The bullish head and shoulder on AUDUSD have been reached - Critical information for the U.S. trading day - General

elisab 2013.09.20 11:34 #21

The targets of the bullish head and shoulder on AUDUSD have been reached. At 0.9512 the 38.2% of Fibonacci retracement. I believe that the rebound can be complete here.

thenews 2013.09.22 11:32 #22

AUD/USD Forecast September 23-27

AUD/USD posted sharp gains following the Fed’s non-taper announcement, but surrendered much of those gains by week’s end. The pair closed the week just shy of the 0.94 line, at 0.9397. This upcoming week is very quiet, with just two releases. Here is an outlook of the events and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

The US dollar was broadly lower following the non-taper announcement by the Federal Reserve. The Aussie posted some sharp gains, but coughed much of them, thanks to strong US releases last week, highlighted by US Unemployment Claims. Manufacturing and housing numbers also looked sharp.

Chinese Flash Manufacturing PMI: Monday, 1:45. Major releases out of China often affect the movement of AUD/USD, since the Asian giant is Australia’s number one trading partner. Manufacturing PMI looked excellent in July, jumping from 47.7 to 50.1 points. It was the first reading above the 50-point level since March. This figure separate between contraction and expansion. The markets are expecting another positive reading, with the estimate for the August release standing at 50.9 points.
RBA Financial Stability Review: Wednesday, 1:30. This is the lone Australian release this week, so it is sure to be closely watched by the markets. The report assesses the financial system and examines possible risks in the system. Analysts will be looking for clues as to future monetary policy. A report which is more hawkish than expected is bullish for the Australian dollar.

* All times are GMT

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thenews 2013.10.06 14:48 #23

AUD/USD Forecast October 7-11

AUD/USD had a solid week, gaining over one cent. The pair closed the week at 0.9435. This week’s highlight is Employment Change. Here is an outlook of the events and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

The Australian dollar has benefited from the US shutdown, which has hurt the US dollar. As well, the Aussie got a boost from the RBA, which maintained its benchmark interest rate and hinted that it will not be reducing rates in the near future.

AIG Construction Index: Sunday, 22:30. The Construction Index continues to post readings well below the 50-level, indicating ongoing contraction in the construction industry. The August release came in at 43.7 points and no significant change is expected in the upcoming release.
ANZ Job Advertisements: Tuesday, 00:30. This indicator is an important gauge of activity in the employment sector. The indicator continues to post declines, with the August release coming in at -2.0%. Another decline is expected in the September release.
NAB Business Confidence: Tuesday, 00:30. Business Confidence jumped to 6 points in the previous release, its best showing in over two years. Will the indicator follow suit with another sharp release for September?
Westpac Consumer Sentiment: Tuesday, 23:30. Consumer Sentiment has posted solid in the post two releases. Strong consumer confidence usually translates into consumer spending, which is a key engine of economic growth. The markets are hoping for another positive reading in the September release.
MI Inflation Expectations: Tuesday, 00:30. This indicator helps analysts keep track of actual inflation. The indicator weakened last month, with a gain of 1.5%. This was the lowest gain in over six years, and the markets will be looking for stronger numbers in the September release.
Employment Change: Thursday, 00:30. This market-mover is one of the most important economic indicators and is eagerly waited by the markets. The indicator has run into some trouble, with sharp declines in the past two releases. The markets are expecting a strong turnaround in the upcoming release, with an estimate of a gain of 15.2 thousand. Will the indicator meet or beat this prediction? The Unemployment Rate has been steady, and is not expected to change from its present level of 5.8%.
Chinese Trade Balance: Saturday, Tentative. Chinese Trade Balance shot up to $28.5 billion in August, up from $17.8 billion the previous month. The markets are expecting another strong release in September, with an estimate of $25.2 billion. The Australian dollar is sensitive to key Chinese data, so this indicator could have a major impact on the direction of AUD/USD.

* All times are GMT

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thenews 2013.10.13 11:41 #24

AUD/USD weekly outlook: October 14 - 18

The Australian dollar ended Friday’s session modestly higher against its U.S. counterpart, amid hopes that U.S. political leaders would reach a compromise to raise the country's borrowing limit and avert a sovereign debt default.

