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EUR/USD: upward impetus has no more power Current trend This Thursday the pair EUR/USD was strengthening thanks to the growing demand for Euro. Macroeconomic forecasts for Germany didn’t prove accurate, unemployment claims increased once again. Although German CPI gave Euro some support, the index has risen by 0.2%, exceeding forecasts by 0.1%. European currency is still strengthening, though upward impetus is going to die soon. After recent crisis in Eurozone residents prefer no tot spend, but to keep money in banks. So EU faces new problem — deflation. To boost up demand ECB is going to lower interest rate to the negative level. European countries are also concerned about high course of Euro that makes it harder to recover economic system. Today investors’ attention is drawn to the inflation rate and CPI publication in Eurozone. If consumer prices index continues to decrease, the government will most probably prolong soft monetary policy and lower interest rate to the negative level. In USA huge sales start this week, these days American spend a lot and give Dollar support. Support and resistance /b] After considerable growth the pair will be corrected and then again go up. In middle-term prospect American currency will be strengthening due to the positive statistics and QE3 program curtailment. The pair EUR/USD will be trading within a range of 1.3620-1.3500 and then fall down to the level of 1.3300, if fundamental data are negative. Support levels: 1.3560, 1.3500, 1.3420. Resistance levels: 1.3620, 1.3700, 1.3830. Trading tips It is recommended to open sell orders with targets within the range of 1.3520-1.3400.
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
USD/JPY: general analysis Current trend On Thursday the pair went up reaching six-month highs at the level of 102.37. Today the Yen continued to lose positions against the American dollar. The rise in the pair USD/JPY is supported by the talk that the Bank of Japan is going to soften monetary policy. Another fact that put pressure on the Japanese currency is the increase of volume of foreign bonds redemption by residents of Japan. Last week the amount reached 1405.6 billion yen, which was by 351.5 billion yen higher than the previous value. Support and resistance The nearest resistance level on the daily chart is 102.58 (highs of 24 May). Next resistance line is psychologically important level of 103.00. The target of the “bulls” is the local highs of 103.73. Support level is the local highs of 101.93 and 101.14. Trading tips MACD histogram is in the positive zone above the signal line indicating strong uptrend. Stochastic is in the overbought zone. Breakdown of the level of 102.58 will open the way to the level of 103.73 for the “bulls’. It is advisable to place sell orders in case of decline in price below 101.93 with the target of 101.14.
Andrey Cherkas Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
GBP/USD: the Pound is growing Current trend Despite negative British macro-statistics, the pair GBP/USD was steadily growing last week, breaking down important resistance levels. It became known that British consumer confidence index fell to the level of –12 points; mortgage lending level was below the forecast of 68.6 points, declining to 67.7 points. Despite economic problems in EU, demand for the Pound continues to increase because investors do not feel confidence to the USD. Business activity indices in the manufacturing sectors of the UK and US are scheduled for the release today. It is also expected that the head of the US Fed Ben Bernanke will give a speech today. It is assumed that British PMI will increase, which will trigger the rise in the Pound. Support and resistance In the medium term ascending movement can reach the key resistance level of 1.6600. Do not forget that following long-term growth, the pair will inevitably experience correction. Support levels: 1.6300, 1.6260 and 1.6200. Resistance levels: 1.6450 and 1.6600. Trading tips In the current situation it is advisable to place buy orders with profit taking at the level of 1.6600. In view of possible downward correction it makes sense to place pending buy orders at the levels of 1.6300 and 1.6270 with profit taking at the level of 1.6600.
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of AUD/USD AUD/USD, H4 Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, the red line is going to cross the blue one from above, forming Golden Cross pattern. Chinkou Span line is crossing the price chart from below; current cloud is descending. After long fall the pair has been corrected above Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines, the latter becomes a support level at 0.9129. The next obstacle for the price will be the lower border of the cloud at 0.9221.
AUD/USD, D1 On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is also below Kijun-sen, but they are both horizontal. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart from below; the cloud has reversed from ascending to descending. The price has broken through the cloud and is still falling. The closest resistance level is Tenkan-sen line at 0.9267. One of the previous minimums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a support level at 0.8900.
Key levels Support levels: 0.9146, 0.9267. Resistance levels: 0.9000, 0.8900. Trading tips On the four-hour chart we can see a slowdown of the fall, although daily chart confirms Bearish trend. Targets for the short positions are around 0.9000. Anastasiya Glushkova Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
Weekly analytical video review for currency pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY 2-6 Dec 2013
Weekly analytical video review for instruments EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY based on fundamental analysis and technical indicators (MACD, Stochastic, Bollinger Bands). Daily reviews and forecast are available at LiteForex site Forex Trading : Top Forex Broker : LiteForex
Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of USD/CAD USD/CAD, H4 On the four-hour chart Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, they are both horizontal. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart; current cloud is ascending. The closest support level is Tenkan-sen line at 1.0633. One of the previous maximums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a resistance level at 1.0670.
