Forecast and levels for GOLD (XAU/USD) - page 8
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Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Press review
Sergey Golubev, 2018.03.24 13:59
Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GOLD (based on the article)
XAU/USD - "Gold prices surged this week with the precious metal up nearly 2.7% to trade at 1348 ahead of the New York close on Friday. The losses come amid continued weakness in broader risk assets with all three U.S. Major Indices down more than 4% on the week. For gold, the advance has taken prices through the monthly opening-range highs and keeps the focus higher heading into the monthly close. For gold, the prospect of a more gradual normalization path from the central bank alleviated the recent downward pressure with mounting concerns over the potential for a global trade war stoking demand for the perceived safety of the yellow metal. From a technical standpoint, Gold has stretched into fresh monthly highs with the advance keeping the near-term focus higher heading into next week."
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The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.
Gold is boxed between the 200 day EMA round the 1266 level and the 55 day EMA around the 1285 level. The consolidation may continue between those two level, but a bullish breakout may take the price of gold to the 1300 level. A bearish breakdown will leave the road clear for the price to drop all the way to the 1204 level, with some pull backs on the way down.
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Sergey Golubev, 2018.04.06 14:38
Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/JPY and Gold: Non-Farm Payrolls
2018-04-06 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.
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From official report :
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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events
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USD/JPY M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events
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XAU/USD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events
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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:
All about BrainTrading system for MT5:
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Press review
Sergey Golubev, 2018.04.07 18:38
Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GOLD (based on the article)
XAU/USD - "Gold prices inched higher this week with the precious metal nudging up nearly 0.5% ahead of the New York lose on Friday. The gains come amid continued volatility in broader markets with all three major U.S. equity indices poised to close lower on the week. For gold, this volatility may keep a floor under prices as risk sentiment begins to deteriorate. Gold prices have largely continued to trade within the January range with price holding this descending channel formation off the yearly highs. Daily momentum has failed to offer any guidance here and the focus is on immediate support at 1316 and the yearly high-day reversal close at 1348. We need to clear this range to get clarity on our medium-term outlook."
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The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.
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Sergey Golubev, 2018.04.15 10:27
Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GOLD (based on the article)
XAU/USD - "Gold prices seemed like they were about to shoot for the stars last week as fears of escalating geopolitical tensions around Syria ignited risk aversion. Stocks sank and the relatively higher-yielding US Dollar fell, fueling demand for the anti-fiat yellow metal. However, this trading dynamic quickly reversed, and by Thursday gold gave up its gains from the day before. Cooling Syria conflict tensions and hawkish FOMC meeting minutes helped contribute to this. The week ahead looks to be lighter in terms of economic statistics. The major standout being March’s US retail sales figures that are due on Tuesday. There, consumer spending is expected to increase for the first time in two months by 0.4% m/m. However, data out of the country has been falling short relative to economists’ expectations as of late. A downside surprise may boost gold if the US Dollar declines as a result."
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The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.
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Sergey Golubev, 2018.05.02 20:16
Intra-Day Fundamentals - GBP/USD, USD/JPY and GOLD: FOMC Rate and Statement
2018-05-02 19:00 GMT | [USD - Fed Interest Rate Decision]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Fed Interest Rate Decision] =Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.
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From official report :
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GBP/USD M5: range price movement by Fed Interest Rate Decision news events
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USD/JPY M5: range price movement by Fed Interest Rate Decision news events
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XAU/USD M5: range price movement by Fed Interest Rate Decision news events
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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:
All about BrainTrading system for MT5:
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Sergey Golubev, 2018.05.04 07:52
Gold Demand Trends Q1 2018 (based on the article)
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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:
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Same systems for MT4/MT5:
The beginning
After
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Sergey Golubev, 2018.05.30 06:57
Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index, USD/CAD and GOLD: CB Consumer Confidence
2018-05-29 15:00 GMT | [USD - CB Consumer Confidence]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - CB Consumer Confidence] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed households.
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From official report :
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Dollar Index M15: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events
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USD/CAD M30: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events
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XAU/USD M15: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events
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Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:
==========
Same systems for MT4/MT5:
The beginning
After
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Indicators: FP channel
Sergey Golubev, 2014.02.22 07:22
How to Trade Gold Yearly Pivot Points (adapted from dailyfx article)
- Commodity pit traders have used pivot points for decades to determine potential support and resistance areas.
- Gold yearly pivot points from 2013 forecasted significant turning points
- Gold is approaching the 2014 central yearly pivot point at 1360.82
In this continuing series highlighting the seldom mentioned topic of yearly pivots, gold will be covered in detail. We will look at how yearly pivots in 2013 marked significant turning points in gold as well as the levels to watch out for with the new set of 2014 yearly pivots.The year 2013 was not very kind to the shiny metal. Gold plunged 27% or just over $450/oz. in one of the biggest declines in many years. However, after hitting a three year low of 1178.86 back in December 2013, gold has managed to crawl back higher in 2014.Yearly pivots marked gold's decline with pinpoint accuracy.
Gold 2013 Yearly Pivots :
The sudden and severe $141/oz. drop in gold in the beginning of 2013 caught many gold traders off guard. However, traders who watched gold yearly pivots knew ahead of time that a close below the central pivot (P) at $1661.75/oz.
Notice in the chart above how price hugged the central pivot red line. The close below the yearly central pivot marked the beginning of a year-long decline to 3-year lows.
Even after reaching a low of 1208, the subsequent gold rally in July was stopped dead in its tracks at the S2 yearly pivot at $1392.79/oz. Gold went on to make the low of the year at 1179.86. Yearly pivots were useful for determining the beginning of the decline as well as locating areas to re-enter or add more to a position. You may now be wondering what the 2014 yearly pivots have in store for gold.
Gold 2014 Yearly Pivots :
Gold Yearly Pivot Trading Plan
Gold starts 2014 higher than where it left off in 2013. Crossing above the psychologically important $1300 level, gold is a long way from the lofty highs in the $1900 area. The first major yearly pivot hurdle is just $40.00 away at the central yearly pivot at 1360.82. This was also the highs of October 2013. Pivot points often act as magnets “pulling” price up or down to the nearest pivot.
The current weekly Japanese candlestick pattern is an indecision doji/spinning top. This gives us a “fork in the road” or decision point; price could break higher or lower from this point and continue to trend in the breakout direction. A new candle is due out next Monday and if it can break above the 1332 high of the doji candle could lead to an explosive move toward the R1 pivot and beyond. Moves above the central pivot are regarded as bullish.
On the other hand, a break below 1307.26 low of the weekly doji candle opens move toward the lows of 2013 in the 1186 area and a test of the S1 yearly pivot at 1024.25. Remember that yearly pivots represent potential support and resistance. Using the pivot point calculation on the high low and close of 2013, these levels can be created. Yearly pivot levels can help traders determine price targets for taking profit as well as entry and stop areas.