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Brent: oil price back to $66-67 a barrel
Current trend
This week Brent crude oil prices moves within a wide descending range. This week, amid favorable stats on Mortgage Rates, Labor Market and Personal Spending, US dollar is gradually strengthening against all other major currencies. Now the oil price is hovering around $62.85-63.55 a barrel due to the lack of important news.
Support and resistance
In the midterm, the oil price is likely to move further down to levels 61.35, 61.00. The long-term forecast is more optimistic. The demand for oil is growing amid the reduction in shale oil extraction and uncertain situation with Iranian negotiations. In the end of July – at the beginning of August, the oil price will be back to $66-67 a barrel.
Support levels: 62.85, 62.45, 62.20, 61.00, 60.50, 60.10, 59.60.
Resistance levels: 63.55, 63.85, 64.50, 64.95, 65.35, 66.25, 67.00.
Trading tips
Place pending buy orders from levels 62.20, 61.35, 61.00 and fix the profit at 66.25, 67.00, 67.70
EUR/USD: general review
Current trend
Yesterday, the pair EUR/USD fell to 1.1112, however, it gained back some of Monday�s losses.
The IMF confirmed that Athens did not process its due debt repayment on Tuesday and therefore are not eligible for new loans. The negotiations of the new financial aid program between Greece and the Eurogroup have failed. Nevertheless, according to the Financial Times, Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras agreed to all conditions of creditor�s trio, which gives some hope for soon crisis end.
Today, data releases are out in the US. Preliminary labor market data from ADT is due. The figure for June is expected to increase from 201 K to 218 K. ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to increase from 52.8 to 53.1.
Should the forecasts match the actual figures, the USD would strengthen. The US economy recovery reassures markets of the interest rates hike later this year.
Support and resistance
Resistance levels: 1.1169, 1.1245 (middle MA of Bollinger Bands), 1.3000 (psychologically important level), 1.1390 (upper MA of Bollinger Bands).
Support levels: 1.1090 (lower Ma of Bollinger Bands), 1.1000 (psychologically important level), 1.0951 (29 June low).
Trading tips
Open short positions after the breakdown of 1.1090 with targets at 1.1000, 1.0950 and stop-loss at 1.1100.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.1175 with targets at 1.1240, 1.3000 and stop-loss at 1.1160.
GBP/USD: general analysis
Current trend
The pound continues to fall against the US dollar. The American currency is strengthening amid the instability in Greece and the upcoming referendum, scheduled this Saturday, when the Greek people will decide on their future. While opinion polls find the majority skeptical, the US dollar price is rising against major world currencies.
The British economy is growing. Thus, in the first quarter, it gained 0.4%, which is 2.9% in annual terms. Country's trade situation improves as well. In May, the export increased by 0.4% (vs. 0.3% forecast). Should Greece remain in the EU and receive the next tranche of financial assistance, the pound is likely to strengthen.
Support and resistance
The nearest resistance level is 1.5625 - Murray 0/8 level.
Support level is 1.5594 - Murray 1/8 level.
Trading tips
Open long positions after the level 1.5625 is broken through with the target at 1.5656 and stop-loss at 1.5600.
EUR/USD: general review
Current trend
Yesterday, the USD fell against all major currencies amid poor labor market data from the US. According to the data release, unemployment level fell by 0.2% to 5.3% and Non-farm Payrolls showed an increase of new jobs of 223 K (forecasted an increase of 230 K). Initial Jobless Claims also rose, to 281 K.
The movement of the pair EUR/USD is going to be insignificant today, as there are no important news in the calendar and it is an official holiday in the US. Investors are likely to remain cautious with the Euro prior to the Greek referendum, due on Sunday.
Support and resistance
The upward movement of the pair stopped after reaching the middle MA of Bollinger Bands, which indicates the possibility of a trend reversal.
The nearest support levels are 1.1031 (yesterday low), 1.0954 (local low).
The nearest resistance levels are 1.1277 (this week high), 1.1400 (psychologically important level).
Trading tips
Open short positions after the breakdown of 1.1030 with the target at 1.0960 and stop-loss at 1.1055.
