Eur/usd - page 306
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EU Preview: No Summer Lull in Euro Zone
As turbulent July came to a close with hopes for a calmer August, attention returns to Greece as expert teams from Europe and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) meet with their counterparts in Athens to negotiate the details of a third €86 billion bailout.
However, the talks will be overshadowed by the IMF's announcement on Thursday that the Washington-based lender won’t participate in a new program until there as a "comprehensive" deal on debt relief from Greece’s European creditors.
"This will make it extremely difficult to agree on any form of bailout package in the time allotted simply because Germany have insisted that the IMF has to be involved, which seems rather bizarre, that of all the countries involved it is Germany who opposes the concept of any form of debt relief the most," Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK, noted in his emailed analysis for clients on Friday.
The IMF's categoric stance will certainly complicate the proceedings as any new agreement must be closed before August 20, when Greece is due to make a debt repayment to the European Central Bank (ECB) of more than €3 billion.
Future of the euro at stake
Without a doubt, these recent developments will contribute to the discussion that has already started on the future of the single currency bloc, the euro and, indeed, Europe as a whole.
That brings to mind recent words by Donald Tusk, the EU president, saying that a revolutionary mood is in the air in much of Europe and recalling the left-right alliances of the late 1930s.
Even so, the Pole who himself has had enough experience from turbulent times, failed to acknowledge the root cause of the popular discontent that is felt across the region: the deformed structure of monetary union that -- even after seven years of massive unemployment in the euro zone, especially among its youth -- led to these recent vicious events in the euro area.
"The most impressive for me was this tactical alliance between radical leftists and radical rightists, and not only in the European Parliament ... It was always the same game before the biggest tragedies in our European history, this tactical alliance between radicals from all sides. Today, for sure, we can observe the same political phenomenon," Tusk warned two weeks ago after the Greece/euro zone summit in Brussels.
Somewhat paradoxically, it was the ECB this week which acknowledged in the latest issue of its monthly bulletin that "progress towards real convergence among the 12 countries that formed the euro area in its initial years has been disappointing."
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I dont think we will see much volatility this week till Friday with the NFP and the unemployment rate.
Italy's youth unemployment just hit a new record high — here's what's going wrong
Italian youth unemployment broke a new record today, hitting the eye-watering level of 44.2% in June's figures. That's despite the fact the eurozone is clearly now recovering (slowly) from years of recession and stagnation. Only two European countries have higher youth unemployment than Italy. Greece's rate is 53.2% and Spain's is 49.2%.
So what's going wrong for Italy's young people?
EUR/USD: Euro Remains in Tight Range Ahead of PMIs
The euro traded in a tight range ahead of the European open on Monday, awaiting a fresh batch of PMI data from Italy, Spain, Germany, France, the UK and the US.
Expectations are for Spain to continue to outperform with a reading of 54.2, with Italy at 54.6, while Germany is expected to stay worryingly soft at 51.5. France is once again expected to struggle and come in at 49.6.
The euro was seen flat, hovering under the $1.10 handle ahead of the European open, trading 0.04% higher at $1.0985.
Focus then turns to the US with a raft of economic announcements including the latest personal income and spending data for June, as well as a raft of revisions to previous months. This is important in the context of the spending patterns for US consumers, and their propensity to go out and spend money in the shopping malls of America.
The dollar suffered a broad based weakness following Friday's US Q2 Employment Cost Index (ECI) which recorded its slowest quarterly pace of growth in three decades.
The ECI rose a mere 0.2% in the three months ending June, missing the 0.6% gain markets had been expecting by quite a bit, but following a much more robust 0.7% hike in the first quarter, the Department of Labor said on Friday.
"This strengthened the hand of dovish members of the FOMC who remain circumspect about when inflation will return to the Fed’s target, particularly in light of the renewed weakness in commodity and oil prices. G-10 currencies posted broad-based gains on the back of the weaker data," ANZ wrote in a comment on Monday.
source
Eurozone Markit mftg PMI final 52.4 vs 52.2 exp
Another better final reading but euro unimpressed
EURUSD 1.0970 EURGBP 0.7014 EURJPY 136.25
Greek mftg PMI July 30.2 vs 46.9 prev. Lowest in 16 years
On Friday the trading of EUR/USD was quite variable. During the session the single currency recorded a significant lead against the dollar, reaching a peak for the day at 1.1111 and approaching resistance at 1.1128. A breakthrough level not reachedand just before the end most of the profit was lost. After all the euro gained 52 pips and finished at a price of 1.0982. Short-term expectations remain in its favor.
Calm day for the eurusd.
there was no much movements today on the EUR/USD and I don't expect much this week until friday.
EUR/USD falls slightly as Fed rate hike, Greek concerns remain in focus
EUR/USD fell mildly on Monday extending minor losses from the previous session, as the timing of a highly-anticipated interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve and concerns related to the Greek Debt Crisis remained in focus.
The currency pair traded in a tight range between 1.0941 and 1.0996 during Monday's session before settling at 1.0956, down 0.0028 or 0.25%. The euro closed lower against its American counterpart for the fifth time in six sessions. Since surging more than 1% against the dollar on July 21, however, the fluctuations in the pair have been moderate. Over the last 10 sessions, EUR/USD has closed in between a range of 1.093 and 1.106.
The pair likely gained support at 1.0808 the low from July 20 and was met with resistance at 1.1131, the high from July 27.
On Monday morning, the U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of Economic Analysis said consumer spending increased by 0.2% in June in line with analysts expectations, while personal income rose by 0.4% -- slightly higher than consensus estimates. Analysts forecasted a 0.3% rise in incomes for the month.
More critically the Core PCE Index, which strips out food and energy prices, inched up 0.3% for the month, up from a 0.2% increase for May. On a year-over-year basis, however, the gains were muted as the index only increased by 1.3%.
At its July FOMC meeting last week, the Fed reiterated that inflation remains below its targeted goal of 2% over the medium term, commonly defined as a period of the next one to two years. The reading will likely bolster dovish viewpoints on the Fed for a delayed interest rate hike beyond this fall.
Separately, Gallup said in its monthly U.S. Consumer Spending Measure that self-reports from American consumers on a monthly basis averaged approximately $91 for July, up one dollar from its level in June. While the figure is slightly lower than its level from July, 2014, it is also higher than any other reading for the month since 2009. Over the last several months, consumer spending has remained relatively flat, according to Gallup's measure.
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EUR/USD recorded a minimum decrease on Monday session. The pair started the week without a significant change in the price. The session was open to the rate of 1.0971 and ended 22 pips lower. Sharp movements were not recorded, the difference between the highest and lowest value for the day was 54 pips. If expectations for new growth in the single currency come true, the resistance at 1.1128 will break through.