Eur/usd - page 282

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Yesterday the EURUSD initially fell after fears of a potential Greece failure to reach a deal with its creditors in time, but the currency hold its ground at 1.1185 Fibonacci retracement and reversed closing in the green near the high of the day. The pair is still in a choppy consolidation due to fundamental uncertainties but may test again the 1.1391.

 

German Investors' Optimism Fades in June: ZEW

Investors in Europe's number one economy were less optimistic about the country's economic prospects in June, the closely watched onward-looking ZEW survey from Germany showed on Tuesday.

The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, evaluating the economic outlook of about 350 respondents for the six months ahead, fell to 31.5 in the sixth month of the year, down from the previous month when the reading stood at 41.9 points.

Investor's confidence worsened for the third consecutive month and eased further from the multi-month high reached in March when it came in at 54.8 points.

Moreover, the Current Situation Indicator came in at 62.9 in the reported month, declining from May's 65.7 and compared with analysts' forecast of 63 points.

"The external factors reduce scope for German economic situation, including uncertainty over Greece and main global economic concerns," professor Clemens Fuest from ZEW institute commented on the results.

Analysts and market commentator though believe that the underlying strength of German economy would be undermined quickly should Greek crisis deepens.

"In these exciting days when events come thick and fast, today’s ZEW index is just a snapshot. A snapshot which has probably not fully incorporated latest Greek events," Carsten Brzeski from ING noted after the data release pointing out that "the positive scenario would become obsolete if and when the Greek crisis would escalate further."

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EUR / USD had a bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.1293. My expectations are bullish on testing 1.1350 / 80. Initial support is at 1.1235, whose breach could lead price to neutral trading zone testing important support 1.1180, which should be clearly pierced for the continuation of the bearish scenario testing 1.1100 - 1.1050. Basically, as long as price stay below 1.1465 I prefer bearish scenario at this phase.

 

EUR/USD today tested the the resistance level 1.1330 and the support 1.1200 and still there was no break price keep swinging between support and resistance. The RSI is badly directed and as long as the price is under 1.1330 the way is open for more drop.

 

EUR/USD: Euro Ticks Higher, Ignores Greek Deadlock

The euro traded in a narrow range but slightly higher amid the continuing Greek crisis, with hopes fading of an agreement before Thursday's Eurogroup meeting. Attention will shift later in the day to the FOMC meeting outcome and Fed Chair Yellen's presser. - See more at:

There hasn't been much development on the euro front with the Greek saga still lacking any signs of real progress, while all eyes shift to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting outcome in the US session ahead.

The euro remained trading in a narrow range after the European opening bell on Wednesday, 0.17% higher at $1.1265.

"Risk appetite it seems needs to be increasing if EUR/USD is to sell-off, which plays into the idea that the EUR is the key funding currency in the market. A further escalation in the Greek drama seems inevitable, however the irony it seems is this isn’t actually EUR bearish," Stan Shamu from IG wrote on Wednesday.

The rhetoric between Greece and its creditors is escalating as Thursday's deadline for a deal fast approaches.

Greek PM Alexis Tsipras said the current plan is humiliating for Greeks while Finance Minister Varoufakis indicated Greece does not intend to present any new proposals at the Thursday meeting.

On the data front, traders will eye the euro zone CPI gauge for May, where an improvement to 0.3% growth is expected on an annual basis.

The probability of the Federal Reserve (Fed) raising rates this month is very low, though. The focus tonight will be the commentary of Fed Chair Janet Yellen and her language indicating any forward guidance. Markets will look for any hints on whether the Fed will make the move in September or December.

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The unsuccessful attempt of the pair to break the resistance at 1.1330 interrupted the upward movement and direct it towards new test of support at 1.1150.

 

On yesterday session the EURUSD tried to rally but was short lived as selling pressure started to increase at 1.1329 forcing prices back down and closed in the red at the middle of the daily range. The currency is in a tight choppy consolidation waiting for the Greek deal resolution one way or another.

 

Sideways trading continues... Consolidation is serious.

 

now again we have the US interest rate decision and Yellen conference. I wish you a successful trade.

 

EUR/USD: Euro Flat in Post-FOMC World, Eurogroup in Focus

With the FOMC meeting being old news already, the Eurogroup meeting in the session ahead attracts traders' full attention. Expectations for any sort of resolution between Greece and its creditors are low and after the huge levels of depositor outflows from Greek bank accounts, expectations of capital controls this weekend have really ramped up.

The US dollar index turned nearly 1.0% lower after the FOMC outcome while the acceleration in the Greek drama seems to set the main stage on Thursday.

The EUR/USD hovers near its highest since early June in the previous session following the FOMC and Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Yellen's comments. The euro traded 0.19% higher to $1.1355 ahead of the European market open.

"Things have been tough in Greece for a while now, but the prospect of capital controls means things could be about to get just that little bit more painful. The irony of this all is that the more pronounced the falls in European equities is, the better the EUR holds up," Chris Weston from IG wrote on Thursday.

Today's Eurogroup meeting in Luxembourg is anticipated as the last chance for Greece to strike a deal in time for the end of June. Regrettably the meeting is likely to come and go without any deal, given that Greek officials have refused to submit any fresh proposals. ECB President Mario Draghi and ECB policymaker Benoit Cœuré are also scheduled to attend the meeting.

Regarding the FOMC meeting, a dovish statement was followed by Yellen's comments, whichurged focus on the pace of the rate increase rather than the exact timing of lift-off.

In fact, the Chair continued to de-emphasize the timing of liftoff and stuck to the shop-worn script that lift-off would likely occur later this year. In doing so, Yellen is providing further confirmation that economic conditions no longer warrant crisis-level interest rates.

In the US session ahead, traders will shift their attention to the US consumer inflation gauge, weekly jobless claims, current account and the Philly Fed Manufacturing gauge, which may provide more direction for the US dollar.

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