AUD/USD hit 0.9485 on Friday, the pair’s highest since September 19; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.9466 by close of trade on Friday, up 0.13% on the day and 0.35% higher for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.9390, the low from October 10 and resistance at 0.9524, the high from September 19.

Investor confidence was boosted as House Republicans and the Obama administration began a second day of negotiations on a deal to reopen the government and raise the U.S. debt ceiling for six weeks.

The federal government has been shut down since October 1. Lawmakers must raise the national borrowing limit by October 17 or run the risk of a U.S. sovereign debt default.

Concerns over economic impact of the U.S budget and debt ceiling impasse fuelled expectations that the Federal Reserve will further delay plans to start phasing out its USD85 billion a month asset purchase program.

Wednesday’s minutes of the Fed’s September meeting said the decision not to begin tapering stimulus was a "close call," with all but one voting member opting to leave the program unchanged.

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thenews 2013.10.20 17:29 #25

AUD/USD Outlook October 21-25

AUD/USD surged last week, as the pair picked up over two cents. The pair closed at 0.9675. This week’s highlight is CPI. Here is an outlook of the events and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

The Australian dollar took advantage as the US dollar sagged last week, as initial optimism over the debt deal in Congress faded. Australian releases were not particularly sharp, but the Aussie got a boost as RBA minutes indicated that the central bank was unlikely to lower rates before the end of 2013.

CB Leading Index: Monday, 23:00. This important index is based on 7 economic indicators. The index has been subdued in 2013, and posted a gain of 0.3% last month. The markets will be hoping for a stronger gain for September.
CPI: Wednesday, 00:30. This is the key event of the week. The index released each quarter, has posted two straight gains of 0.4%, but the markets are expecting a jump to 0.8% in Q3. Will the indicator match or beat this rosy prediction?
Trimmed Mean CPI: Wednesday, 00:30. Trimmed Mean CPI excludes the most volatile components of CPI. The index rose to 0.5% in Q2, and the markets are expecting the upward trend to continue, with an estimate of 0.7% for Q3.
Philip Lowe: Tuesday, 3:00. Lowe will address a financial conference in Melbourne. Analysts will be looking for clues as to the RBA’s future monetary policy, and a hawkish speech is bullish for the Australian dollar.

AUD/USD started the week at 0.9446 and dropped to a low of 0.9434. The pair then climbed sharply, touching a high of 0.9677, breaking past resistance at 0.967o (discussed last week). The pair closed the week at 0.9675.

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thenews 2013.10.22 20:48 #26

Australia CPI On Tap For Wednesday

Australia will on Wednesday release Q3 numbers for consumer prices, highlighting a modest day for Asia-Pacific economic activity.

Consumer prices are expected to rise 0.8 percent on quarter and 1.8 percent on year after gaining 0.4 percent on quarter and 2.4 percent on year in the second quarter.

The Reserve Bank of Australia's trimmed mean is predicted to gain 0.6 percent on quarter and 2.1 percent on year after rising 0.5 percent on quarter and 2.2 percent on year in Q2.

The RBA's weighted median is called higher by 0.6 percent on quarter and 2.3 percent on year following the 0.7 percent quarterly increase and the 2.6 percent yearly gain in the previous three months.

Australia also will see August results for the Conference Board's leading index, as well as skilled vacancy numbers for September. Both were up 0.3 percent on month in their respective prior months.

Singapore will release inflation data for September; in August, CPI was up 0.8 percent on month and 2.0 percent on year.

Malaysia also will provide CPI figures for September. Analysts are expecting an increase of 0.6 percent on month and 2.5 percent on year following the 0.1 percent monthly increase and the 1.9 percent yearly gain in August.

Finally, stock markets in Thailand will be closed in observance of Chulalongkorn Day, and will re-open on Thursday.

source ...

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thenews 2013.10.23 04:33 #27

Australia to raise debt limit by two-thirds to A$500bn

The Australian government has said it plans to raise the country's debt limit by two-thirds to allay concerns it could face a future fiscal crisis.

