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EUR/USD: investors lost confidence in the European currency Current trend Thursday became another hot day for investors and the European currency. Most investors did not doubt that the Euro would continue to weaken against a backdrop of decreasing economy growth rates and political tension within the eurozone. But nobody expected that the Swiss National bank would decide to abandon the franc peg against the euro. Due to the sharp weakening of the Euro, the SNB was forced to weaken the franc artificially in order to back up a minimum level of 1.20, and the Central regulator had to choose the lesser of two evils: to drown with the euro or to "unpeg" the franc to the detriment of national export. Thus, the European currency broke all possible lows and reached a level of 1.1570. Today's information on the eurozone's key indexes and more exact data on December's inflation will probably influence the dynamics of the pair. It's worth noting that the euro will remain under pressure until the ECB''s key meeting. If Mario Draghi does not succeed in reversing the situation and gaining back the confidence in the euro, a further downward movement will be irreversible. Some experts think that the ECB could start full-scale quantitative easing on 22d January to stimulate the economy. But in this case, the European currency will be under even bigger pressure and the pair may reach a level of 1.1400/1.1350. Support and resistance Support levels: 1.1625, 1.1600, 1.1570, 1.1550, 1.1500, 1.1400, 1.1375, 1.1350. Resistance levels: 1.1650, 1.1675, 1.1700, 1.1730, 1.1760, 1.1800, 1.1850. Trading tips The situation suggests building up short positions and opening pending short positions from key resistance levels with profit fixing at 1.1400, or at 1.1300- 1.1250 (in the medium term).
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
GBP/USD: demand for overbought dollar only increases Current trend The pound made several unsuccessful attempts of recovering against the dollar last week, and then resumed declining to a local minimum of 1.5030. Sharp sales of the European currency enabled the pound's rise in demand. The pair is trading in a narrow sideways channel of 1.5120-1.5190. No high volatility is expected today, the economic calendar has no important releases concerning the UK, whereas the US is celebrating Martin Luther King Day today. Support and resistance The pound will need favourable macroeconomic data in order to regain investors' confidence. It's worth noting that investors fear to trade against the dollar these days even if they think that the pair has reached the bottom: the bottom was broken several times in the last months. Given upward correction of the pair, the demand for dollars is only increasing which holds the pair near local minimums, and weak macroeconomic information on the UK or strong US statistics may open way to new minimums: 1.5000, 1.4900, 1.4825. Support levels: 1.5075, 1.5050, 1.5030, 1.5000, 1.4900, 1.4825. Resistance levels: 1.5190, 1.5225, 1.5270, 1.5350, 1.5430, 1.5485, 1.5550. Trading tips The current situation suggests building up short positions and opening pending short positions from key resistance levels with profit fixing at 1.5030, or at 1.4900-1.4825 in the middle term.
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst at LiteForex Investments Limited
XAU/USD: analysis and forecast Current trend Last week, the XAU/USD managed to break the level of 1245.00 that coincides with 61,8% Fibonacci level and serves as a powerful resistance line. Afterwards, gold faced a level of 1260.00, which was broken as well. Finally, the pair traded at about 1280.00 at the end of the trading session. Gold consolidated in a narrow range of 1273.00-1281.00 yesterday, but today it has moved beyond its limits and headed upwards. Bulls' next target will be a level of 1300.00 but correction to a level of 1260.00 is not excluded and may be used for opening long positions. Technically, indicators are pointing to growth: all moving averages are directed upwards; MACD is in the positive zone and the signal line crosses the histogram; Stochastic both lines are directed upwards. Support and resistance The nearest resistance levels are at 1295.00 and 1300.00. Support lines are at 1273,00, 1266.00, 1260.00. Bears' main target is retracing below 1260.00. Trading tips Short positions should be opened from a level of 1300.00 and below the levels 1280.00, 1273.00. Long positions should be opened after the price has consolidated above 1300.00 and from the levels 1280.00, 1260.00.
