Eur/usd - page 312
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EUR/USD still over the support level 1.0970 until a break I am out.
Very good and helpfull post . Thanks .
EUR/USD forecast for the week of August 17, 2015
The EUR/USD pair broke higher during the course of the week, slamming into the 1.12 handle. However, we found enough resistance there to turn the market back around and as a result we think that the market continues to consolidate in general, so this is a short-term traders market at best. We have no interest whatsoever in putting a longer-term position on unless of course we break well above the 1.12 level, as it would show that the market trying to finally break out to the upside. In the meantime though, we think that the summertime lack of liquidity will continue to keep this out of the hands of long-term traders.
EUR/USD: Euro Strengthens 1.5 Figures Over Week
The euro-dollar pair managed to rise and was seen at one month highs in the previous week, as traders sold the greenback due to China's devaluation of the yuan. The pair ended the week at $1.1108, around 150 pips higher.
Monday did not bring anything interesting and the dollar was trying to recover from last Friday's sell-off after payrolls.
On Tuesday, China's central bank devalued the yuan by moving the USD/CNY cap 2% higher, effectively weakening the currency by the same margin. The move spurred massive volatility on financial markets, but the greenback managed to strengthen somewhat.
Moreover, ZEW economic sentiment in Germany for August dropped from 29.7 to 25.0, while the current situation gauge improved to 65.7 from 63.9 previously, but this failed to add any pressure on the euro as traders were mainly reacting to the Chinese situation.
On Wednesday, the second devaluation came from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), which set the USD/CNY reference rate 1.6% higher to 6.3306 on Wednesday, compared with 6.2298 on Tuesday. This time, it hit the US dollar pretty hard as traders priced in the probability of a rate hike delay, due to China exporting deflation. Fed funds futures probability for a September rate hike dropped to 40% from 60% previously.
The pair rose around two figures and stopped at $1.12, where profits were taken and dollar bulls reemerged to help defend the area.
On Thursday, retail sales for July in the US grew 0.6% after a revision showed them flat in June, retail sales ex autos grew 0.4% previously and the control core gauge jumped to 0.3%, the US Census Bureau advised.The dollar did not move much and returned to losses later in the session.
Friday brought some European data. European GDP for Q2 ticked lower from 0.4% to 0.3% quarter-on-quarter while year-on-year it printed 1.2%, up from 1.0% previously. Both figures missed market estimates. CPI for July sharply decreased from 0.0% to -0.6%, but remained unchanged at 0.2% year-on-year. Once again, the reaction was very marginal and the pair was trading flat, with only minimal volatility.
Furthermore, the Department of Labor released some data on Friday, specifically producer prices and they rose 0.2% in July, slightly beating the market expectations of a 0.1% increase, following an unrevised 0.4% gain in June.
The US industrial production added 0.6% month-on-month during July, following the revised 0.1% upturn seen in June.
The euro therefore held Wednesday's two figure gains and ended the week sharply higher, boosted mainly by the mentioned dollar weakness.
source
EUR/USD: Breakout Of The Cloud Unconfirmed So Far - JP Morgan
The USD managed to stabilise further after the recent sell-off, so that investors are now curious whether it can develop enough up-momentum to resume its broader up-trend straight away or whether we are only dealing with a countertrend rally, says JP Moran.
"In order to eliminate this risk, the USD Index would have to clear a resistance barrier at 97.766/92 (minor 76.4 %/pivot), or EUR/USD would have to break below key-support between 1.1077 and 1.1044 (minor 38.2 %/daily breakout line). As long as these USD resistance barriers are not taken out, the risk of running into a deeper setback persists," JPM argues.
Specifically in EUR/USD, JPM notes that the red lagging line (see chart) hasn’t displayed two consecutive higher daily closes above the Ichimoku-cloud yet, and the crucial resistance at 1.1288 (minor 76.4 %) remains intact so far which leaves the market in the danger zone.
"Only breaks above 1.1288 and above 1.1381 (daily trend) would free the way for a much broader recovery towards 1.1699 and 1.1811 (int. 38.2 % on highest scales). Breaks below 1.1077/44 (minor 38.2 %/daily breakout line) would on the other hand bring key-support between 1.0784 and 1.0744 (daily trend/int. 76.4 %) back into focus," JPM projects.
On Friday session the EURUSD pair initially rallied but found yet again enough resistance on the 200-day moving average giving all its gains back and closed in the red near the low of the day on a narrow range, creating an inside day. This 3rd failed attempt to close above the 200-day moving average suggests a move downward for today to the 10-day moving average at 1.1052.
The euro recorded a losing session against the dollar on Friday. The pair remained between the two key levels at 1.1080 and 1.1214. It is soon expected EUR to renew its bullish move and to break the first resistance. Trading on Friday started at 1.1148 and the finish line was crossed 40 pips lower. At the beginning the bullish sentiment dominated and currencies reached a peak for the day at 1.1188.
EUR/USD broke the support level 1.197 and dropped 40 pips before rebounding from 1.1050 levels. over all it was a good start for the week for me.
Today EUR/USD continued descending slowly and it is currently testing the support at 1.1070. Should it manage to break below that level it will probably continue falling towards the next support, which is at 1.1000.
On Monday’s session EUR registered a second consecutive loss against USD. The new week started negatively for the single currency, although the session was fairly calm, with no sharp price changes. Although the depreciation of the euro was not significant, it was enough to allow the pair to break the support at 1.1080. Expecting the downward move to continue until 1.1049 level. Trading on Monday started a rate of 1.1115, and the ended 39 pips lower. Bottom of the day was reached at 1.1058.