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All depends on news on Greece - rumors, news, fairy tales, whatever - that is the only thing driving EURUSD today
EUR/USD: Euro Recovers on Greek Deal Headlines
The euro suddenly bounced off its intraday lows during the morning US session and recovered ground against its US peer, following headlines saying that Greece and its foreign lenders have started crafting a staff level deal.
The single currency added 0.13% to $1.0882 at around noon in the European session.
Earlier in the day, it tested the $1.0930 barrier, but was unable to break it. At the time, the fresh bids in the euro were on the back of better-than-expected German consumer confidence, which soared to a 13-year high, and were then exhausted after French consumer confidence fell more than projected in May.
Taking shape
"At the Brussels Group today procedures to draw up a staff-level agreement are beginning," a Greek source told Reuters on Wednesday.
According to the story, both sides are starting to draft a technical-level agreement that will include no more wage or pension cuts.
Still, ongoing differences between the EU and IMF have been holding up an overall deal, the source said. "There remains a problem with the differing stance among the institutions. If an agreement by the IMF was not needed, the deal would have closed by now."
Ripe to fall
The euro is ripe for further depreciation against its US peer, Danske Bank said on Tuesday, predicting the pair would reach the $1.02 level in six months time.
"Fundamentally, we still look for EUR/USD to head lower in the coming 3-6 months, targeting the cross at $1.02 in 6 months," Sverre Holbek of Danske wrote in a note.
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The downward trend is still in the process of development, reconstruction after the recent test above 1.0850 at this stage is corrective. Critical zone remains 1.0960 and immediate support is 1.0784.
EUR/USD dropped to test the support level 1.0810 and rebounded quickly I keep a short under 1.0810 but I doubt it will open.
EUR/USD halts four-day skid, as Greece moves closer to reaching deal
EUR/USD inched higher on Wednesday halting a four-day slump, as market players kept a close eye on major developments in the Greek debt negotiations.
In Brussels, Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras said his nation is close to reaching an agreement with its troika of creditors deemed necessary to unlock critical aid that could allow it to stave off bankruptcy. The two sides have begun the process of drafting a technical level agreement on a comprehensive bailout package, according to Athens officials.
"We have made many steps. We are on the final stretch towards a positive deal," Tsipras told reporters."
EUR/USD gained 0.0031 or 0.29% to 1.0905 placing the brakes on an extended skid over the last 10 sessions. Previously, the euro had fallen sharply from a three-month high of 1.1467 on May 15, as the possibility of a 2015 interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve coincided with heightened concern of a Greek departure from the European Union.
A deal in the four-month stalemate could free up the remaining €7.2 billion of a 240 billion bailout euro zone creditors have provided to the cash-strapped Mediterranean nation. Greece is in desperate need of the stimulus package as it reportedly grows closer to running out of cash by the day. Before the deadline to reach an agreement expires at the end of June, Greece owes approximately €1.6 billion to the International Monetary Fund over several payments due next month.
Greek officials believe a deal can be reached without making concessions for pension and wage cuts, according to multiple reports. The austerity measures, however, were presumed to be a prerequisite for reaching any accord. Officials from the European Commission, meanwhile, painted a different picture on the developments of negotiations.
“We are working very intensively to ensure a staff-level agreement," European Commission vice president Valdis Dombrovskis told reporters. "We're still not there yet."
On Wednesday afternoon, shares on the Greek Stock Market soared at the prospects of a deal.
EUR/USD likely gained support at 1.0862, the low from May 26 and was met with resistance at 1.1181, the high from May 21.
Yields on Greek 10-Year bonds plunged 86 basis to 10.58% amid the developments in the talks. On a year-over-year basis, the yields are still up 485 basis points, illustrating the diminishing value in Greek sovereign debt.
Yields on German 10-Year bunds inched up a basis point to 0.55%, while yields on U.S. 10-Year Treasuries fell a basis point to 2.13%. The spread between U.S. and Germany 10-year bonds rose to 157 basis points.
