Advanced trading lessons - page 36

 

Think

SIMBA:
Thanks, you are welcome.

Last but not least,see in the attachment how by using this method,one can nail near perfect entries with very low risk,of course,to do so,one must have a minimum of cognitive abilities,you know what I mean ....Sold less than 2 pips below the High of today

EDIT:1-Not shown in the attachment,I have a TP at 1.28785(I expect end of swing at 1.28750...+spread,slippage) and SL at 1.29510

2-By using M30 Candles on a M1 chart(not shown,but you can try yourselves) and linking the top candle´s high with each consecutive candle´s high and waiting for a TL crossover,I would have got an exit at 1.29100,including spread and slippage...I didn´t take it because I have a very clear target,but this makes me think that this method could be used for both entries and TP exits,BUT,probably not for SL.

Regards

S
philt:
To be honest all I can see is going over the same charts time and time again. Looking back over a few months, even longer to see where there is a fit and you could do that with almost anything. What about the charts of now, this week into next week to get some idea about a trade...apart Simbas one demo trade and to be honest he was just trying to be clever and not much else, there has been nothing else.. Hope you can see what I mean..

Then I was doubly clever ...Besides entering my short 2 pips below the high,I wrote that I expected the end of the downswing at 1.28750...actual low of the downswing was 1.28743 .

I know it hurts the ego of most traders,but ask yourselves a question...Could you do the same?Nailing 105 pips(I closed at 1.28785 for the reasons explained in my previous post) out of a 111 pips swing,and posting it as it develops at a public forum...Just think about it,instead of looking for excuses to preserve your ego integrity.I already explained how I nailed the high using(partially) this method,and there is a pic by Boe using a different trendline in the same candle frame(240 minutes) that points to the same price area...Ask yourselves,could those 2 different methods be applied to triangulate a valid reversal?And the key word is triangulate...Additionally,think how could you have used this method to decide about 1.28750 as high probability end of swing price...Think,test,and stop looking for excuses,then you will learn.

For example...Today I am expecting a swing high in the 1.30130-1.30350 area(High so far 1.30122 at time of posting),but today is a trend day so EURUSD may go up to 1.30760,how could I use this trendline method in addition to my proprietary levels to avoid a premature entry?

BTW:I am starting to agree with philt that besides my trade and comment about target exit,there is no real time nor prospective analysis here by the thread originator.I am not "requesting" it ...Just asking politely.

Regards

S

 
SIMBA:
Then I was doubly clever ...Besides entering my short 2 pips below the high,I wrote that I expected the end of the downswing at 1.28750...actual low of the downswing was 1.28743 .

I know it hurts the ego of most traders,but ask yourselves a question...Could you do the same?Nailing 105 pips(I closed at 1.28785 for the reasons explained in my previous post) out of a 111 pips swing,and posting it as it develops at a public forum...Just think about it,instead of looking for excuses to preserve your ego integrity.I already explained how I nailed the high using(partially) this method,and there is a pic by Boe using a different trendline in the same candle frame(240 minutes) that points to the same price area...Ask yourselves,could those 2 different methods be applied to triangulate a valid reversal?And the key word is triangulate...Additionally,think how could you have used this method to decide about 1.28750 as high probability end of swing price...Think,test,and stop looking for excuses,then you will learn.

For example...Today I am expecting a swing high in the 1.30130-1.30350 area(High so far 1.30122 at time of posting),but today is a trend day so EURUSD may go up to 1.30760,how could I use this trendline method in addition to my proprietary levels to avoid a premature entry?

BTW:I am starting to agree with philt that besides my trade and comment about target exit,there is no real time nor prospective analysis here by the thread originator.I am not "requesting" it ...Just asking politely.

Regards

S

Yes i must admit Simba it was good call and trade, and it was appreciated as it is the only trade we have seen from this strategy.... so was most helpful..

Yes i am asking politely to boe very kindly to show us some trade objectives now, we have enough explination..

 

this is eu/usd on 1h

Files:
immagine.jpg  102 kb
 
trendchangetrader:
I guess my eu short i posted and my gu long do not qualify... i did not post my eu long sorry

regards

TCT

TCT

Very good entries,specially the GU one.

Now, if the thread´s originator were so kind to enlighten us on "near real time" analysis,then I believe the thread will gain a lot from it.

Regards

S

 

Hi Simba,

Thanks... I think I've just been trying to illustrate that we can make things as complex or simple as we want... using higher tf candles with trendlines... and then taking entries from repetitive abc pattern of lower tf is practical. So I'm thinking the simplicity might help someone.

Of course this is Boe's thread... and I'll look for more from Boe.

Regards

TCT

 

simplicity

lets strive for that i keep having to work they are killing me. i have a few hours tonight.

so i will work on the first page... think simplifies. nice trading by the way.

 

some times you have to re=evaluate

re-evaluating is smart some times but you do not want to do so at the moment of entry,

you should do it after your entry is locked into favor. or well before entry.

i looked at my scenario and new because two things... range and time that my probability candle for the week

is wrong.

because of range related to time. this is really good news actually.

why because this up move entries are most likely going for a long ride. i will show you two possibilities and why.

i will explain range and time evaluations.

 

range and time

range and time evaluation is a simple concept, how much range have we moved in one

direction compared to how much time is left in the week in this case.

now if you expect a turn around after a candles close that takes trapping time in most cases

except the two bar reverse or engulfing reverse traps. all other traps take time in a range

to develop.

so if you go two far in range the distance you have to turn around is greater. and if you close

strong with a trending candle the probability goes way down that the trap will be off that type

of candle.

so after a strong daily close here.. the odds of a large pull back swing is out numbered here.

now that means we are still long here. we will see a pull back here but not to the degree

of a major swing. unless you are talking 3 to 5 hours as a swing.

after the monthly trend line is crossed we will get a good size swing down still. but only after

the trend line is crossed.

one thing you will learn with time is how long it takes for things to develop. compared to range

moments.

so i have two possibilities laid out for the week after we got more info. and both are basically the same thing.

only different closes. if we get ether candle close like i think they will, we are in for a major reversal swing,

long against the down trend.

i will find examples so you can see.

 

yearly analysis

this is shot of my yearly anlysis

Files:
 

my wife gave me

my wife clicked on a Google page link to face book and handy capped my pc.

so i have been in this platform freeze mode for day,s it has killed my will to

get anything done. i thought i fixed it 3 times now... i think i finally just

got .. i hope.. this one was nasty.. undetectable by all kinds of expensive

software.. but i got smart and started deleting every thing except a few programs.

i should be much more efficient tomorrow.