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GBP/USD: analysis and forecast Current trend The GBP/USD refreshed local highs at about 1.5550 yesterday morning but failed to hold at that level and moved downwards straight away. The US consumer price index released yesterday raised the demand for the American currency and the pair dropped to a level of 1.5400. Statistics for US GDP are worth attention today as they can affect the pair. The forecasts are quite downbeat, and the GBP has all chances to claw back losses. The GBP/USD is currently trading at 1.5400. If the bears manage to consolidate below, the pair is very likely to refresh lows at about 1.5300. The pair continues to trade within an uptrend and is located near the lower limit of the channel, whose breakdown will be a cue for a trend reversal. Technically, the readings of the indicators are different. MACD is in the positive zone, but the signal line is directed downwards, and the histogram is about to move to the negative zone, while Stochastic is in the oversold zone and produces a strong signal to buy. Support and resistance The resistance levels are 1.5420, 1.5440, 1.5465, 1.5500. Bulls' main target is to get back above 1.5450. The support levels are 1.5385, 1.5350, 1.5315. Trading tips Sell below 1.5385 and buy above 1.5450. Place Limit Buy orders at 1.5390.
Ilya Lashenko Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
Brent: general analysis Current trend Brent crude oil quotes rose above a level of 62.00 on Friday, reaching a maximum at 62.66 due to the fears that gas supplies from Russia to the European Union would be hampered. The situation had been caused with Ukraine failing to pay its fuel bill, while being the main gas transit country. A meeting between Russia and the EU concerning the issue is to take place today. Another factor that influenced Brent price was news from Norway. The Statoil Company had suspended operation of its Statfjord C platform in the North Sea after having discovered cracks in the flare tower. More than 81 000 bbl of oil were produced in this oilfield last year. Support and resistance Resistance levels: 62.66 (Friday’s maximum), 63.60 (upper line of Bollinger bands), 65.00 (important psychological level), 66.87 (maximum of 12th December 2014). Support levels: 61.65 (minimum of the Asian session), 60.39 (Friday's minimum), 59.10 (middle line of Bollinger Bands), 57.68 (minimum of 19th February 2015). Trading tips If the current trend continues, opening short positions will be relevant from the level of 60.60 with the nearest target at about 60.40 and second target at 59.10. In case of a firm breakdown of the level 62.70, Brent will have a way to the levels 63.60 and 65.00.
Andrey Cherkas Analyst at LiteForex Investments Limited
EUR/USD: the overbought dollar is losing investors' support Current trend The European currency weakened substantially against the dollar in the middle of the previous week. The euro came under pressure owing to weak macroeconomic data on the eurozone's key economic sectors and a growing demand for dollars ahead of a probable interest rate rise. The EUR/USD fell below the key support of 1.1285, almost reaching a recent low at 1.1100. In spite of the drop of the eurozone's unemployment rate, the pair continues to fluctuate inertly at about 1.1100. It's worth noting that a number of important statistics for the USA and the eurozone will be released this week. Besides, ECB Head Mario Draghi's statement scheduled for Thursday may raise demand for the European currency. Support and resistance In the medium term, the pair may drop to a local low at 1.1100 whose breakdown is hardly possible. The unexplainable demand for the dollar and weak macroeconomic statistics for all US economic sectors show that the overbought dollar will lose ground soon. An upward correction movement may reach the levels of 1.1285 and 1.1385. But remember that the trend is still downward and you should place Stop Loss orders when opening long positions. Once the correction is completed, an increase in short positions will be relevant again. Support levels: 1.1170, 1.1100, 1.1050, 1.1000. Resistance levels: 1.1225, 1.1285, 1.1385, 1.1410, 1.1450, 1.1530. Trading tips We recommend opening long positions at current price and from the level of 1.1100 with a short Stop Loss and Take Profit at 1.1285 and 1.1386. Once the key resistance levels at 1.1385, 1.1450, and 1.1530 are reached, the volume of short positions may be increased.
