Forecast and levels for AUD - page 20

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Sergey Golubev, 2019.10.03 08:21

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Trade Balance and range price movement 

2019-10-03 01:30 GMT | [AUD - Trade Balance]

  • past data is 7.25B
  • forecast data is 6.00B
  • actual data is 5.93B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reported month.

==========

From official report :

  • "In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $6,925m in August 2019, an increase of $73m on the surplus in July 2019."
  • "In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $5,926m in August 2019, a decrease of $1,327m on the surplus in July 2019."

==========

AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia Trade Balance news event 

AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia Trade Balance news event

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5: 


 

Identified Trend Channels

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2019.10.17 13:50

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Employment Change and range price movement 

2019-10-17 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Employment Change]

  • past data is 37.9K
  • forecast data is 15.3K
  • actual data is 14.7K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month.

==========

From official report :

  • "Employment increased by 14,700 to 12,944,000 people. Full-time employment increased by 26,200 to 8,847,200 people and part-time employment decreased by 11,400 to 4,096,900 people. Unemployment rate decreased by 0.1 pts to 5.2%."

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AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia  Employment Change news event 

AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia Employment Change news event

==========

Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After 

  1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
  2. Asctrend indicator in depth
  3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
  4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.10.30 08:14

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia CPI and range price movement 

2019-10-30 00:30 GMT | [AUD - CPI]

  • past data is 0.6%
  • forecast data is 0.5%
  • actual data is 0.5% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

==========

From official report :

  • "Rose 0.5% this quarter, compared to a rise of 0.6% in the June 2019 quarter."
  • "Rose 1.7% over the twelve months to the September 2019 quarter, compared to a rise of 1.6% over the twelve months to the June 2019 quarter."

==========

AUD/USD: range price movement by  Australia CPI news event 

AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia CPI news event

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.11.04 13:30

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Retail Sales and range price movement 

2019-11-04 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Retail Sales]

  • past data is 0.4%
  • forecast data is 0.4%
  • actual data is 0.2% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

==========

From official report :

  • "The trend estimate rose 0.2% in September 2019. This follows a rise of 0.2% in August 2019 and a rise of 0.2% in July 2019."
  • "The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 0.2% in September 2019. This follows a rise of 0.4% in August 2019 and a relatively unchanged result (0.0%) in July 2019."

==========

AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia  Retail Sales news event 

AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia Retail Sales news event

============

Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.11.05 11:35

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBA Cash Rate, Rate Statement and range price movement 

2019-11-05 03:30 GMT | [AUD - Cash Rate]

  • past data is 0.75%
  • forecast data is 0.75%
  • actual data is 0.75% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Cash Rate] = Interest rate charged on overnight loans between financial intermediaries.

==========

From official report :

  • "At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 0.75 per cent."
  • "While the outlook for the global economy remains reasonable, the risks are tilted to the downside. The US–China trade and technology disputes continue to affect international trade flows and investment as businesses scale back spending plans because of the uncertainty. At the same time, in most advanced economies, unemployment rates are low and wages growth has picked up, although inflation remains low. In China, the authorities have taken steps to support the economy while continuing to address risks in the financial system."

==========

AUD/USD: range price movement by RBA Cash Rate news event 

AUD/USD: range price movement by RBA Cash Rate news event

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.11.26 07:50

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Deputy Governor Debelle Speech and range price movement 

2019-11-25 23:50 GMT | [AUD - RBA Deputy Gov Debelle Speech]

[AUD - RBA Deputy Gov Debelle Speech] = Speech titled "Employment and Wages" at the Australian Council of Social Service National Conference, in Canberra.

