AUD/USD news - page 9
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AUD/USD forecast for the week of September 15
The AUD/USD pair absolutely fell apart during the week, slicing through the 0.92 level, and then the 0.90 level. With that, we feel that the market should continue to show bearishness, but the 0.90 level should offer a bit of support. With that being the case, we are bearish but recognize that selling in this general vicinity might be difficult. Any rally from here will more than likely be a selling opportunity, so as a result we are looking for some type of resistant candle above in order to start selling.
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AUD/USD loses 0.90 extending the Sunday gap
The Aussie surrendered to pressure from the weak Chinese releases over the weekend and fell below the 0.90 level. It came after a struggle during the Asian session, but as traders in Europe arrive, the level is gone
New motor vehicle sales dropped by 1.8% in Australia during August and the drop reported in July was revised to the downside: from 1.3% to 1.5% according to the new data. This added a bit more pressure, but it wasn’t the main trigger.
China, Australia’s No. 1 trade partner, reported a y/y rise of only 6.9% in industrial output during the month of August – the worst since 2008. This added to already falling prices of iron ore.
The new low is 0.8989. The pair hasn’t gone too far, but the weekend gap is certainly visible on the chart and doesn’t bode well for the A$. These are the lowest level since March.
Further levels below are 0.8910 and 0.8820 and 0.8740. On the topside, 0.9060 could stop a recovery attempt
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AUD/USD slips under 0.90 again – 3 reasons
The Australian dollar is falling once again under the round 0.90 line. Various forces are behind the downwards move..
Here are three reasons. Is this the real break?
China: Chinese Foreign Direct Investment is down 1.8% for August and around 14% y/y. This weakness from Australia’s No. 1 trade partner joins disappointing data from the weekend, showing that industrial output is rising at the lowest level since 2008.
RBA: The Reserve Bank of Australia expressed its wish to see a weaker Australian dollar via its monetary policy meeting minutes and through a speech by Assistant Governor Christopher Kent.
USD strength: After a wide sell off of the dollar following the weak industrial output numbers yesterday, the greenback is rising once again: the pound, euro and other currencies began the day lower, without specific triggers. The FOMC meeting looms.
The chart shows that the pair managed to bounce after falling to 0.8985 yesterday, and it even managed to close the gap. This is not the first time that we see a bounce on the 0.90 level. We had false alarms several times in the past.
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Aussie dollar slumps after Westpac survey, ahead of Fed meet
The Australian dollar slumped on Wednesday after a disappointing survey on growth prospects and ahead of a key Federal Reserve monetary policy announcement later in the day.
The New Zealand dollar fell furthery after the current account deficit shrank from 2.7% of GDP to 2.5% for the year to June 2014, with the broader focus on the Federal Reserve.
NZD/USD traded at 0.8176, down 0.28%. AUD/USD traded at 0.9072, down 0.25%, while USD/JPY changed hands at 107.26, up 0.14%.
Australia's August Westpac-MI leading index fell 0.09 point to 98.05, continuing below trend since February.
"Overall, we can conclude that commodity prices have intensified their drag on the growth rate; the slowdown in dwelling approvals has led to a reversal in the effect which that series is having on the index; consumers are less nervous around the labor market; and the flattening of the yield curve has become a drag on growth," said Westpac's chief economist Bill Evans.
Overnight, the dollar edged lower against most major currencies in afternoon trading as investors backtracked on previous bets the Federal Reserve's monetary policy statement due out Wednesday could contain hawkish language.
The Federal Reserve will announce its latest statement on monetary policy this Wednesday, and expectations for the U.S. central bank to cut its monthly bond-buying program to $15 billion from $25 billion kept the greenback firm.
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AUD/USD at fresh 6 month lows on post FOMC dollar rush
The Australian dollar could only temporarily materialize on good news coming out of China, and it’s on the back foot once again. 0.8950 is the new low.
The Aussie is surrendering to the strength of the greenback, that is enjoying a surge after the Fed decision and the accompanying statement by Chair Yellen. What’s next?
0.8910 served as support in February and in March and is the next support line. It is followed by 0.8820, which capped the pair around the same time early in the year.
