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Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of GBP/USD GBP/USD, H4 Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, they are both turning downwards once again. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart; current Kumo-cloud is descending. After another correction the pair resumes its movement towards the level of 1.4685. The closest resistance level is Tenkan-sen line (1.4800).
GBP/USD, D1 On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is also below Kijun-sen, however, the blue line is horizontal, while the red one is directed downwards.. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart, current cloud is descending. The closest resistance level is Tenkan-sen line (1.4977). One of the previous minimums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a support level at 1.4640.
Key levels Support levels: 1.4685, 1.4640. Resistance levels: 1.4800, 1.4977. Trading tips On the both charts Bearish trend is still strong. Targets for the short positions are 1.4685 and 1.4640. Anastasiya Glushkova Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
USD/JPY: yen to claw back a part of losses Current trend The American currency carries on appreciating against all major rivals. USD/JPY reached a key resistance level at 121.80 in the first half of this month but failed to break it down. US statistics will be the main drivers of today's currency movements. The US will voice the decision on interest rates; the FED will hold a press conference and FOMC members will release a statement. As for tomorrow, Japan will release overall business activity index and the US - statistics for the labour market. The FED will hardly raise the key interest rate, and another promise won't support the American currency any longer. The demand for dollars is very likely to skid and the yen might claw back losses. Support and resistance In the medium term, the pair might jump back from the local high and key resistance level at 121.90 and rush downwards to support levels at 120.00, 119.50, 118.75, and 118.15. However, it should be noted that the trend remains upward, therefore being carried away with short positions may be risky. In the medium term, the upward movement is likely to continue with a breakdown of the key resistance at 121.90 and testing of new local highs. Support levels: 120.65, 120.00, 119.50, 118.75, 118.15, 117.00. Resistance levels: 121.90, 122.50, 123.00, 123.70. Trading tips Short positions should be placed from the key resistance level and local high at 121.90 with short Stop-Loss and Take-Profit at 120.00, 119.50, 118.75, and 118.15. Long positions with profit fixing at 123.00 and 123.70 will be relevant to downward corrections.
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
NZD/USD: the pair is under correction after yesterday's growth Current trend NZD/USD has been highly volatile his week. Quotes dropped to a level of 0.7274 on Tuesday once the information on an 8.8% decrease in dairy prices was published. However, the price increased sharply on Wednesday having reached a 2-week high at 0.7547. The increase was due to FED's meeting where the outlook for US GDP growth for a few next years was downgraded. Thus, it may amount to 2,3%-2,7% instead of 2,5%-3,0% in 2015-2016. Besides, the NZ currency was supported with positive data on NZ GDP over the fourth quarter 2014. The month-on-month and year-on-year increase amounted to 0,8% and 3.5%, respectively, which was better than expected. Support and resistance From technical point of view, the pair is trading within an upward channel. The price has reached its upper border and started a correction that is going on at the present time. A level of 0.7380 (middle line of Bollinger bands) seems to be bears' key target. Once it's broken down, the price may drop to the lower border of the channel to about 0.7325-0.7300. If not, a level of 0.7600 may become bulls' new goal. The rest of indicators are producing opposite signals. The MACD histogram is in the negative zone and its volumes are stable. Stochastic lines reversed downwards. Support levels: 0.7380, 0.7325, 0.7300. Resistance levels: 0.7450, 0.7547, 0.7600. Trading tips Short positions with a target of 0.7300 should be opened in case the price breaks a level of 0.7380. Long positions may be opened after the price breaks a level of 0.7450. The first target of such positions would be a level of 0.7547, the second target — 0.7600.