USD/CAD remained steady around six-week highs of 1.2454 after the Bank of Canada decided to keep its benchmark interest rate constant at 0.75%.
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EUR/USD: Euro Holds Above $1.09 on Greek Hopes
The euro stays driven by development surrounding Greece. The euro wiped out some of the previous losses on news that Greece had bridged enough of the gap with its creditors for the parties to start drafting an accord on Wednesday night.
After Greek PM Tsipras said that a solution is "close", the euro bounced back from more-than-one-month lows of $1.0820. Ahead of the opening bell, EUR/USD is slightly higher, up by 0.13% to $1.0916.
However, it quickly became clear that Greek officials were presenting a rosier picture of negotiations than their European counterparts. Firstly, the European Commission stated that a deal is not imminent and German Finance Minister Schaeuble said he was surprised to hear reports of an imminent deal.
It's needless to say that debt restructuring or debt forgiveness of any sort, has been consistently ruled out by EU officials, while at the same time they have also been particularly insistent on Greece implementing labor market and pensions reform.
On the economic front, Europe offers little in the way of market-moving data. The attention will therefore turn again to the US session with some important data to watch, including weekly jobless claims, pending home sales and oil inventories.
The EURUSD initially fell on yesterday session but found enough buying pressure just below the Fibonacci retracement (61.8) at 1.0853 to turn around and close in the green near the open of the day. Also the Scholastic is an oversold market so we may expect a pause in the downward trend and a retest of the 50-day moving average at 1.0986.
The pair broke the three-day series of losses on Wednesday after the euro rose by almost 30 pips to a closing price of 1.0903. The session was not lack of volatility and extreme values were recorded respectively at 1.0928 and 1.0819. The outlook in the short term remains negative, the levels of yesterday’s bottom appear to be immediate target.
Thank you for the information.
EUR/USD ticks up as Greek debt talks, Fed rate hike remain in focus
EUR/USD rose modestly on Thursday extending gains from one session earlier, as currency traders closely observed high-level discussions in Brussels regarding the Greek debt crisis and mulled polarizing views from influential Federal Reserve officials on the timing of an interest rate hike.
EUR/USD gained .0043 to 1.0948, as the pair continued its rally following a sharp depreciation over the last two weeks. The euro is still down considerably against its U.S. counterpart since soaring to monthly highs of 1.1467 in the middle of May. Before Thursday's session, EUR/USD closed lower in eight of its previous 10 sessions.
The pair likely gained support at 1.0819, the low from May 27 and was met with resistance at 1.1211, the high from May 22.
In Brussels, there were few developments in talks between Greece and its troika of creditors from the International Monetary Fund, European Central Bank and European Commission, as the beleaguered nation looks to reach an accord which would unlock critical aid deemed necessary to stave off bankruptcy. One day earlier, Greece prime minister Alexis Tsipras said the sides had moved closer to striking a deal after beginning the initial process of drafting a technical level agreement. European officials reportedly have downplayed the developments.
A deal in the four-month stalemate could free up the remaining €7.2 billion of a 240 billion bailout euro zone creditors have provided to the cash-strapped Mediterranean nation. Greece is in desperate need of the stimulus package as it reportedly grows closer to running out of cash by the day. Before the deadline to reach an agreement expires at the end of June, Greece owes approximately €1.6 billion to the International Monetary Fund over several payments due next month.
Yields on Greece 10-Year bonds rose 16 basis points to 10.74%, one day after bond prices surged amid heightened expectations of a deal.
Meanwhile, two prominent Federal Reserve policymakers offered divergent views on the timing of an interest rate hike in speeches on opposite ends of the globe. Delivering a speech to a banking supervision conference in Singapore, San Francisco Fed president John Williams said he thinks the Fed will raise rates at some point this year while predicting above-trend growth in the U.S. economy for the rest of 2015. Hours later, Minneapolis Fed president Narayana Kocherlakota indicated that it would be a mistake for the Fed to institute a rate hike this year, adding that it would take four years of job growth at last year's rate for the labor market to return to its level from 2007 before the Financial Crisis.
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