==========

From official report :

  • "Over much of the past three years, employment has grown at a healthy annual pace of 2½ per cent. This has been faster than we had expected, particularly so, given economic growth was slower than we had expected. Employment growth has also been faster than the working-age population has been growing. As a result, the share of the Australian population employed is around its all-time high, which is a good outcome. Normally, we would have expected this strong employment growth to lead to a decline in the unemployment rate. But the unemployment rate has turned out to be very close to what we had expected and has moved sideways around 5¼ per cent for some time now."
  • "Today I have provided an overview of the current state of play in the labour market and the Bank's expectation about how it might evolve in the period ahead. I have highlighted some of the key forces that have shaped these developments, in particular, the rise in the participation rates of female workers and older workers. The Bank is trying to understand what has been driving these macro developments using some newly available micro data sources. This greater understanding should help inform our outlook for the labour market. This increase in labour supply has meant that the strong employment outcomes in recent years has not generated the pick-up in wages growth that might otherwise have occurred. At the same time, I have highlighted the increased prevalence of wages growth in the 2s across the economy. A gradual lift in wages growth would be a welcome development for the workforce and the economy. It is also needed for inflation to be sustainably within the 2–3 per cent target range."

==========

AUD/USD: range price movement by RBA Deputy Gov Debelle Speech news event 

AUD/USD: range price movement by RBA Deputy Gov Debelle Speech news event

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.11.28 10:38

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Private Capital Expenditure and range price movement 

2019-11-28 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Private Capital Expenditure]

  • past data is -0.6%
  • forecast data is 0.0%
  • actual data is -0.2% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Private Capital Expenditure] = Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of new capital expenditures made by private businesses.

==========

From official report :

  • "The seasonally adjusted estimate for total new capital expenditure fell by 0.2% in the September quarter 2019. This follows a fall of 0.6% in the June quarter 2019. The seasonally adjusted estimate for total new capital expenditure fell by 0.2% in the September quarter 2019. This follows a fall of 0.6% in the June quarter 2019."

==========

AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia Private Capital Expenditure news event 

AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia Private Capital Expenditure news event

============

Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.12.03 06:43

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBA Cash Rate, Rate Statement and range price movement 

2019-12-03 03:30 GMT | [AUD - Cash Rate]

  • past data is 0.75%
  • forecast data is 0.75%
  • actual data is 0.75% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Cash Rate] = Interest rate charged on overnight loans between financial intermediaries.

==========

From official report :

  • "The outlook for the global economy remains reasonable. While the risks are still tilted to the downside, some of these risks have lessened recently. The US–China trade and technology disputes continue to affect international trade flows and investment as businesses scale back spending plans because of the uncertainty. At the same time, in most advanced economies unemployment rates are low and wages growth has picked up, although inflation remains low. In China, the authorities have taken steps to support the economy while continuing to address risks in the financial system. Interest rates are very low around the world and a number of central banks have eased monetary policy over recent months in response to the downside risks and subdued inflation. Expectations of further monetary easing have generally been scaled back. Financial market sentiment has continued to improve and long-term government bond yields are around record lows in many countries, including Australia. Borrowing rates for both businesses and households are at historically low levels. The Australian dollar is at the lower end of its range over recent times."
  • "After a soft patch in the second half of last year, the Australian economy appears to have reached a gentle turning point. The central scenario is for growth to pick up gradually to around 3 per cent in 2021. The low level of interest rates, recent tax cuts, ongoing spending on infrastructure, the upswing in housing prices and a brighter outlook for the resources sector should all support growth. The main domestic uncertainty continues to be the outlook for consumption, with the sustained period of only modest increases in household disposable income continuing to weigh on consumer spending. Other sources of uncertainty include the effects of the drought and the evolution of the housing construction cycle."

==========

AUD/USD: range price movement by RBA Cash Rate news event 

AUD/USD: range price movement by RBA Cash Rate news event

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.12.04 10:58

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and range price movement 

2019-12-04 00:30 GMT | [AUD - GDP]

  • past data is 0.6%
  • forecast data is 0.5%
  • actual data is 0.4% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

==========

From official report :

  • "The Australian economy grew by 0.4% in seasonally adjusted chain volume terms in the September quarter."
  • "Domestic final demand contributed 0.2 percentage points to GDP growth, driven by the public sector."

==========

AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia  GDP news event 

AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia GDP news event

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After

  1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
  2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
  3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included)
  4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread

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