Press review - page 627

[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-Day Fundamentals - GBP/USD and AUD/USD: United States Manufacturing ISM Report On Business

2018-12-03 15:00 GMT | [USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI]

• past data is 57.7
• forecast data is 57.5
• actual data is 59.3 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

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From official report :

• "Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in November, and the overall economy grew for the 115th consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®."
• "The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “The November PMI® registered 59.3 percent, an increase of 1.6 percentage points from the October reading of 57.7 percent. The New Orders Index registered 62.1 percent, an increase of 4.7 percentage points from the October reading of 57.4 percent. The Production Index registered 60.6 percent, a 0.7 percentage-point increase compared to the October reading of 59.9 percent. The Employment Index registered 58.4 percent, an increase of 1.6 percentage points from the October reading of 56.8 percent. The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 62.5 percent, a 1.3-percentage point decrease from the October reading of 63.8 percent. The Inventories Index registered 52.9 percent, an increase of 2.2 percentage points from the October reading of 50.7 percent. The Prices Index registered 60.7 percent, a 10.9-percentage point decrease from the October reading of 71.6 percent, indicating higher raw materials prices for the 33rd consecutive month."

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GBP/USD M1: range price movement by ISM Manufacturing PMI news events

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by ISM Manufacturing PMI news events

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBA Cash Rate, Rate Statement and range price movement 

2018-12-04 03:30 GMT | [AUD - Cash Rate]

• past data is 1.50%
• forecast data is 1.50%
• actual data is 1.50% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Cash Rate] = Interest rate charged on overnight loans between financial intermediaries.

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From official report :

• "At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50 per cent."
• "The Australian economy is performing well. The central scenario is for GDP growth to average around 3½ per cent over this year and next, before slowing in 2020 due to slower growth in exports of resources. Business conditions are positive and non-mining business investment is expected to increase. Higher levels of public infrastructure investment are also supporting the economy, as is growth in resource exports. One continuing source of uncertainty is the outlook for household consumption. Growth in household income remains low, debt levels are high and some asset prices have declined. The drought has led to difficult conditions in parts of the farm sector."

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AUD/USD M1: range price movement by RBA Cash Rate news event  

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• BrainTrend2Sig indicator from Codebase (free to download)
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5

All about BrainTrading system for MT5: 

• BrainTrending indicators to download with template. 
• Rules to trade manually 
• How to install

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Gross Domestic Product and range price movement 

2018-12-05 00:30 GMT | [AUD - GDP]

• past data is 0.9%
• forecast data is 0.6%
• actual data is 0.3% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

==========

From official report :

• "The Australian economy grew by 0.3% in seasonally adjusted chain volume terms in the September quarter."
• "Compensation of employees increased by 1.0%."

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AUD/USD M15: range price movement by Australia Gross Domestic Product news event 

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Quick ZigZag plus DiNapoli - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• GMMA - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Vortex - indicator for MetaTrader 5

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After

• The main AscTrend thread is this one.
• Asctrend indicator in depth 
• ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included)
• Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Bank of Canada Interest Rate, BoC Rate Statement and range price movement 

2018-12-05 15:00 GMT | [CAD - Overnight Rate]

• past data is 1.75%
• forecast data is 1.75%
• actual data is 1.75% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - Overnight Rate] = Interest rate at which major financial institutions borrow and lend overnight funds between themselves.

==========

From official report :

• "The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 1 ¾ per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 2 per cent and the deposit rate is 1 ½ per cent."
• "Oil prices have fallen sharply since the October Monetary Policy Report (MPR), reflecting a combination of geopolitical developments, uncertainty about global growth prospects, and expansion of U.S. shale oil production. Benchmarks for western Canadian oil – both heavy and, more recently, light – have been pulled down even further by transportation constraints and a buildup of inventories. In light of these developments and associated cutbacks in production, activity in Canada’s energy sector will likely be materially weaker than expected."

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USD/CAD M5: range price movement by BoC Overnight Rate news event  

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• BrainTrend2Sig indicator from Codebase (free to download)
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5

All about BrainTrading system for MT5: 

• BrainTrending indicators to download with template. 
• Rules to trade manually 
• How to install

[Sergey Golubev]

Crypto News - Bitcoin Falls Below $3,300 (based on the article)

• "Bitcoin prices suffered further bloodshed Thursday night, falling below $3,300 and hitting a fresh, 2o18 low. The digital currency declined to as little as $3,293.31, according to CoinDesk bitcoin price data."
• "At this point, the cryptocurrency was down roughly 11% in the last 24 hours and approximately 83% from its all-time high of nearly $20,000, additional CoinDesk figures reveal."

