AUD/USD news - page 5

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The AUDUSD pair is finally taking a hit. It is moving down quickly in the current NY session. The 0.8950 level may be tested in the coming hours. I am not trading the pair, as we are approaching weekend. I will monitor this pair in the next week.

 

AUD/USD weekly outlook: February 24 - 28

The Australian dollar ended the week lower against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, amid expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue to gradually reduce the pace of its asset purchase program

AUD/USD fell to 0.8935 on Thursday, the pair’s lowest since February 13, before subsequently consolidating at 0.8978 by close of trade on Friday, down 0.31% for the day and 0.63% lower for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.8926, the low from February 13 and resistance at 0.9079, the high from February 18.

Data on Friday showed that U.S. existing home sales fell by a larger-than-forecast 5.1% in January to hit an 18-month low.

However, investors continued to look past a recent series of disappointing U.S. economic reports, attributing them to severely cold winter weather.

Wednesday’s minutes of the Federal Reserve’s January meeting showed that officials agreed the current pace of reductions to the bank’s asset purchase program would remain unchanged, so long as the economy shows signs of improvement.

Official also discussed when to begin raising interest rates, the minutes said.

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AUD/USD Forecast March 10-13

AUD/USD had an excellent week, posting gains of about 160 points. The pair closed at 0.9060. The highlights this week are the NAB Business Confidence and Employment Change. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

The Aussie got some help from excellent Australian releases last week, including Building Permits and GDP. In the US, employment numbers looked solid, as Unemployment Claims and Nonfarm

  1. Chinese CPI: Sunday, 1:30. Key Chinese releases can have a major impact on AUD/USD, as China is Australia’s number one trading partner. The indicator has been losing ground, the last two releases coming in at 2.5%. Another drop is expected in the upcoming release, with an estimate of 2.0%.
  2. NAB Business Confidence: Tuesday, 00:30. Business Confidence is a key indicator which can affect the movement of AUD/USD. The indicator has been moving up and rose to 8 points in the January release. The markets are hoping that the upswing continues in the February release.
  3. Westpac Consumer Sentiment: Tuesday, 23:30. This is an important indicator as an increase in consumer sentiment usually translates into stronger consumer spending, a key ingredient of economic growth. The indicator has been mired in a nasty slump, posting four declines in the past five releases.
  4. Home Loans: Wednesday, 00:30. Home Loans is an important gauge of the housing industry as well as consumer spending, as a home is likely the biggest purchase made by a consumer. The indicator disappointed the markets with a decline of 1.9% last month, well below the estimate of +0.5%. The markets are expecting a nice turnaround in February, with the estimate standing at +0.8%.
  5. MI Inflation Expectations: Thursday, 00:00. The indicator has been very steady, with the past two indicators posting a gain of 2.3%. Higher inflation is bullish for the Australian dollar, so a strong release could bolster the currency.

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AUD/USD Forecast April 21-25

AUD/USD remains at high levels, but had an uneventful week, posting modest losses. The pair closed the week at 0.9329. This week’s schedule is light, highlighted by CPI. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

In Australia, Business Confidence and New Motor Vehicle Sales both lost ground in March. Over in the US, Unemployment Claims looked sharp for a second straight week, but dovish comments by Fed chair Janet Yellen weighed on the greenback.

  1. CB Leading Index: Tuesday, 00:00. This important index is based on 7 economic indicators. The indicator posted a weak gain of 0.2% last month, and the markets are hoping for some improvement in the upcoming release.
  2. CPI: Wednesday, 1:30. CPI, released each quarter, is the major event of the week. It is the primary gauge of consumer spending and can have a major impact on the movement of AUD/USD. The indicator posted a respectable gain of 0.8% in Q1, surpassing the estimate of 0.5%. The forecast for the Q2 reading stands at 0.8%.
  3. Trimmed Mean CPI: Wednesday, 1:30. This index excludes the most volatile 30% items which comprise CPI. The Q1 reading improved to 0.9%, beating the estimate of 0.6%. This was the best showing since 2011. The estimate for Q2 is 0.7%.
  4. Chinese HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI: Wednesday, 1:45. Key Chinese indicators such as PMI releases can have a significant impact on AUD/USD, since China is Australia’s number one trading partner. Flash Manufacturing PMI remains under the 50-point level, pointing to contraction in the manufacturing sector. Little change is expected in the March release, with the estimate standing at 48.3 points.

*All times are GMT.

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AUD/USD forecast for the week of May 5, 2014, Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD pair went back and forth during the course of the week, ultimately closing unchanged. It appears that the 0.9250 level will end up being significant in the fact that the market has been gravitating towards it over the last several sessions. With this, we believe that the market on a break above the top of the range for the week is a buying, heading to the 0.95 level. If we break down below the lows of the week, we feel this market heads to the 0.91 handle.