Below, we find 0.8730 as weak support, after it temporarily held the pair at that time. 0.8658 is the last line – this is the cycle low recorded in January.
AUD/USD forecast for the week of September 22, 2014
The AUD/USD pair tried to break higher during the course of the week, but then dropped below the 0.90 handle. The 0.89 level below offered support, so we are not willing to sell this market until we break down below that level. However, if we do it would not only break down below the last vestiges of support, but would also trigger a move lower based upon the shooting star. That shooting star signifies that we could go as low as the 0.8650 level, where we would expect to see a significant amount of support. On the other hand, we would be bullish above the 0.92 level.
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The Aussie goes down under
After the excitement of last week, FX markets are back to reality, which includes fresh concerns regarding the fine balancing act going on in China. Asian stocks and key commodities are starting the week softer, after comments from the Chinese Finance Minister played down the possibility of more stimulus from the government. This is the issue China has, namely that is needs to see the economy slow down and move away from excessive capital expenditure, but not too much that it starts to cause problems elsewhere, including civil unrest. We’ll get more on that front early tomorrow with the release of the HSBC manufacturing PMI index, the last reading hanging just above the key 50.0 level at 50.2. Iron ore prices have continued lower last week and overnight, with copper also retracing lower, currently trading around a 3 month low.
Relating this back to FX markets, it’s not surprising to see the Aussie on the back foot, holding just above the 0.89 level as we come into European session. After the volatility of last week, sterling is finding its feet again, having moved above the 1.63 level on cable seen into the Friday close. This could be the one to watch going into month end, should investors who had shunned sterling based assets as the Scottish referendum result loomed ever larger start to reposition into month end. Elsewhere, the data calendar is relatively light today, with just US new home sales released at 14:00 GMT. Perhaps of greater interest will be ECB President Draghi appearing before the European Parliament (economic and monetary affairs committee) given the intense focus on ECB policy and the threat of deflation in the eurozone. EURUSD continues to languish near to the lows for the year, currently at 1.2826.
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Invest Diva updated our weekly video report about AUD/USD, EUR/USD, USD/CHF.
Mr. Aussie broke below the 61% Fibonacci level and rapidly approaching our bearish targets at 0.8839 and 0.8659. Only a break above 0.91 would alter our outlook to bullish.
Australian dollar sharply down after Stevens remarks
The Australian dollar fell sharply on Thursday after the central bank chief called for more risk taking, while the Japanese yen shrugged off remarks from the prime minister.
AUD/USD traded at 0.8830, down 0.63%, while USD/JPY traded at 109.15, up 0.10%.
Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens made remarks on risk taking at a speech on Thursday and suggested that the economy needed more push.
On Wednesday, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe voiced concerns over the economic impact of recent weakness in the yen.
Abe reportedly said that the weaker yen had both positive and negative impacts and that he wanted to carefully watch the impact of yen weakness on regional economies and on small and mid-sized companies.
Overnight, the dollar firmed against most major currencies after data revealed far more new homes were sold in August than markets were expecting.
The Census Bureau reported earlier that U.S. new home sales rose 18.0% last month to 504,000 units, far surpassing expectations for a 4.4% gain to 430,000 units. New home sales for July were revised to a 1.9% increase from a previously estimated 2.4% drop.
Separately, the Department of Energy reported earlier that crude stockpiles plunged by 4.3 million barrels last week, confounding market calls for a build of 386,000, which further stoked expectations that the U.S. economy is improving as evidenced by its demand for fuel and energy.
Wednesday's data came a day after a report showed that the U.S. manufacturing sector expanded in September close to market expectations, which fueled already growing expectations that the Federal Reserve may hike interest rates sooner than markets have previously expected.
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AUD/USD forecast for the week of September 29, 2014
The AUD/USD pair fell directly at the open of the week in just continued lower. We managed to break down below the 0.88 level, which of course is a very negative sign. We believe that the 0.87 level below is supportive though, so we figure that the market isn’t going to be able to break down too much from here, but gold certainly is not helping the situation. If we get below the 0.87 level however, this market will then head to the 0.85 handle. We have no plans whatsoever on buying.
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