch in the week ahead includes 0.6700, a round number that has provided moderate support and resistance in the past six months. Coupled with nearby resistance from the December 4th trendline, a break below 0.6700 could serve to drive the pair lower in earnest."

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.01.29 14:13

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: New Zealand Overseas Merchandise Trade and range price movement  

2019-01-28 21:45 GMT | [NZD - Trade Balance]

  • past data is -955M
  • forecast data is 225M
  • actual data is 264M according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month.

==========

From official report :

  • "Goods exports fell $27 million (0.5 percent) to $5.5 billion, the second-highest value for monthly total exports. The previous high was in December 2017."
  • "Goods imports rose $323 million (6.6 percent) to $5.2 billion."
  • "The monthly trade balance was a surplus of $264 million (4.8 percent of exports)."

==========

NZD/USD: range price movement by New Zealand Trade Balance news event 

NZD/USD: range price movement by New Zealand Trade Balance news event

============

Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


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