Dmitriy Zolotov Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
Brent: general overview Current trend As expected, Brent crude oil dropped yesterday to about 54.00 due to a technical correction, but failed either to consolidate below or push off from this level. For want of important macroeconomic releases market participants have not been active and the market has been quite calm. At the same time, many analysts think that the growth of oil prices won't last long. The increase in US oil stocks and the high oil production rate in OPEC countries cannot but affect oil quotes. Support and resistance On the H4 chart, technical indicators suggest that the downward movement will continue. The MACD histogram is located in the negative zone and its volumes are increasing, pointing to a further downward movement. Bollinger bands are diverging, reflecting the power of the uptrend. Resistance levels: 55.00, 56.00, 57.00, 58.00. Support levels: 54.00, 53.00, 52.00, 51.00. Trading tips Open short positions at current price with the nearest target at 53.00. When the level of 53.00 is broken down, Brent may drop to 52.00. The consolidation of the price above 55.00 will hint at a formation of an upward movement. If so, buyers' next target will be a level of 56.00.
Vadim Smarzh Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of EUR/USD EUR/USD, H4 Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, they are both directed upwards. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart; current cloud is ascending. The pair has broken through the cloud and is still rising. The closest support level is the upper border of the cloud (1.0789). One of the previous maximums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a resistance level at 1.0430.
EUR/USD, D1 On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, they are both horizontal. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart; current cloud is descending. After long fall the pair has been corrected above Tenakn-sen line, which is now a support level (1.0738). The closest resistance level is Kijun-sen line at 1.0959.
Key levels Support levels: 1.0789, 1.0738. Resistance levels: 1.1030, 1.0959. Trading tips On the four-hour chart we’ve got a signal to buy, however, on the daily one Bearish trend is still strong. Long trades can be opened at current price with targets at 1.0959 and 1.1030. Anastasiya Glushkova Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
XAU/USD: general review Current trend Gold quotes continue to rise slowly as Fed failed to provide information on the dates of an interest rate rise at the latest meeting. An important resistance level is at 1200.00 and coincides with M200 moving average. If the price consolidates above it, it may continue to grow to 1250.00-1265.00. On the whole, as many experts believe, gold remains a perfect asset for increasing money due to low interest rates worldwide. If Asian economies carry on growing, the demand for gold will continue to increase and the price may reach a level of $2000.00 per troy ounce in the next few years. The second factor that could lead to the appreciation of gold in the long term is central banks' desire for buying up the precious metal. Seventy-five tons of gold per year approximately has been bought up in recent years. It's also worth noting that the gold trading centre may move to China. Not all international investors may participate in gold trading due to local restrictions, but experts think that their cancellation is only a matter of time. Support and resistance The nearest resistance level is still at 1195.15 – 1/8 (1/8 Murray) The nearest support level is at 1187.50 (8/8 Murray) Trading tips Go long after a level of 1195.15 is broken and place protective orders near a level of 1187.00 with a target at 1245.00.
Dmitriy Agurbash Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
EUR/USD: analysis and forecast Current trend EUR/USD clawed back a part of lost positions after yesterday's fall. The dollar was supported on Tuesday after publication of statistics for US inflation. Core consumer price index grew by 1.7% year-on-year and by 0.2% month-on-month. Both indexes were higher than expected. Today, market participants are waiting for February's data on US durable goods orders that are forecast to decrease. Support and resistance Technical indicators are pointing to the end of a correctional upward movement on the H4 chart. Bollinger bands are diverging, confirming the continuation of a downward movement. The MACD histogram is located in the positive zone, but its volumes are reducing, pointing to sellers' growing influence. The resistance levels are: 1.0975, 1.1030, 1.1085, and 1.1140. Support levels: 1.0890, 1.0855, 1.0810, 1.0765. Trading tips The price is very likely to drop soon to a level of 1.0890, the moving average of Bollinger bands. If the level of 1.0890 is firmly broken, sellers will attempt to assault a level of 1.0855. In case of consolidation below the latter, the price may continue falling to 1.0810 and 1.0765.