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-Day Fundamentals - USD/JPY, NZD/USD and USD/CNH: Non-Farm Payrolls

2018-12-07 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

• past data is 237K
• forecast data is 198K
• actual data is 155K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

==========

From official report :

• "Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 155,000 in November, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in manufacturing, and in transportation and warehousing."

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USD/JPY M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events

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NZD/USD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events

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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events

==========

The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

GBP/USD - Ranging Bearish; 1.2506 is the key (based on the article)

• "GBP/USD has put in a bearish move to start the week, pulling up shy of the 1.2500 psychological level as the pair tumbled down to fresh 18-month lows. At the source of the selling was another negative headline around Brexit as Theresa May called off this week’s Parliamentary vote. This adds an element of chaos to an already uncertain situation, and the net response from traders was a 200+ pip sell-off as additional uncertainty was incorporated into GBP prices."
• "With the Brexit backdrop as opaque as it’s been since the referendum, it’s become increasingly difficult to muster a bullish prognostication for the British Pound. But – with all currently known facts GBP bears have been yet unable to break through the 1.2500 level, and this is something that should be taken into consideration by those investigating short-side strategies. Risk management can be difficult given the pair’s proximity to recent resistance. I look at an area for potential resistance to go along with the potential for short-side breakout strategies on breaks-through the 1.2500 psychological level."

============

The chart was made on weekly timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Price prediction by Nearest Neighbor found by a weighted correlation coefficient - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: intra-day bearish ranging near bullish reversal; daily bearish ranging for direction

2018-12-12 15:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

• past data is -7.3M
• forecast data is -3.0M
• actual data is -1.2M according to the latest press release

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

==========

"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 1.2 million barrels from the previous week."

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Crude Oil M5: bearish ranging near bullish reversal. The price broke Ichimoku cloud to below for 60.42 support level to be tested for the bearish trend to be continuing,

If the price breaks 61.05 resistance level to above on M5 close bar so the bullish reversal will be started.
If the price breaks 60.42 support level to below on M5 close bar so the bearish trend will be continuing
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.

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Crude Oil Daily: bearish ranging for direction. Daily price is on ranging far below Ichimoku cloud in the bearish area of the chart: the price is on bearish ranging within 57.47 support level for the bearish trend to be continuing and 63.66 resistance level for the secondary rally to be started.

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Chart #1.
The chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• BrainTrend2Sig indicator from Codebase (free to download)
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:

• BrainTrending indicators to download with template.
• Rules to trade manually
• How to install 

Chart #2.
The chart was made on D1 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicator from CodeBase:

• Price prediction by Nearest Neighbor found by a weighted correlation coefficient - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index and AUD/USD: U.S. Retail Sales

2018-12-14 13:30 GMT | [USD - Retail Sales]

• past data is 1.1%
• forecast data is 0.1%
• actual data is 0.2% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

==========

From official report :

• "Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November2018, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $513.5 billion, an increase of 0.2 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and 4.2 percent (±0.5 percent) above November 2017. Total sales for the September 2018 through November 2018 period were up 4.3 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The September 2018 to October 2018 percent change was revised from up 0.8 percent(±0.5 percent) to up 1.1 percent (±0.2 percent)."
• "Retail trade sales were up 0.3 percent (±0.5 percent) from October 2018, and 4.0 percent(±0.5 percent) above last year. Nonstore Retailers were up10.8 percent (±1.4 percent) from November 2017, while Gasoline Stations were up 8.2 percent (±1.6 percent) from last year."

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Dollar Index M1: range price movement by U.S. Advance Retail Sales news events

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AUD/USD M1: range price movement by U.S. Advance Retail Sales news events

=========

The chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

Kathy Lien - 4 main reasons why the dollar keeps getting stronger (based on the article)

1. Good Data
2. Rising Interest Rates
3. Equity Market Pressure
4. Trade Policy

Three out of four of these factors will still draw investors into the greenback.

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The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.