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of 1.1277 with the target at 1.1340 and stop-loss at 1.1250.
GBP/USD: general review
Current trend
On Friday, the USD recovered all the losses against the basket of major currencies. The referendum in Greece showed that the majority of voters opposed the austerity measures insisted on by international creditors. Thus, the USD probably continues growing in the nearest terms.
Markit Services PMI in the UK, published on Friday, showed a bigger than expected increase and reached 58.5 (forecast 57.4), while previous figure was 56.5.
On Tuesday, NIESR GDP Estimate is due. The index shows the last 3 months GDP growth estimate and is taken into consideration by the government when making monetary policy decisions. The previous figure was 0.6%.
Support and resistance
The nearest resistance level is 1.5626 (MA with 120 period).
Support level: 1.5480 (middle of June support level).
Trading tips
Open short positons from the level of 1.5555 with the target at 1.5480 and stop-loss at 1.5626.
EUR/USD: general analysis
Current trend
On Sunday, Greeks voted against conditions of a rescue package from creditors. The referendum results were announced the same evening. As a consequence, yesterday the European currency opened the trading session with a significant gap down to 1.0994 and lost 100 points, compared to the closing price on Friday. Nevertheless, the euro managed to gain back most of the fall and rise to 1.1056 by the end of Monday. The currency was supported by resignation of the Greek Finance Minister, who noted that this decision would help to reach an agreement with creditors.
In general, the unsolved Greek problem remains the major factor that influences the EUR/USD pair at the moment. The need for financial support pushes the Greek government to reach an agreement with its creditors as soon as possible. Today, during the Euro Summit, Greece is ready to present its new proposals in this regard. Investors' attention will be focused on the final statement of this summit.
Support and resistance
Analysis of the Bollinger Bands on the four-hour chart shows the downward movement to the bottom MA of the indicator.
The downward movement is also proved by Stochastic Oscillator, on which % K line crossed %D line in the direction to the oversold zone.
The nearest support level is 1.0969.
The nearest resistance levels are 1.1277, 1.1400 (psychologically important level).
Trading tips
Open short positions after the level 1.0950 is broken through with the target at 1.0890 and stop loss at 1.0980.
Open long positions after the breakout of the level 1.1277 with the target at 1.1340 and stop-loss at 1.1250.
GBP/USD: general analysis
Current trend
Yesterday, the pound fell against the U.S. dollar to local lows despite some GDP growth (0.7% from 0.6% earlier). The pound is weakening while investors remain cautious on Greece. All 28 EU members meet on Sunday, after the eurozone finance ministers discuss proposals which are submitted by Greece today.
Halifax house price index rose by 1.7%. Moreover, the figure for May was revised up to 0.3% growth. Asset Purchase Facility and Interest Rate Decision are released by the Bank of England today which may strengthen the pound a bit.
If Greece comes up with acceptable proposals today, the dollar significantly weakens against major currencies. Thus, the GBP/USD pair may strengthen to 1.5486 (yesterday’s resistance level). Also, Initial Jobless Claims statistics is released in the U.S. today. The figure is expected to reduce to 275 K from 281 K earlier. These two factors influence the pair today. Which one is stronger? We will see in the evening.
Support and resistance
The nearest resistance level is 1.5486 (yesterday’s resistance level and the level of MA with 110 period).
Support level is 1.5330 (yesterday's low).
Trading tips
Open long positions amid the weakening U.S. dollar from 1.5408 with the target at 1.5486 and stop loss at 1.5330. If, by 3:00 p.m. (GMT + 2) the price is below 1.5400, close the market position.
EUR/USD: general analysis
Current trend
Yesterday, during the first half of the trading session, the euro managed to rise to the level of 1.1124 after it was announces that Greece applied for a three-year bailout program in exchange for economic reforms in the country. There is not much time left, as the agreement is to be reached by the end of next week, at latest. In general, the current uncertainty over the Greek debt still strongly affects the euro, and, as the result, in the second half of the day the price fell to 1.0991, followed by a correction to 1.1035.
Today the Eurogroup President has already received new proposals from Greece. Though any strong statements are unlikely to be made, the news itself undoubtedly supports the euro on Friday.
Moreover, Fed Chairman Janet Yellen delivers a speech on the outlook for the U.S. economy today which may significantly influence the U.S. dollar.
Support and resistance
Histogram MACD is in the negative zone but above its signal line, its volumes are decreasing, thus, indicating the current upward movement.
Stochastic Oscillator shows that the % K line crossed the % D line and left the oversold zone, forming a buy signal.
The nearest resistance levels are 1.1120 1.1243.
The nearest support levels are 1.0954, 1.0920.
Trading tips
Open long positions when the price reaches the level 1.1225 with the target at 1.1185 and stop-loss at 1.1100.
Open short positions are encouraged to consider when the price reaches the level 1.0950 with the target at 1.0890 and stop-loss at 1.0975.
USD/JPY: safe-haven currency Yen
Current trend
Last week, investors were acquiring the Yen as the safe-haven asset amid unresolved Greek problem in the eurozone and the Chinese stock market fall. However, this week as the Chinese stock markets recovered and as there seems to be a progress with the Greek issue, the USD/JPY pair grew.
Fundamental factors, such as planned tightening of the monetary policy by the Fed and the opposite extra soft monetary policy by the Bank of Japan support the pair. Any local strengthening in the pair should be considered as an opportunity to open long positions.
Important news for today include Jobless Claims data from the US, due at 3:30 pm (GMT +3), Fed’s Yellen testifies, NAHB Housing Market index and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey, due at 5 pm (GMT +3).
Support and resistance
The USD/JPY pair reached the support level at 120.50 and returned to the previous month opening at 124.00 after.
Fundamental factors create prerequisites for the further growth towards 125.80 (May high) and, possibly 135.00 (2002 high).
OsMA and Stochastic on the 4-hour and daily charts give buy signals.
Support levels: 120.70, 121.60, 122.35, 122.80, 123.15, 123.50.
Resistance levels: 124.10, 124.50, 125.00.
Trading tips
Open long positions from the current levels and from 122.80, 123.15, 123.50 with targets at 124.10, 124.50, 125.00, 125.50 and stop-loss at 122.50.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 122.35 (with appropriate indicators signals) with targets at 122.00, 121.60, 120.70.
USD/CHF: tendency of USD strengthening
Current trend
Until the Fed is going to keep up with its intentions regarding interest rates increase towards end of this year, the pair USD/CHF continues growing. The pair’s movement is affected by the NB of Switzerland interventions to prevent excessive currency strengthening, which is beneficial to the Swiss economy as inflation in the country is falling. Published on Tuesday, Producer and Import Prices index showed a decrease of 0.1% in June and 6.1% decrease against the last year (forecasted 5.8% decrease). The pair is also supported by the negative interest rates in Switzerland.
Important news for today are due at 3:30 pm (GMT +3) and include Consumer Price index for June and Building Permits for May in the US, and Consumer Price index for June in Canada.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the pair is trading near the strong resistance level of 0.9550, which is also serve as the upper border of the narrow trading channel 0.9550-0.9250. The wider channel remains within 0.9720 and 0.9120.
If rather negative news come out today, the pair may fall below 0.9550. Its short-term targets then become 0.9520, 0.9500 and 0.9430 (ЕМА200 and ЕМА144 on the daily chart).
Indicators signal a short-term correction to the general upward trend. OsMA is falling and stands near the zero line. Stochastic is about to leave the overbought zone. On the daily chart, however, indicators are in the buy zone.
Support levels: 0.9120, 0.9200, 0.9250, 0.9340, 0.9430.
Resistance levels: 0.9600, 0.9720.
Trading tips
Open short positons from the levels of 0.9520, 0.9535, 0.9550 with targets at 0.9500, 0.9430, 0.9340, 0.9245 and stop-loss at 0.9590.
When the price reaches 0.9250-0.9120 range, open long positions (with appropriate indicators signals) with targets at 0.9430, 0.9550, 0.9720, 1.0000, 1.0100.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 0.9100 with targets at 0.9020, 0.8900, 08720.