Vadim Smarzh Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
AUD/USD: potential for growth exists Current trend AUD/USD has continued to trade within a wide upward channel this week. Today, quotes have reached its lower border and then started to rally again. The price is currently located near the middle line of Bollinger bands coinciding with a level of 0.7855. The bands themselves are narrowing as it happens ahead of a serious price jump. Market participants are not likely to risk before tomorrow's publication of final statistics for US GDP over the last year. The US economy is expected to register a slight growth of 2.4%, which may put pressure on the dollar. Support and resistance Technical indicators are pointing to an upcoming price growth. Bollinger Bands are directed upwards. The MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes are stable. Stochastic lines reversed upwards. Support levels: 0.7855, 0.7800 0.7710. Resistance levels: 0.7915, 0.7950. Trading tips Long positions with a target at 0.7915 and 0.7950 opened at current price seem relevant to the situation. Short positions can be opened in case the price drops below 0.7855. Their target would be a level of 0.7800.
Dmitriy Zolotov Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
GBP/USD: waiting for publication of US GDP Current trend This week, GBP/USD quotes have tested a resistance level of 1.4980 a couple of times, but failed to break it down. The latest attempt was made on Thursday after publication of positive statistics for UK retail sales. The index registered a 5.1% year-on-year increase and 0.7% month-on-month increase, with both values exceeding forecasts. However, it should be noted that the increase in sales is due to the fuel sector whose prices have seriously decreased lately. The positive effect did not last long, and the pair had lost points by the end of the day. Publication of final statistics for US GDP over the last year will be today's most important release. The indicator is expected to amount to 2.4% in fourth quarter, which is worse than the value of the third quarter when GDP showed a 5.0% increase. The increase will not be unexpected news for market participants, though, as preliminary information had hinted at it twice. On the whole, if the forecast proves to be correct, the American currency may be under slight pressure and the quotes may drop to 1.4980 again. But if US GDP exceeds forecasts, the price has all chances to fall to the levels 1.4800, 1.4725 and, probably, 1.4670. Support and resistance Technically, the price is located near the middle line of Bollinger bands, failing either to overcome it or drop below. The MACD histogram is not producing clear signals either, as it's located near the zero line and its volumes are insignificant. Only Stochastic lines have turned upwards, producing a signal to buy. Support levels: 1.5210, 1.5155. Resistance levels: 1.5275, 1.5335. Trading tips Long positions should be opened with profit fixing at about 1.4980 if the price consolidates above 1.4880. Short positions should be relevant once the price breaks down the level of 1.4880 and drops to 1.4830. Their target would be the level of 1.4725.
Dmitriy Zolotov Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
EUR/USD: the euro rallies on investors' interest Current trend Last week, Germany published strong data on key indexes that supported the European currency, and EUR/USD reached the key resistance level and local high at 1.1000. At the end of the last trading week, the American currency re-appreciated against the Euro against a backdrop of positive statistics for US labour market and weak data on the eurozone's loan sector. The pair is slowly falling today, currently trading at 1.0830. The publication of consumer price indexes for Germany and the eurozone is worth attention today as the indexes are expected to grow. In its turn, the USA will publish data on personal spending and core price index. Positive statistics from the eurozone will increase investors' demand. But the Greek issue remains the key growth catalyst of the EUR/USD: if a new loan agreement is reached in the shortest time, the Euro may start growing in price. Support and resistance In the medium term, the pair is expected to rise to a level of 1.1000. Breakdown of the local low will provide a way to the levels of 1.1110 and 1.1245. If US statistics turn out to be upbeat, the pair will consolidate in the sideward range of 1.0800-1.1000. However, the trend is still downward; therefore long positions should be opened carefully with Stop Loss below 1.0770. Support levels: 1.0800, 1.0770, 1.0680, 1.0615, 1.0550, 1.0460. Resistance levels: 1.0900, 1.0950, 1.1015, 1.1050, 1.1110, 1.1245. Trading tips With an eye to appreciation of the oversold euro, long positions should be opened with a short Stop Loss and profit fixing at 1.1110 and 1.1245.
Dmitriy Likhachev Analyst at LiteForex Investments Limited