The newly-elected conservative government is looking to raise the borrowing limit to A$500bn ($486bn; £300bn).

Australia is forecast to reach its current A$300bn ceiling in December.

Treasurer Joe Hockey said that he wanted to avoid a crisis similar to the recent US fiscal emergency.

"The debt limit needs to be set so as to provide sufficient headroom to ensure there is stability and certainty for the financial markets about the government's capacity to finance its operations for the foreseeable future," Mr Hockey said.

"We need not look any further than the recent events in the United States to realise how imperative for stability and certainty is for confidence."

Earlier this month, the US government was partially shutdown for 16 days after the Democrats and Republicans were unable to reach an agreement over the country's budget and raising the debt ceiling.

The situation was resolved last week after Congress hammered together a last-minute deal to temporarily raise the debt limit until the end of the first week of February 2014.

However, financial markets were rattled by the US political deadlock, which brought the country closer to the possibility of defaulting on its debts.

There was little reaction in the Australian financial markets to Tuesday's announcement.

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thenews 2013.10.24 04:36 #28

AUD/USD rises after China PMI data

The Australian dollar traded higher against its U.S counterpart during Thursday’s Asian session following some decent economic data out of China.

In Asian trading Thursday, AUD/USD rose 0.38% to 0.9660. The pair was likely to find support at 0.9528, the low of October 17 and resistance at 0.9756. That still puts the Aussie in the area of five-month highs against the greenback.

Earlier Thursday, the HSBC China flash PMI climbed to a seven-month high of 50.9 in October. The HSBC final PMI reading for September was 50.2, well below the flash estimate of 51.2. China, the world’s second-largest economy, is Australia’s largest export market.

The flash PMI reading for October "implies that China’s growth recovery is becoming consolidated into 4Q following the bottoming out in 3Q. This momentum is likely to continue in the coming months, creating favorable conditions for speeding up structural reforms," according to HSBC.

Output, new orders and new export orders all increased at faster clips, but the employment index fell. Input and output prices rose, but at slower rates.

On Wednesday in Australia, official data showed that consumer price inflation rose by 1.2% in the third quarter, exceeding expectations for a 0.8% increase, after a 0.4% rise in the three months to June.

Trimmed mean consumer price inflation, which excludes the most volatile 30% of items, rose 0.7% in the September quarter, more than the expected 0.6% uptick, after an upwardly revised 0.6% increase in the second quarter.

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thenews 2013.11.17 16:44 #29

AUD/USD Forecast Nov. 18-22

AUD/USD had an uneventful week, and was unchanged at week’s end. The pair closed the week at 0.9365. This week’s key event is the RBA’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

Australian numbers were mixed last week, but the key event was a disappointment, as Business Confidence was down sharply. In the US, Unemployment Claims and Trade Balance missed their estimates.

CB Leading Index: Monday, 23:00. This composite index is based on 7 economic indicators. The indicator has looked weak, with two declines in the past three releases. The previous reading came in at -0.2% and the markets will be hoping for some improvement in the October reading.
Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Tuesday, 00:30. This is the major event of the week. Analysts will be carefully reading through the RBA minutes, looking for clues as to future monetary policy. At the previous policy meeting, the Bank did not reduce rates, but did state that it felt the Aussie was overvalued, and the currency could lose ground as the minutes reiterate this assessment.
MI Leading Index: Tuesday, 23:30. This index is based on 9 economic indicators but is considered a minor release, since most of the data has already been released. Last month’s decline of -0.1% marked the index’s first decline in almost two years.
RBA Assistant Governor Guy Debelle Speaks: Wednesday, 00:30. Debelle will participate on a panel discussing international finance at an event in Sydney. Remarks which are more hawkish than expected is bullish for the Australian dollar.
RBA Governor Glenn Stevens Speaks: Thursday, 9:05. Stevens will deliver a speech about the Australian dollar at an event in Sydney. The RBA Governor has made off-the-cuff remarks in the past which have caused some volatility in the currency markets, so analysts will be carefully monitoring Steven’s remarks.

AUD/USD news - page 3