Ilya Lashenko Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of AUD/USD AUD/USD, H4 Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line has crossed Kijun-sen from above, giving a singal to sell, but then both lines turned upwards. Chinkou Span line is crossing the price chart from above, current cloud is ascending. The closest resistance level is Tenkan-sen line (0.8196), upper border of the cloud will be a support level at 0.8151.
AUD/USD, D1 On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line has crossed Kijun-sen from below, indivating the beginning of trend reversal. Chinkou Span line is approaching the price chart from below, current cloud is descending. The closest support level is Kijun-sen line (0.8163). The next obstacle for the price on its way up will be the lower border of the cloud at 0.8350.
Key levels Support levels: 0.8163, 0.8151. Resistance levels: 0.8196, 0.8350. Trading tips On the four-hour chart we can see the first sign of trend reversal, short-term sell positions can be opened at current price with targets at 0.8151. On the daily chart downward trend is turning into an upward one. Mid-term buy positions may reach the level of 0.8350. Anastasiya Glushkova Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
EUR/USD: analysis and forecast Current trend Yesterday was quite volatile for the EUR/USD. The pair traded in a narrow range of 1.1540-1.1580 before noon. Then the dollar fell in price sharply owing to the negative information on the US construction sector. A bit later, the market reacted to the news regarding the ECB's upcoming meeting. The European regulator is about to launch a monthly assets buyout program worth 50 billion euro. As a result, the EUR/USD grew by over 100 points refreshing its highs at about 1.1680 and started to slowly decrease afterwards. The pair is currently trading at 1.1620. Support and resistance The resistance levels are 1.1640, 1.1650, and 1.1680. The support levels are 1.1580, 1.1540, 1.1490, and 1.1460. Bulls' main target is to consolidate below a level of 1.1500. Trading tips Further dynamics will depend on the ECB's decision. The most likely scenario is a fall in the EUR/USD rate. Sell below the levels of 1.1580 and 1.1500. Buy above a level of 1.1680. It would be also wise to place Sell Limit orders at 1.1650.
Ilya Lashenko Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of XAU/USD XAU/USD, H4 Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, the red line is horizontal, while the blue one is directed upwards. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart; current Kumo-cloud is ascending. The pair has been corrected to the Tenkan-sen line, Kijun-sen becomes the closest support level (1289.24). One of the previous maximums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a resistance level at 1301.95.
XAU/USD, D1 On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is also above Kijun-sen, the red line is directed upwards, while the blue one remains horizontal. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart; current Kumo-cloud is ascending. Despite small correction, the pair is still rising. Tenkan-sen line becomes a support level (1266.09). One of the previous maximums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a resistance level at 1313.19.
Key levels Support levels: 1289.24, 1266.09. Resistance levels: 1301.95, 1313.19. Trading tips On the both charts the pair is still trading within the upward trend. Targets for the buy positions are 1301.95 and 1313.19. Anastasiya Glushkova Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
EUR/USD: analysis and forecast Current trend The ECB announced a start of an assets buyout program on Thursday, which caused a stormy market reaction. Investors were prepared for that, but were not able to predict the program volume. The ECB plans to spend about 1.1 trillion euro on buying out assets, which equals about 60 billion per month. The EUR/USD had fallen to a level of 1.1360 by the end of Thursday, and the fall continued on Wednesday with the pair reaching a level of 1.1111. Today, the decline went on at the opening of the session and the EUR/USD refreshed its lows again. Afterwards, the pair corrected to a level of 1.1260 at which it is trading now. Finally, the euro is expected to fall below parity. Today's economic calendar seems empty, therefore the pair is most likely to be trading above 1.2000. Information on durable goods orders and consumer confidence index will be released tomorrow. Investors' particular attention will be riveted on the Fed's comments on monetary policy that will be published on Wednesday. Technically, the pair is under correction and we will be able soon to witness another attempt to overcome the nearest lows. Support and resistance The resistance levels are 1.1260, 1.1320, 1.1355, 1.1400. The support levels are 1.1230, 1.1200, 1.1150, 1.1100. Bears' nearest target is overcoming a level of 1.2000, the main target is consolidating below 1.1100. Trading tips Sell below the levels 1.1200 and 1.1100. Buy above 1.1260 but remember to place protective orders. Place sell limit orders at 1.1320.