USD/CAD, H4, D1 At the daily chart we can see a similar situation. Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, the red line is directed upwards, while the blue one is moving sideways. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart; current cloud is ascending. The closest support level is Tenkan-sen line at 1.0549. One of the previous maximums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a resistance level at 1.0700.
Key levels Support levels: 1.0633, 1.0549. Resistance levels: 1.0670, 1.0700. Trading tips On the both charts Ichimoku lines indicate the continuation of the upward movement. The targets for the long positions are 1.0670 and 1.0700. Anastasiya Glushkova Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
EUR/USD: general analysis Current trend On the first Monday of December the pair EUR/USD corrected to the level of 38.2% Fibonacci (1.3536), but failed to break down this level. The USD was supported by favourable US statistics: business activity index in the US manufacturing sector was above forecast and previous level; spending on construction has also increased. Today the pair is trading upward near the level of 1.3550; however, later, European currency can slightly weaken amid the decline in the EU producer price index. Tomorrow, US news block will be released, which can trigger the rise in the US currency and the decline in Euro against the USD. Technically, further correction is possible up to the level of 50.0% Fibonacci (1.3509), which is nearing the bottom limit of the channel. Histogram of MACD indicator is in the negative zone, the signal line is preparing to cross the zero line from top to bottom, forming a sell signal. Support and resistance The pair will receive support from the level of 1.3536. Yesterday the pair failed to consolidate below this level. Resistance levels: 1.3569 and 1.3578, which are located near moving average of “Bollinger bands”. If this level is exceeded, next resistance level will be at the local highs of 1.3621. Trading tips As a trading strategy I would recommend to open short positions. Pending orders to sell can be placed near resistance level of 1.3569. In case of breakdown of the level of 1.3509, trend reversal is possible with further bearish movement.
Kamil Avad Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies.
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Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of USD/CHF USD/CHF, H4 On the four-hour chart Tenkan-sen line has crossed Kijun-sen from above under the cloud, indicating new wave of the downward movement. Chinkou Span line is approaching the price chart from below once again; current cloud is descending. The pair wasn’t able to reach the cloud and went down, however it is rising back to the Tenkan-sen line. Kijun-sen line is the closest resistance level at 0.9065. The pair will meet a support at the level of 0.9030 (previous low of Chinkou Span line).
USD/CHF, H4, D1 Let’s look at the daily chart. Tenkan-sen line has crossed Kijun-sen from above within the cloud, giving a weak signal to sell. Chinkou Span line is approaching the price chart from above; current cloud is ascending. The pair is still trading within the cloud; its lower border is a support level at 0.9062. The closest resistance level is Tenkan-sen line at 0.9085.
Key levels Support levels: 0.9030, 0.9026. Resistance levels: 0.9065, 0.9085. Trading tips On the four-hour chart we’ve got a signal to sell from Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines, the target for the short positions is 0.9030. On the daily chart the price is still within the cloud, pending sell orders can be placed below the lower border of the cloud (0.9026). Anastasiya Glushkova Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
GBP/USD: demand for the USD will grow before the FOMC meeting Current trend At the beginning of the week the British currency has repeatedly approached level of 1.6450, however the “bulls” failed to push the currency above this level. On Tuesday the pair pulled back following publication of the retail sales volume in the UK, which was twice as worse as the forecast, amounting to 0.6%. Later, favourable data on business activity index in construction sector pushed caused the rise in the pair. The American dollar almost does not respond to important releases, standing still in anticipation of the Federal Open Market Committee of the US Fed. The meeting is scheduled for 17 December and discussion is going to be hot: another delay in curtailing of the QE3 can cause collapse of the USD. Attention today shall be focused on the British PMI in the service sector, which is expected to decrease by 0.4%. US trade balance and business activity index in the service sector and the data on construction sector will also become known today. Support and resistance /b] If British PMI meets negative forecast, the pair will rapidly go to strong support level of 1.6260 (highs of October). If the index rises, we can expect breakdown of the key resistance level of 1.6450 and continuation of the ascending movement. Technical indicators show the beginning of decline. MACD indicator demonstrates significant divergence. Support levels: 1.6300, 1.6260 and 1.6200. Resistance levels: 1.6450 and 1.6600. Trading tips In the current situation it is recommended to place sell orders with profit taking at the level of 1.6260.
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies