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EUR/USD: general analysis Current trend The single European currency is still trading downwards. Last Friday, the important support level 1.2246 was broken and bears' next target is 1.2150. Standards and Poor’s agency's decision to lower its rating down to “BBB-“ for 2 largest Italian banks Unicredit and Intesa Sanpaolo is putting pressure on the currency. The rating was revised given some problem assets accumulated by the banks, the Agency said. However, bankruptcy seems hardly possible as the government is unlikely to allow such large credit institutions to crash. France's week economy, where business confidence index remained at the same level of 94 points despite a forecast of 96 points, is another factor that sends the euro to the bottom. Besides, the high unemployment rate of 10% badly affects consumer activity and economic growth. The French Government announced repeatedly about its plan of creating new jobs at its own expense, but this policy may increase the public debt and be rejected by the EU authorities. The US housing sales data and EU consumer confidence index will be published today. Real estate sales are expected to fall to 5.21 million. Consumer confidence may decline to the level of -11. Support and resistance The last December low of 1.2246 is the nearest resistance level. A psychologically important level of 1.2200 serves as support. Trading tips Short positions may be opened with the target at 1.2150 and protective order at 1.2246 after the price breaks the level of 1.2200.
Dmitry Agurbash Analysts of LiteForex Investments Limited
AUD/USD: quotes will go on declining Current trend The AUD/USD started the week with a new decline of quotes following a fall in commodity prices, including oil ones. Today, the price has reached the minimum of 0.8088 last recorded in May 2010, but it is currently correcting to the level of 0.8150 (middle line of the Bollinger bands indicator). US key statistics that will be released today are the last before Christmas. US final GDP is expected to exceed preliminary values and amount to 4.1% in third quarter 2014, durable goods orders will grow. This reading may increase up to 3% in November, which will be the most significant increase since July. If expert forecasts prove to be correct, the American currency may substantially increase against the main rivals. Support and resistance From technical point of view, the pair is still trading within a downward channel. The price is currently tending to the level of 0.8150 that coincides with the middle line of the Bollinger bands indicator and the upper border of the downward channel. A reversal may occur at this level giving birth to a new downward movement to the levels 0.8105 and 0.8050. Technical indicators are pointing to a temporary continuation of the uptrend. The MACD histogram is in the negative zone and its volumes are decreasing. Stochastic lines have crossed each other and are moving upwards. Support levels: 0.8105, 0.8050. Resistance levels: 0.8150, 0.8200. Trading tips This situation suggests that short-term long positions targeting at 0.8150 can be opened at current price. Pending sell orders should be placed at about 0.8150. Fix profits at 0.8105.
Dmitriy Zolotov Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
GBP/USD: USD continues to grow Current trend The pair GBP/USD continues to move in the downward channel. Yesterday the pair tested new support level of 1.5485. At the same time, the American currency is growing versus the major currencies due to the growth of the US GDP in Q3. This index has grown up to 5%, which exceeded all expectations. Nevertheless, many investors believe that the American currency is overbought, which is the first sign of a chance of trend reversal. On the other hand, the pair GBP/USD has reached strong local lows, which will not be easy to overcome. Starting from today and till the end of the trading week the pair is unlikely to undergo high volatility. Great Britain and the USA are preparing for Christmas celebration, so important statistics will not be published. Support and resistance It is likely that the pair will fall to the level of 1.5425 (local lows of August 2013). After that the pair may go down to a strong support level of 1.5275; after that the trend may change. Support levels: 1.5485, 1.5470, 1.5425, 1.5350 and 1.5275. Resistance levels: 1.5550, 1.5600, 1.5630, 1.5700, 1.5735 and 1.5800. Trading tips It is recommended to open pending positions on trend from the levels of 1.5630, 1.5700 and take profit at 1.5425 (1.5275). It is also advisable to place pending buy orders at the key support level of 1.5275 in the hope to catch the moment of trend reversal and in such case it is necessary to place short stop-loss and take profit at the distance of 500-600 points.
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
EUR/USD: the pair moved to sideways channel Current trend The market has been calm and quiet today. Fundamental data is making almost no impact on currency rates as Europe and the USA are celebrating Christmas. From technical point of view, the EUR/USD is trading within a narrow range of 1.2226-1.2160. The price dropped behind the middle line of the Bollinger bands indicator at 1.2212 and resumed a downward movement. The bulls are probably targeted at the level of 1.2160, as its breakdown will allow the pair to drop further to the level of 1.2100. Support and resistance Technical indicators are not producing any clear signals, showing that the market is calm. Bollinger bands are switching to a sideways movement. The MACD histogram is in the negative zone and its volumes become stable. Stochastic lines are also directed sideways. Support levels: 1.2160, 1.2100. Resistance levels: 1.2212, 1.2270. Trading tips Short-term short positions with a target at 1.2160 opened at current price seem relevant to the situation. Pending buy orders should be placed at about 1.2160. Fix profits at 1.2212.