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
USD/JPY: Investors waiting for fundamental news Current trend The USD/JPY grew at the beginning of the week reaching a 3-week high at 120.26. However, by Wednesday the pair had lost some positions and the price is currently located at 119.60. The quotes are likely to remain within a range of 119.35-119.70 as market participants are waiting for fundamental news of the week: ECB President Mario Draghi's statement and publication of February's economic statistics for the US labour market. It's worth noting that the pair has been long testing a resistance level of 120.00 but can't hold above. In the meanwhile, the Bank of Japan refrains from further stimulation measures fearing that the economy will overheat. The market therefore has no incentives for overcoming this barrier. Support and resistance Technically, the price has dropped below the middle line of the Bollinger bands, which will probably allow the pair to decline further to a level of 119.35. At the same time, a breakdown of the level 119.70 may lead to a slight growth to a level of 120.10. Technical indicators are producing opposite signals. Bollinger bands have started to narrow. The MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes are decreasing. Stochastic lines reversed upwards. Support levels: 119.35, 118.95, 118.50. Resistance levels: 119.70, 120.10. Trading tips This situation rather implies short positions that can be opened at current price with the target at 119.35. Long positions with a target of 120.10 should be opened in case the price breaks down a level of 119.70.
Dmitriy Zolotov Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
GBP/USD: Fundamental catalysts to define further trend Current trend All major currencies, including the pound, were under pressure on Wednesday owing to the dollar strengthening against a backdrop of US upbeat statistics. Besides, UK service sector PMI dropped to 56.7 despite positive forecasts of 57.6. Today, the pair has reached a level of 1.5225 and then has slightly corrected upwards. The Bank of England's decision on interest rates and volumes of the bond purchase program along with Mark Carney's statement are worth attention out of today's all fundamental releases. Eurozone key statistics will be released later on. Should they be weak, the dollar will have additional support. Finally, the USA will publish the Non Farm Productivity index. It is hard to define a further movement when almost all depends on fundamental catalysts, but remember that the trend reversal was not successful, and the downtrend prevails at the moment. Bank of England's decision on interest rates will hardly affect the pair substantially, but Carney's statement could either strengthen the pound or put extra pressure on it. However, US statistics can define a further trend and provoke high volatility. If today's data proves to be upbeat, the dollar will strengthen significantly. Support and resistance In the medium term, wait for the US currency to strengthen and the GBP/USD to drop to key support levels at 1.5180, 1.5100. A low at 1.4950 last seen at the end of January can be tested in the long term, Support levels: 1.5225, 1.5200, 1.5180, 1.5100, 1.5060, 1.5035, 1.5010, 1.4950. Resistance levels: 1.5275, 1.5350, 1.5375, 1.5430, 1.5500, 1.5550, 1.5600. Trading tips Open short positions from the key resistance levels 1.5275, 1.5300, 1.5375 with profit fixing at 1.5100-1.4950.
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
GBP/USD: analysis and forecast Current trend GBP/USD reached this month's lowest value on Friday, having dropped to a value of 1.5031. The pound weakened owing to the strengthening of the US dollar. Data on non-farm payrolls turned out to be better than expected, demonstrating an increase in new jobs by 295 thousand against a forecast of 241 thousand and the previous value of 239 thousand. The unemployment rate decreased by 0.2% and amounted to 5.5%, which is better than a forecast of 5.6%. Last Thursday, the Bank of England kept interest rates at the same record low level of 0.5% set in March 2009. The Central Bank also kept the asset purchase program volumes unchanged, at a level of 375 billion pounds. This week, the pound will be influenced by statistics for manufacturing and industrial production volumes in the UK. The outlook for these 2 indexes are quite upbeat and the British currency will be able to recover slightly. Support and resistance Resistance levels: 1.5100 (lower line of Bollinger bands), 1.5200 (important psychological level), 1.5226 (6th March's maximum) 1.5345 (middle line of Bollinger bands), 1.5461 (27th February's maximum). Support levels are local lows at 1.5031, 1.4952, 1.4900 and 1.4850. Trading tips Buy after a level of 1.5100 is broken with the first target at 1.5200 and second target at 1.5256. Sell from a level of 1.5030 with targets at 1.4950 and 1.4900.
Andrey Cherkas Analyst at LiteForex Investments Limited
Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of EUR/USD EUR/USD, H4 Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, they are both horizontal. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart; current cloud is descending. The pair is trading within the downward trend and is moving towards the level of 1.7015. The closest resistance level is Tenkan-sen line (1.0820).