Ilya Lashchenko Analyst at LiteForex Investments Limited
GBP/USD: analysis and forecast Current trend The pair made several attempts of breaking above a level of 1.5050 yesterday, and managed to consolidate above a level of 1.5070 (38,2% Fibonacci). The information on UK GDP published today turned out to be worse than predicted and made the pair drop to a level of 1.5050. However, the pair regained the previous levels almost immediately. Investors will be waiting for today's information on construction orders and US consumer confidence index, but the main attention will be focused tomorrow on the Fed's comments regarding the monetary policy. Investors are particularly interested in the comments on an upcoming interest rate rise that might happen in the middle of this year, according to most analysts. Support and resistance The closest resistance level and at the same time bulls' main target is 1.5110. Its breakout will open a way to new levels which are 1.5125, 1.5150, and 1.5175. The support levels are 1.5075, 1.5060, 1.5030, and 1.5000. Trading tips Long positions should be opened above a level of 1.5110 with targets at 1.5150 and 1.5200. Sell after the price has consolidated below 1.5050. Buy Limit orders should be placed at 1.5200 and 1.5150.
Ilya Lashenko Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
EUR/USD: analysis and forecast Current trend On Tuesday, the dollar fell in price against the euro and a basket of major currencies after mixed economic news from the US was published. Thus, durable goods orders reduced 3.4% in December having disproved a 0.5% growth forecast. Core durable goods orders reduced 0.8% over the same period. In the meanwhile, the US consumer confidence index grew up to 102.9 points. This is the highest value since August 2007. The euro may consolidate slightly today before the US Fed's meeting. It seems hard to forecast the decision the US monetary authorities will take owing to the world's unstable economy. Apparently, the interest rate will remain the same, which will lead to the euro continuing to grow against the dollar. In case the Fed decides to raise the key rate, the euro will weaken substantially, therefore short positions are recommended: the US regulator's decision will have a long-life effect. Support and resistance The closest resistance level is a price 1.1383 - today's trading maximums. The support level is a price 1.1306 – a 55-period moving average. Trading tips Open long positions at current price with a target at 1.1383 and protective order at 1.1306. http://www.liteforex.com/uploads/other/6c305956be0356b9e6a639cdc8e82e99.jpeg"> Vadim Smarzh Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
USD/JPY: the dollar to increase advantage Current trend The pair has been trading in a narrow sideways range of 118.80-117.25 for 2 weeks. The Japanese currency has made several unsuccessful attempts to recover, but has not managed to reach a level of 117.25. The 2-week absence of important macroeconomic data on Japan and the US decreased trading volumes, as investors focused on European leaps. Yesterday, all major currencies consolidated against the dollar, but the USD/JPY showed almost no reaction to the weakening of the dollar. Tonight there was published information on retail sales in Japan. Contrary to favourable forecasts, the index lowered to a level of 0,2%. The US labour market statistics are worth attention today. Tomorrow, consumer price and industrial production indexes will be released in Japan. If the information confirms favourable forecasts, the pair may drop to a key support level of 116.00. Support and resistance Apparently, yen consolidation will be temporary as the main tendency remains ascending. In the medium term, the pair will grow to the levels 120.25 and 121.00. Support levels: 117.25, 117.00, 116.10, 116.00, 115.50. Resistance levels: 118.00, 118.80, 119.00 119.50, 119.90, 120.25, 121.00. Trading tips Increase long positions and open pending long positions from the levels 117.25, 117.00, 116.00 with profit fixing at 120.25.
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited