Eur/usd - page 266
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EURUSD rose on yesterday session breaking above previous swing high and close in the middle of the daily range on a narrow range day. The narrow range day is a sign of weakness in the upward momentum as the currency approaches a daily resistance at 1.1460. Today we have a light economic agenda so is a great day for retail profit taking, meaning that today should be a bearish day also with a narrow range day.
EURUSD retreats as 10 year US/Bund spreads widen but Asian bids await
Another session which is not for the faint-hearted or greedy but one providing opportunity for day traders at least
Currently 1.1355 and under pressure still as USD buyers dominate across the board
Price broke over resistance level 1.1400 and I am going long over 1.1450.
EURO recorded a third consecutive successful session against the dollar on Thursday. The pair expectations for further increase and as a result, a test of resistance at 1.1449. It didn’t break through and so currencies finished slightly below its levels. Ultimately, short-term indicators remain in favor of the euro. Trading on Thursday was opened at a price of 1.1353, and the final pan-European currency gained 55 pips. Tip of the day was celebrated on a course of 1.1444. Support: 1.1069; 1.1015. Resistance: 1.1449; 1.1534.
EUR/USD continues climb toward 1.15, as U.S. consumer sentiment fades
The euro continued its steady climb against the dollar on Friday extending its winning streak to a fourth consecutive session, as the greenback stumbled following another batch of soft economic data.
EUR/USD stood at 1.1446 at Friday's close, up 0.33%, rallying from session-lows of 1.1324 as currency traders locked into gains from earlier this week when the euro soared to a three-month high. The euro ended the week up 2.25% against its U.S. counterpart and has gained roughly 7% over the last month.
While EUR/USD is up nearly 9% after touching down to 12-year lows near 1.04 in mid-March, the euro is still down more than 5.15% against the dollar since the start of the year when it stood at 1.2104.
Consumer confidence, one of the lone bright spot in the U.S. economy in recent weeks, appears to have peaked. On Friday, the University of Michigan reported that its Consumer Sentiment Index plunged to 88.6, far below low consensus estimates of a 93.5 reading. In terms of current conditions, the survey indicated a drop of 7.2% to 99.8, the lowest level since October. Consumer expectations are comparatively bleak, falling 7.3% from the last reading to 81.5, the worst level in five months.
The downbeat survey comes days after the U.S. Census Bureau reported little change in consumer spending throughout the nation. U.S. retail sales remained flat in April below economists' forecasts of a 0.2 gain. Hawkish policy makers at the Federal Reserve had pointed to strong consumer sentiments and seasonally-affected drags in spending as signals of an improving economy. The downbeat data, however, could appease the doves on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in favor of a delayed interest rate hike.
Last month, the FOMC removed all calendar references to the timing of its first interest rate hike in nearly a decade. While San Francisco Fed president John Williams said earlier this week that a June rate hike still remains on the table, it is becoming increasingly likely that the Fed will that the Fed will wait until September or even December before raising its benchmark Fed Funds Rate above its current level of zero to 0.25%.
At the same time, the University of Michigan indicated that inflation expectations are going up in large part to increases in energy prices. Inflation expectations over the next year increased 0.3% to 2.9%, according to the consumer survey. The Fed would like to see inflation move toward its targeted goal of 2% annually before it increases interest rates.
Investors await the release of next week's Consumer Price Index (CPI) for further indications on the state of the economy. Although the CPI gained 0.2% in March after falling sharply in January, it was still 0.1% lower on a year-over-year basis. Bond markets typically rally when there are increases in the CPI.
Yields on U.S. 10-Year Treasuries plunged nine basis points to 2.148% on Friday, while yields on the 30-Year Treasuries plummeted 11 basis points to 2.935%. Earlier in the week, 10-year Treasuries soared to a six-month high at 2.36% and the 30-year moved above 3% for the first time this year amid a rout in the global bond markets.
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EU Preview: ZEW, Ifo, Flash PMIs & EU Leaders Summit
A large set of important macroeconomic data including the BoE minutes, the ZEW and Ifo survey results and flash PMIs will attract the attention of traders and markets watchers alike, while the EU summit with the leaders of eastern European countries in Riga may bring the Greek saga closer to a resolution.