EUR/USD, D1 On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is also below Kijun-sen, however, both lines are directed steeply down, reflecting the strength of the trend. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart; current cloud is descending. The closest resistance level is Tenkan-sen line (1.1056). One of the previous minimums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a support level at 1.0700.
Key levels Support levels: 1.0715, 1.0700. Resistance levels: 1.0820, 1.1056. Trading tips On the both charts Bearish trend is still strong and the pair continues to fall. Targets for the short positions are 1.0715 and 1.0700. Anastasiya Glushkova Analyst at LiteForex Investments Limited
AUD/USD: key level at 0.7600 Current trend AUD/USD quotes have been dropping since Friday when strong statistics for the US labour market were published. The NFPR indicator exceeded forecasts substantially. The Australian dollar is also badly affected by the problems of Australia's important trading partner - China. The Chinese industrial production index has dropped to a record low at 6.8% since 2009. No important economic statistics for the pair are expected today. February's data on the Australian labour market will be published on Thursday. The unemployment rate is supposed to drop to 6.3%, whereas the employment rate will grow by 15 thousand. The realization of these forecasts will slightly correct the pair, but the downward trend will continue. Support and resistance The pair is currently testing a level of 0.7600 and fails to break it down. This level seems to be key and its breakdown will enable the pair to continue declining to a level of 0.7530. The pair might also correct to a level of 0.7675 (middle line of Bollinger bands). Technical indicators are mostly neutral. Stochastic lines are switching to a horizontal movement. The MACD histogram is in the negative zone and its volumes are stable. Only Bollinger bands are directed downwards, confirming the downtrend. Support levels: 0.7600, 0.7530. Resistance levels: 0.7635, 0.7675. Trading tips Open short positions with a target at 0.7530 after the price has broken down the level of 0.7600. Long positions will be relevant if the price rises above 0.7635, their target would be the level of 0.7675.
Dmitriy Zolotov Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
USD/JPY: upward trend is still strong Current trend This week the pair USD/JPY was testing the level of 122.00, but couldn't overcome it. Today the pair is being corrected due to the positive stats on Japanese indices: Consumer Confidence increased by 1,6 points, exceeding forecasts, while Tertiary Industry Activity index reached the peak since March 2014. Today investors are waiting for the February Retail Sales release in USA. The indicator is expected to increase and support national currency. Support and resistance From the technical point of view the price has broken down middle MA of Bollinger Bands and is moving towards the lower MA. The closest target for the Bears is 120.75. This is also a possible pivot point; the pair can reverse and go up to the levels of 121.30 and 122.00, especially if US stats are positive. Other indicators give signals to sell. MACD histogram is in positive zone, but its volumes are decreasing. Stochastic lines are directed downwards. Support levels: 120.75, 120.50. Resistance levels: 121.30, 122.00. Trading tips Short-term sell trades can be opened at current price with targets within the range of 120.75-120.50. Pending buy orders should be placed at 120.75 with take-profits at 121.30 and 122.00.
Dmitriy Zolotov Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
EUR/USD: general overview Current trend EUR/USD regained ground yesterday after a protracted fall. The greenback was under pressure due to US downbeat data. The volume of retail sales reduced by 0.6% instead of growing by 0.5%, as expected. Negative sales dynamics have lasted for 3 months in a row. Last assessment period showed a 0.8% decrease. Analysts are linking the depressive statistics to a longer winter season in the northern states which holds back business activity. However, EUR/USD failed to really claw back previous losses as the euro is weak due to the ECB's current QE program. Support and resistance Resistance levels: 1,0682 (yesterday's maximum), 1.0750 (consolidation zone on 10th March), 1.0800 (important psychological level), 1.1855 (10th March's maximum). Support levels: 1.0564 (minimum of the Asian session), 1.0494 (yesterday's minimum), 1.0431 (minimum recorded in August 1997). Trading tips Go short after a level of 1.0560 has been broken down. Short-term target - 1.0500, main target - 1.0431. Buy from a level of 1.0690 with targets at 1.0750 and 1.0800.
Andrey Cherkas Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited