LiteForex Analytics - page 83
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NZD/USD: budget surplus
Current trend
Having declined on Tuesday, the NZD/USD pair has strengthened today, supported by the publication of New Zealand budget for fiscal year 2015. The surplus amounted to NZ$414 million against a NZ$2.8 billion deficit in the previous fiscal year.
Since the beginning of the month, the pair has strengthened to June’s levels after weak labor market statistics were released in the US.
Today, it is worth noting a block of US releases, the most important of which is Retail Sales data for September.
Support and resistance
The price is unlikely to overcome the levels of 0.6820 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart), 0.6890 (50.0% Fibonacci and the upper border of a downward channel on the weekly chart) until RBNZ and the Federal Reserve meetings, due 28 October.
An upward trend is getting less strong that is supported by OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the daily chart, despite of the fact that the indicators are giving buy signals on the 4-hour chart. While the price remains below the levels of 0.6820 (ЕМА144), 0.7000 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), it tends to decline.
Support levels: 0.6645, 0.6610, 0.6500, 0.6435, 0.6410, 0.6385, 0.6300.
Resistance levels: 0.6760, 0.6820, 0.6890, 0.7000.
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from the levels of 0.6760, 0.6740, 0.6720 with targets at 0.6690, 0.6650 and stop-loss at 0.6775.
Pending Buy Limit orders can be placed at the levels of 0.6640, 0.6610 with targets at 0.6690, 0.6740, 0.6790, 0.6820 and stop-loss at 0.6590.
EUR/USD: Europe has problems too
Current trend
On Wednesday, the US currency declined when the US released negative Retail Sales and Production Prices statistics for September that may indicate a slowdown in country’s economy. Today, poor Consumer Price Index may push the USD further down.
On Thursday, EU leaders will meet in Brussels. They are expected to focus on migration issue.
Consumer Price Index and Trade Balance statistics, due tomorrow in the eurozone, may weaken the single currency.
Support and resistance
Yesterday, the EUR/USD pair consolidated above the important resistance 1.1380 (EMA200 on the daily chart) and approached 1.1500 (EMA50 on the weekly chart). The price is in the middle of an upward channel on the weekly chart with the upper border at 1.1785 (Fibonacci 38.2%), which may be reached in case of negative US statistics. At the same time, poor EU indicators may hold the price near the range of 1.1380 (ЕМА200)-1.1255 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart).
On the daily and weekly charts, OsMA and Stochastic indicators recommend long positions, while on the 4-hour chart, they are likely to start giving sell signals.
Support levels: 1.1400, 1.1380, 1.1285, 1.1255, 1.1210.
Resistance levels: 1.1450, 1.1500.
Trading tips
Pending Sell Stop orders can be placed from the level of 1.1420 with targets at 1.1380, 1.1285, 1.1255 and stop-loss at 1.1475.
Pending Buy Stop can be placed from the level of 1.1485 with targets at 1.1500, 1.1550, 1.1590 and stop-loss at 1.1430.
USD/CAD: pair declines
Current trend
Today, despite the USD decline, oil prices are falling ahead of the publication of EIA Crude Oil Stocks change for the last week of October. A growing indicator may strengthen the USD/CAD pair, which has significantly declined since the beginning of the month.
Today, attention should be paid to the block of US releases, the most important of which, besides Crude Oil Stocks change, will be Consumer Price Index for September.
Support and resistance
At present, a decline in the USD/CAD pair should be seen as a downward correction. When the price reaches the key support levels of 1.2820 (50.0% Fibonacci) and 1.2785 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart), it may turn up and start growing to 1.2965 (38.2% Fibonacci) and further to 1.3140 (23.6% Fibonacci and ЕМА200, 144 on the 4-hour chart). Otherwise, it may hit new lows at 1.2875 and decline further to 1.2820, 1.2785.
OsMA and Stochastic indicators on all charts, from the 4-hour to monthly, recommend short positions.
Support levels: 1.2875, 1.2820, 1.2785.
Resistance levels: 1.2965, 1.3000, 1.3070.
Trading tips
Pending Sell Stop orders can be placed at the level of 1.2865 with targets at 1.2810, 1.2785 and stop-loss at 1.2910.
Pending Buy Stop orders can be placed at the level of 1.2930 with targets at 1.2965, 1.2990, 1.3020, 1.3070 and stop-loss at 1.2880.
Brent: general review
Current trend
Yesterday the price of Brent crude oil grew by almost $2 above the level of 49.00.
The growth was the result of larger than expected drop in the US oil reserves that was reported yesterday. According to the publication, Gasoline Inventories fell by 1 million barrels, while Distillates Stocks declined by 3 million barrels.
Currently, however, there does not seem to be any factors that would support the growth continuation. Therefore, most likely the price is going to correct downwards.
Support and resistance
Technical indicators give controversial signals.
The price broke out the upper MA of Bollinger Bands, while bands keep widening that confirms downward movement. However, MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes are growing that indicates that Bullish sentiment prevails.
Support levels: 48.00, 47.00, 46.35.
Resistance levels: 49.19, 50.00, 51.00.
Trading tips
Open short positions after the breakdown of the level of 48.00 with the target at 47.00.
Long positions can be opened after the breakout and consolidation above the level of 50.00 with the target at 51.00.
GBP/USD: review and forecast
Current trend
On Thursday, the GBP/USD pair gained support from negative macroeconomic statistics, released in the US, and continues strengthening today. Third quarter GDP growth slowed down from 3.9% to 1.5%, while analysts expected a decline to 1.6%. Personal Consumption Expenditures fell to 1.2% against a forecasted growth to 3.2%. Amid the abovementioned data, the GBP/USD pair has strengthened to its week high at 1.5358, but has not managed to consolidate above this level yet.
Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, Bollinger Bands indicator is not giving any clear trading signals. The price range is narrowing down that indicates a possibility of a downward movement. MACD histogram is in the negative zone, its volumes are falling gradually.
Support levels: 1.5308, 1.5280, 1.5240.
Resistance levels: 1.5358, 1.53581, 1.5416.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 1.5350 with the target at 1.5381. If the price overcomes this level, it may continue growing to 1.5416.
Short positions can be opened after the consolidation below the level of 1.5308 with targets at 1.5280, 1.5240 and 1.5201.
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