Frankfurt/Brussels - The Bank of England (BoE) will release minutes of its Monetary Policy Committee’s May 7-8 meeting, at which board members decided to keep the benchmark interest rate at the current 0.5%. The announcement was delayed until May 11 because of the UK general election on May 7.
Greek talks to continue
Greece's Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is reportedly planning to press European Union (EU) leaders during the two-day EU summit with the leaders of eastern European countries in Latvian Riga on Thursday, to help resolve the deadlock in talks with international creditors.
Tsipras will raise the issue on the sidelines of talks to be held on Thursday and Friday as Greece is not on the official meeting agenda.
While euro zone finance ministers have acknowledged progress in talks between Greece and its creditors at their last Eurogroup meeting, there are still some major issues to solve and little time remains to prevent the Greek debt crisis exploding. They also warned that "more time and effort are needed to bridge the gaps" on remaining issues.
Greece's Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis also said that progress has been made but ruled out implementing some of the suggested measures, including capital controls. In addition, he warned that liquidity problems have become a "terribly urgent issue."
Technical level talks between Athens and its creditors continue and are expected to last throughout the weekend, with a possible meeting on Monday in Brussels.
According to Greek media, the negotiations are now focused on the remaining differences between Athens and its lenders: the size of the budget gap, which will determine the extent of the measures that Greece will be obliged to take, pension and labor reforms and VAT changes.
Both sides have made some compromise moves and shown willingness towards more flexibility.
Greece's Defense Minister Panos Kammenos confirmed on Friday that the government is in advanced talks with Chinese company Cosco over the privatization of its largest port in Piraeus, as the lenders have been pushing for more sales and privatizations of state-owned assets.
On the other side, the IMF said that they would remain "flexible" about the potential downward revision to Greece’s budget primary surplus target of 3% of GDP.
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EUR/USD Forecast May 18-22
EUR/USD was was initially pressured to the downside but then reached new highs in another volatile week. What’s next for the pair? Forward looking indicators stand out now. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.
Euro-zone GDP figures were mixed, with stronger than expected numbers from France and Italy but slower growth from Germany that eventually led to a small miss in the overall growth numbers. Draghi dragged the currency down once again by reiterating that QE will be fully implemented. But the pair has two sides and yet another disappointing retail sales report hit the dollar hard. Better than expected jobless claims and other figures only partially compensated.
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EUR/USD - early week move on Greece / IMF weekend news
Over the weekend we had Kathimerini newspaper reporting on Greek PM Tsipras' warning toJuncker, Lagarde and Draghi.The Financial Times has verified the story independently (FT is gated, but here is the link)
Its made it to the front page:
Along with continued pressure from Germany, its weighing on EUR/USD in the early going, with a small move lower from Friday's finishing levels:
source
Euro Falls Below $1.14 as Greece Remains Key Issue
The European calendar is expected to be calm at the beginning of the week, however Greece remains in the primary focus.
In the latter part of the week, the focus will be on a raft of economic data from Europe, as well as the publication of central bank minutesfrom the Federal Reserve.
"There are concerns that the recent recovery in European data could start to plateau as the euro recovers. The latest German ZEW surveys as well as the latest French and German May PMI updates, aren’t expected to show much of an improvement on some of the more recent updates," Michael Hewson from CMC Markets UK wrote on Monday.
After the opening bell on Monday the euro traded down 0.37% at $1.14, still holding onto February highs. An elevated euro as well as events in Greece remain the main concerns for European equities.
Greece remains in the headlines as the country struggles to pay its obligations. According to reports in the Greek media, the country's credit system has a cash cushion of just €3.5 billion in unused liquidity, following an increase in the deposits outflow last month.
On the other side of Atlantic, the main focus this week in light of the continued weakness in US economic data will be the release of the Federal Open Market Committee minutes. "Though given some of the recent weakness seen in the data since the meeting at the end of April, these minutes could well be somewhat stale," Hewson added.
source
EURUSD initially fell on Fridays trading session but found enough buying pressure at Thursdays low to turn around and closed in the green near the high of the day. We are at a major daily resistance 1.1460 and we may enter in a choppy consolidation or even a pullback to the 10-day moving average at 1.1305 before another push upward. Only a clean break above 1.1556 daily resistance will signal that the currency is ready its upward trend.