Eur/usd - page 279
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The euro registered a sharp rise in the first day of the new week after upward trend throughout the day. The session launched at a price of 1.1096, then the direction went down slightly, but in the afternoon the couple started upward move and at the end of the day finished at the price of 1.1302. In case continuing in upward direction, we can expect a test of resistance at 1.1467.
EUR/USD: Bears May Regain Upper Hand
For those of you tracking at home, we’ve gone almost 48 hours into a new trading week without an in-depth look at EUR/USD; so of course an update is warranted. So far this week, the world’s most widely traded currency pair has rallied sharply, undoing all of the losses from Friday’s stellar NFP report to trade back above 1.1300 earlier Tuesday morning. The majority of the move took place Monday amidst (misplaced) speculation about major progress in Greek debt negotiations and (since-denied) rumors that US President Obama was uncomfortable with the high value of the US dollar. While there could still be some bullish-euro developments on these fronts, it currently looks like Monday’s optimism may have been misplaced.
From a technical perspective, the recent rally has driven EUR/USD into a potential “sweet spot” for bears. The bearish trend line off last year’s early July high has served as strong resistance on six separate occasions in the past year, including last Thursday’s clear Bearish Pin Candle*, or inverted hammer. This barrier comes in at 1.1375, just above Tuesday’s high. At the same time, the secondary indicators are relatively neutral, with the MACD ticking higher modestly above the “0” level while the RSI holds steady in the 50-60 range.
Given the seemingly unwarranted rally on Monday’s “bullish” fundamental catalysts (thus far) and strong technical barrier in the upper-1.13s, traders may look to fade the near-term bounce. If that situation develops, EUR/USD may drop back toward last week’s low at the key previous support/resistance line around 1.1050. Conveniently, that's also where the widely watched 50-day moving average comes in. On the other hand, a legitimate breakthrough in Greece’s negotiations could remove some of the near-term geopolitical uncertainty and take EUR/USD back toward the mid-May peak near 1.1500
*A Bearish Pin (Pinnochio) candle, or inverted hammer, is formed when prices rally within the candle before sellers step in and push prices back down to close near the open. It suggests the potential for a bearish continuation if the low of the candle is broken.
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Market is trading in tight range. EUR/USD is trading around the opening price.
EUR/USD: Euro Attacks $1.13 Ahead of Opening Bell
The lack of any eventful fundamentals on Wednesday in the euro zone shifts most of the traders attention to the Greece situation.
The mood in Brussels certainly does seem to be changing with talk that the EU Commission, which had been broadly supportive of Greece, is starting to lose confidence at the prospect of a deal. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has a meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande today.
"Every time there is talk of a possible Greek deal, as new proposals are submitted, we get a little surge of optimism followed by the inevitable feeling of another let down," Michael Hewson from CMC Markets UK wrote in a research note on Wednesday.
The euro was seen a little higher ahead of the European opening bell, edging up 0.07% to $1.1289.
The recent pick up in economic data, a rebound in inflation as well as improving Q2 figures, reduces the attraction of bonds, particularly German ones. It is expected that the improvement in German industrial production for April, released on Monday, will be replicated in the French and Italy numbers released this morning, with rises of 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively, expected.
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Italian industrial production April mm -0.3% vs +0.3%exp
+0.5% prev
EUR/USD: Euro's Spike Short-Lived, Back to $1.13
The euro returned to the flatline against the dollar on Wednesday, following a short-lived rally to $1.14 after Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda's FX comments earlier in the session.
The euro traded up 0.14% at $1.1300 against the dollar on Wednesday, retreating after hitting a two-week high $1.1386.
The broad dollar weakening arrived after BoJ Governor Kuroda said that the yen was too weak on an effective exchange rate basis, sending the dollar 1.5% lower against the yen, which also weighed on the dollar against other crosses.
Meanwhile, the Greek issue remains the major concern of the euro zone as Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras' proposal has been under review but still not regarded as credible in German Finance Minster Wolfgang Schaeuble's view. Moreover, besides relatively positive recent inflation data, the euro zone still struggles with high unemployment and a slow recovery from stagnation, looking to the European Central Bank's quantitative easing to help the bloc to improve economically.
Investors are positioning themselves for Thursday's much-awaited report on US retail sales that is expected to reveal a 1.2% rise for May - a jump from the zero reading recorded a month ago.
A strong figure would reinforce the actual market prediction that the Federal Reserve would start to raise its interest rates at its September meeting. The bank's next meeting is scheduled for June 16-17.
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ECB said to raise Greek ELA ceiling to 83B euros from 80.7B euros
Hefty increase this weekIt's the largest increase since February.
It's a sign there's a squeeze on Greek banks.
But it's also a sign that the ECB is willing to help and that's a good signal that a deal might be near.
source
EUR/USD was hesitant yesterday and expectations are neutral. Generally price is still in the upward phase after the bounce from 1.0819, but the main prospects are bearish. A key resistance is seen between 1.1350 - 1.1465, a good place for sales with tight stop loss above 1.1465. The nearest support is at 1.1240. A clear break below it could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.1180 but remains important support of 1.1050.
EUR/USD: Euro Defends $1.13 Handle Ahead of Opening Bell -
The euro remains slightly subdued on Thursday as last night’s late meeting between Germany’s Merkel, France’s Hollande and the Greek Prime Minister Tsipras broke up without any of the parties giving any clues as to progress.
Michael Hewson from CMC Markets UK suggests that yesterday’s market reaction may have been a little over optimistic. "Despite yesterday’s market strong market rebound the fact remains that any agreement would still need to get past the Greek parliament, which is by no means a certainty, as well as getting agreement from the EU, IMF and ECB."
The euro was little lower ahead of the opening bell, down by 0.23% to $1.1295.
With a rather light economic calendar, only French CPI release is eyed, attention continues to be centered on Greece.
Yesterday's optimism was little offset by S&P’s downgrade of Greek debt. However talks will be ongoing and headlines will continue to swirl.
"Bundling Greece’s debt does not necessarily mean the payment will be made and I won’t be surprised to see further volatility ahead. EUR/USD is just holding on to the $1.1300 handle and given data is light today I don’t expect any big moves unless Greece headlinesemerge," Stan Shamu from IG commented on Thursday.
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EUR/USD is open for more drop as long as we are under 1.1330 the first support level is at 1.1175.