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The AUD/USD pair went back and forth during the course of the week, ultimately settling at roughly 0.9350 for a close. That being the case, we feel that the market is essentially stock and doesn’t know where to go, and we do recognize that the 0.9250 level is the support holding the market up at this point. We believe that the market goes higher, but needs to build up enough momentum to break above the 0.95 handle. If we managed to break down below the 0.92 handle, at that point in time we believe that the momentum would push the market lower.

 

AUD/USD forecast for the week of June 2, 2014

The AUD/USD pair rose during the course of the week, finding the 0.9250 level to be very supportive. With that, we feel that the market continues to go higher, but will probably struggle to reach the 0.95 level in the meantime. After all, it did fail last time and as a result we might be a little bit more sideways been bullish at the moment. Nonetheless, we have no scenario in which to sell this market now, at least until we get below the 0.92 handle. Below there, things get ugly but in the meantime it appears that we will hang around here, and probably test the 0.95 level.

 

AUD/USD Forecast June 2-6

AUD/USD posted a rally late in the week, and the pair closed at 0.9229. It’s a busy week, highlighted by GDP and Retail Sales. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

The Australian dollar managed to post gains despite a sharp decline in Private Capital Expenditure. In the US, a decline in GDP in Q1 hurt the US dollar, but employment and consumer confidence numbers were solid.

  1. AIG Manufacturing Index: Sunday, 23:30. The week kicks off with this minor event. The index has been on a downward trend, and continues to post readings below the 50-point level, indicative of contraction in the manufacturing sector.
  2. MI Inflation Gauge: Monday, 00:30. Inflation Gauge is published each month, and assists analysts in tracking CPI, which is released on a quarterly basis. The indicator posted a gain of 0.4% in April, marking a four-month high.
  3. Building Approvals: Monday, 1:30. This key indicator tends to show sharp fluctuations, making accurate market estimates a tricky task. The indicator posted sharp declines in the past two readings, but the markets are expecting a strong turnaround in the upcoming release, with the estimate standing at 2.1%. Will the indicator follow through with a strong gain?
  4. Company Operating Profits: Monday, 00:30. This indicator is published each quarter, magnifying the impact of each release. The April reading came in at 1.7%, shy of the estimate of 2.3%. The markets are expecting an improvement in May, with an estimate of 2.6%.
  5. Commodity Prices: Monday, 6:30. With a global slowdown showing few signs of recovery, Australian commodity prices continue to post sharp declines. The previous release dropped by 12.6%, and little change is expected in the May release.
  6. Retail Sales: Tuesday, 1:30. Retail Sales is the primary gauge of consumer spending, an important component of economic growth. The April release posted a weak gain of just 0.2%, and little change is expected, with the May estimate standing at 0.3%.

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AUD/USD forecast for the week of June 9

The AUD/USD pair initially fell during the course of the week, but as you can see found enough support just above the 0.92 level to bounce. That bounce formed a hammer, and it now appears as if this general vicinity is going to be a bit of a “staging area”, as the market looks ready to go higher. The 0.95 level will be targeted next in our opinion, and once that area gets broken to the upside, we think that parity will be targeted after that. Selling at this moment time is something we aren’t interested in.

 

AUD/USD weekly outlook: June 9 - 13

The Australian dollar rose to a more than two-week high against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, after the highly-anticipated U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for May came in broadly in line with market expectations.

AUD/USD hit 0.9358 on Friday, the pair’s highest since May 19, before subsequently consolidating at 0.9334 by close of trade on Friday, down 0.06% for the day but 0.25% higher for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.9256, the low from June 5 and resistance at 0.9358, the high from June 6.

The Department of Labor said Friday that the U.S. economy added 217,000 jobs last month, just under expectations for jobs growth of 218,000. The unemployment rate remained steady at a five-and-a-half year low of 6.3%.

The data disappointed some market expectations for a more robust reading but indicated that the U.S. economy continued to shake off the effects of a weather-related slowdown over the winter, bolstering the outlook for the broader economic recovery.

Meanwhile, in Australia, official data released Wednesday showed that the Pacific nation’s economy grew at a rate of 1.1% in the first quarter, above expectations for an expansion of 0.9%.

On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia left its benchmark interest rate at 2.5% in a widely expected move and said that "on present indications, the most prudent course is likely to be a period of stability in interest rates."

Data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission released Friday showed that speculators increased their bullish bets on the Australian dollar in the week ending June 3.

Net longs totaled 21,527 contracts, compared to net longs of 15,848 in the preceding week.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking ahead to Thursday’s U.S. retail sales report for May for further indications on the strength of the economic recovery.

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