Dmitriy Zolotov Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
GBP/USD: the pair will continue to trade in the downward channel Current trend There is the lull in the market during New Year holidays. Due to lack of the macro-economic news, the pair GBP/USD is under influence of the trading sentiments. It is worth noting that despite the fact that the USD is significantly overbought, the demand on the American currency remains high. On Monday the pair slowly went down to the level of 1.5500; nevertheless this morning the Pound has won back some of the losses. The US news, which will be released today, will include consumer confidence index and house price index. Support and resistance This morning demand for the Pound had grown and the pair went up. However, it looks more like the upward correction. British economy remains weak and there are no grounds for soon recovery. The American currency will continue to rise in price. In the medium-term target level can be at 1.5470. After reaching the bottom limit of the channel, the pair can undergo reversal and go to 1.5630. Support levels: 1.5485, 1.5470, 1.5425, 1.5350 and 1.5275. Resistance levels: 1.5550, 1.5600, 1.5630, 1.5700, 1.5735 and 1.5800. Trading tips In the current situation it makes sense to trade on trend, opening short positions from the levels of 1.5630 and 1.5700 with take profit at the level of 1.5470.
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
GBP/USD: general analysis Current trend On Tuesday the pair GBP/USD has slightly grown due to technical correction. However, the USD is still supported by the data on the US GDP, which has grown by 5% versus expectations of 4.3%. Volatility is not expected to be high this week; however, the data on business activity in the manufacturing sector of the UK, which is scheduled for the release on Friday, can trigger the rise in the British currency. Today, the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the USA will be released. However, this index has already reached the record low. Support and resistance The nearest resistance level is the lows of last Friday at the level of 1.5586. Support level is at the moving average with the period 50 and the drift of 10 (1.5528). Trading tips It is recommended to open short positions with the target of 1.5505 and protective order of 1.5586. http://www.liteforex.com/uploads/other/af2d1b90e5e14154a14cb98e16ee0161.jpeg"> Dmitriy Agurbash Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of EUR/USD EUR/USD, H4 Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, they are both horizontal. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart; current cloud is descending. Despite the correction, the pair wasn’t able to break through the resistance level of Kijun-sen (1.1861). One of the previous minimums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a support level (1.1745).
EUR/USD, D1 Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, they are both horizontal. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart; current cloud is descending. Despite the correction, the pair wasn’t able to break through the resistance level of Kijun-sen (1.1861). One of the previous minimums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a support level (1.1745).
Key levels Support levels: 1.1745, 1.1725. Resistance levels: 1.1861, 1.1970. Key levels On the both charts downward trend is still strong. Targets for the sell positions are 1.1745 and 1.1725. Anastasiya Glushkova Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
USD/JPY: analysis and forecast Current trend The current trading session started with a jerk when the USD/JPY tried to consolidate above a level of 119.00. But then the pair slumped after the opening of the American session. Today, the pair managed to drop below a level of 118.00, but promptly moved back and is trading at about 118.40. The economic calendar suggests that the day will be calm and the pair is likely to be trading within a range of 18.00-119.00. The US retail sales index and consumer price index will be published on Thursday and Friday, respectively. The forecasts for both indexes are quite gloomy, which can drop the pair below a level of 118.00. From technical point of view, the pair has a good chance of growing. Stochastic is in the oversold zone and produces a strong signal to buy. MACD is in the negative zone, but if the volumes start decreasing and the signal line reaches beyond the limits of the histogram and moves upwards, there will be a signal to buy. Support and resistance The nearest resistance level is at 118.65 coinciding with 50% Fibonacci retracement. The following levels: 119.00, 119.30, 119.75. Support levels are at 118.05 and 117.75. Trading tips Buy above 118.65 and 119.30 with a target at 119.75. Short positions should be opened in case the price consolidates below the level of 119.70 with the nearest target at 117.90.
Ilya Lashenko Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
GBP/USD: general overview Current trend Yesterday, trading GBP/USD was characterized by multidirectional dynamics. Before noon, the pair fell against a backdrop of UK negative statistics. According to that information, the consumer price index declined to 0.5% against a previous value of 1% in December. Then the pound managed to win back lost positions promptly, market participants fixed profits, and the rate reversed upwards. Support and resistance The MACD histogram is in the negative zone on a H4 chart, its volume are gradually decreasing. Bollinger bands are directed upwards signalling the continuation of the current upward dynamics. Support levels: 1.5140, 1.5075, 1.5030. Resistance levels: 1.5220, 1.5275, 1.5320. Trading tips Go long after a level of 1.5220 has been broken. Bulls' next target will be a level of 1.5275. In case the pair consolidates below 1.5140, open short positions with the nearest target at about 1.5075.
Vadim Smarzh Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited
Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of USD/CAD USD/CAD, H4 Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, they are both horizontal. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart; current Kumo-cloud is ascending. The pair is consolidating between the red line and the blue one, which become resistance (1.1972) and support (1.1911) levels respectively.
USD/CAD, D1 On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is also above Kijun-sen, although the red line is directed upwards, while the blue one remains horizontal. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart; current Kumo-cloud is ascending. The closest support level is Tenkan-sen line at 1.1873. One of the previous maximums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a resistance level at 1.2050.
Key levels Support levels: 1.1911, 1.1873. Resistance levels: 1.1972, 1.2050. Trading tips Despite a correction Bullish trend is still strong. Target for the buy positions will be at 1.2050. Anastasiya Glushkova Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited