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Fundamental Analysis, January, 26 / 2012
The announcement of the Federal Reserve monetary policy data has brought a few surprises during the first game of the year.
Although there will be no change in interest rates, there is no need to postpone any decision to stay very close to zero from mid 2013 until 2014.
The situation undergoes changes in terms of controlled inflation, even after some last year’s money infusions and so-called "Operation Twist", as well as and the creation of jobs indicating the slight but slow improvements.
The first conclusion is that the Fed for many years has not been seeing the signs of economic recovery and with the measures announced today left the possibility of a new stimulus for the economy by injecting money (QE).
This fact can be observes as well in the Fed’s report concerning its forecasts of economic growth for this year defined in the range from 2.2 to 2.5%. For the next year the growth is expected to be between 2.8 and 3.2%.
The announcement was followed by the overall decrease of the dollar. Once again the US dollar lost its advantages as an investment currency and as a hope for investors.
In this regard, we believe that the dollar acting in this way provides the greater freedom for the various activities against it. In other words, regardless the negative news from Europe, the euro exchange rate could be affected without being influenced by other currencies.
Of course, the NYSE shares closed with a good profit and continued its growth till the end of the day. The Dow Jones reached its highest level since July 2011.
The ounce of gold has also "flew" after the Fed’s announcement and by the end of American session in a couple of hours collected more than $ 60 in quotes.
As for the currencies, the dollar was the one that stood in the breach. Almost immediately the euro has broken the area of �‹�‹1.31, completing 190 points between the daily minimum and maximum. The pound and Swiss franc followed the same tendency.
From the European point of view, there is nothing new. The same speeches, twists, elapsed time, Greece which is expected to set out the side and the debt, or bankruptcy, out of the euro and return to the drachma. Following the IMF, the European Central Bank, banks and European finance committees are playing with fire.
The European session on Thursday reflects what has happened the night before. The DAX 30, CAC 40 and FTSE 100 shares were very successful. The first brought the index to its highest level in the end of July, with a slight profit taking during the last few minutes, but remaining the bullish trend.
Of course the European currencies rose significantly, although the price curves across the EUR / USD, GBP / USD and USD / CHF pairs indicate the possible trend exhaustion.
The agenda includes information required in the weekly Thursday durable goods orders and jobless rates at 8:30 ET. At 10:00 the new turn of home sales will take place.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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GOLD - Bullish Outlook, Juanary 26, 2011 (Daily Strategy)
GOLD
The ounce of gold appreciated strongly over $60 yesterday, reaching the maximum of 1,719 during the European session, this increase happened as the Federal Reserve Committee acted in accord to its commitment to keep interest rates at levels exceptionally low until the end of 2014.
The price of gold could undergo some corrections, maybe the American session close can be interpreted as profit-taking after record intraday trade with huge profits. However, in the medium term gold is expected to continue its uptrend.
At the technical level we can see that gold has broken its long-term downtrend, which began in September 2011, and now is in a short-term uptrend. As for the Pivot levels, gold passed through the third weekly resistance (R_3), making corrections and retracing to continue its way up to 1,790 dollars per ounce.
Momentum indicators and Range show signs of a possible downward correction.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for January 30, 2011
GBP/JPY reversed to the downside from 121.98 to develop corrective wave B of medium term uptrend. This wave is colored magenta in the chart, and is part of impulse wave A of a larger degree that is developing from 117.22. Now, this B wave has four subwaves (colored orange red in the chart) with corrective subwave 4 developing from 119.95.
The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 117.22-121.98, and expansions off 121.98-121.16-121.81, 121.81-119.95-120.67.
Supports:
- 119.66-60 = confluence area of super expanded objective point (SXOP) and .50 retracement
- 119.52 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 119.04 = .618 ret
- 118.81 = OP
However if the price reverses to the upside to continue the uptrend the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 121.98-119.95, 121.25-117.22, and expansions off 117.22-121.98-119.95.
Resistances:
- 120.73 = .382 retracement
- 120.97 = .50 ret
- 121.20 = .618 ret
- 122.24 = .50 ret
- 122.89 = COP
- 123.42 = .618 ret
Overbought/Oversold
The bigger wave is now moving down, therefore it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (10-15 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (35-50 pips above the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-201225
More analysis - at instaforex.com
AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for January 30, 2011
AUD/USD has reversed for a correction of impulse wave C of medium term uptrend (colored magenta in the chart) that started from 1.0427. This wave, however, is part of impulse wave C of a larger degree (colored royal blue in the chart) that started from 1.0231.
As far as the corrective move goes, its targets are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0231-1.0687, 1.0427-1.0687, and expansions off 1.0687-1.0591-1.0669, 1.0669-1.0596-1.0666.
Supports:
- 1.0557 = .50 retracement
- 1.0548 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0526 = .618 ret
- 1.0514-13 = confluence area of .382 ret andXOP
- 1.0475 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
However if the price breaks above 1.0687 to continue the uptrend we'll calculate the resistances using Fibonacci expansions off 1.0145-1.0377-1.0231, 1.0231-1.0573-1.0427.
Resistances:
- 1.0769 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0838 = SXOP
Overbought/Oversold
The larger wave is still moving up, so it's prefereable to open longs when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (15-30 pips below the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
EUR/JPY Elliott Wave Count for January 30, 2012
Market Overview
The EUR/JPY pair was following the bullish movement for the last 10 days. Today after the Asian has been opened session we could observe the slight descending movement of the pair and the breakdown of the 50EMA support at level 101.29. Then we could observe the breakdown of the 100EMA support at level 101.06 in early European session. We think that today the EUR/JPY pair is likely to brake 200EMA resistance level during the New York session. Also we expect the continuation of the downtrend for the next few days.
Support and Resistance
(S3)100.20 (S2)100.57 (S1)100.81 (PP)101.18 (R1)101.55 (R2)101.79 (R3)102.16
Important News
(EUR) German Prelim CPI m/m
(EUR) EU Economic Summit
EUR/JPY Elliott Wave Analysis
The EUR/JPY pair completed the wave B of the bigger wave (B) at the 101.44 level, and started the 5th wave within the final C wave. According to our wave rules and assuming that the wave C is equal to the wave A we can define our target points with Fibonacci Extension (102.19-100.56-101.44) to the 99.80 level. For Stop loss level we can use end of wave B at the level 101.44.
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules today we can expect the downward movement of the trend. That is why SHORT position at level 100.70 with Stop Loss at level 101.44 and Take Profit at level 99.80 are recommended.
Performed by Nicola Delic, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
GBP/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points for January 30 - February 3, 2012
The pivot point (PPV) is a support/resistance level. It considers the largest price movement that can occur within a particular price. The pivot points are used in many ways, but generally they help to determine the overall market trend and to identify entry and exit levels.
The charts of the weekly and monthly pivots can be used as a plan for trading on Forex as they help in identifying the possible points of entry and exit. It is recommended to use this tool with other indicators you prefer.
You can copy or save the weekly pivot levels for easy reference. You will be informed beforehand about the market fluctuations namely the rebound of the market or the change of a trend.
If you have a trading strategy system, the levels of pivots can help you to define the level for Take profit and Stop Loss orders.
BUY-deals are recommended at (S2) Support level 2; SELL-deals are recommended at (R_2) resistance level 2 and Take profit on the pivot point.
_____WEEKLY____
Weekly - R3 = 1.6028
Weekly - R2 = 1.5884
Weekly - R1 = 1.5805
Weekly Pivot = 1.5661
Weekly - S1 = 1.5582
Weekly - S2 = 1.5438
Weekly - S3 = 1.5359
_____MONTHLY____
Monthly - R3 = 1.6163
Monthly - R2 = 1.5968
Monthly - R1 = 1.5751
Monthly Pivot = 1.555
Monthly - S1 = 1.5374
Monthly - S2 = 1.5046
Monthly - S3 = 1.4668
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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EUR/USD Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points for January 30 - February 3, 2012
The pivot point (PPV) is a support/resistance level. It takes into account the largest price movement that can take place in a particular price. The pivot points are used in many ways, but generally they serve to determine the overall market trend and to identify the levels of entry and exit.
The charts of the weekly and monthly pivots can be used as a plan for trading on Forex as they help to identify the possible points of entry and exit. You can use this tool with other indicators you prefer.
You can copy or save the weekly pivot levels for easy reference. You will be given a notification beforehand concerning the market fluctuations as a rebound of the market or change of a trend.
If you have a trading strategy system, you can use the levels of pivots to define the level for Take profit and Stop Loss orders.
BUY-deals are recommended at (S2) Support level 2; SELL-deals are recommended at (R_2) resistance level 2 and Take profit on the pivot point.
____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 1.3704
Weekly - R2 = 1.3468
Weekly - R1 = 1.3344
Weekly Pivot = 1.3108
Weekly - S1 = 1.2984
Weekly - S2 = 1.2748
Weekly - S3 = 1.2624
____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 1.4066
Monthly - R2 = 1.3808
Monthly - R1 = 1.3374
Monthly Pivot = 1.3116
Monthly - S1 = 1.2682
Monthly - S2 = 1.2424
Monthly - S3 = 1.1990
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/CAD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, for January 30 - February 3, 2012
The pivot point (PPV) is a support/resistance level. It considers the largest price movement that can occur in a particular price. The pivot points are used in many ways, but generally are used to determine the overall market trend and to identify entry and exit levels.
In the charts of the weekly and monthly pivots they can be used as a plan for trading on Forex as it helps to identify possible points of entry and exit. It is recommended to use this tool, pivot points with other indicators you prefer.
You can copy or save the weekly pivot levels for easy reference. You will be informed beforehand about the market fluctuations namely the rebound of the market or the change of a trend.
If you have a trading strategy system, the levels of pivots can help you to define the level for Take profit and Stop Loss orders.
BUY-deals are recommended at (S2) Support level 2; SELL-deals are recommended at (R_2) resistance level 2 and Take profit on the pivot point.
____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 1.0303
Weekly - R2 = 1.0232
Weekly - R1 = 1.0124
Weekly Pivot = 1.0053
Weekly - S1 = 0.9945
Weekly - S2 = 0.9874
Weekly - S3 = 0.9766
____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 1.0773
Monthly - R2 = 1.0598
Monthly - R1 = 1.0401
Monthly Pivot = 1.0226
Monthly - S1 = 1.0029
Monthly - S2 = 0.9854
Monthly - S3 = 0.9657
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for January 31, 2011
AUD/USD has finished corrective subwave B (colored red in the chart) at 1.0525 (.618 retracement of subwave A), and now is developing potential impulse subwave C that is part of impulse wave C of a larger degree (colored magenta in the chart) that started from 1.0427.
Now the targets above the current price are Fibonacci expansions off 1.0145-1.0377-1.0231, 1.0231-1.0573-1.0427, 1.0427-1.0687-1.0525.
Resistances:
- 1.0686 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0769 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0785 = OP
- 1.0838 = SXOP
However if the price reverses down for a corrective wave of larger degree the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0427-1.0687, 1.0231-1.0687.
Supports:
- 1.0526 = .618 retracement
- 1.0513 = .382 ret
- 1.0459 = .50 ret
- 1.0405 = .618 ret
Overbought/Oversold
The larger wave is still moving up, so it's prefereable to open longs when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (5-10 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (30-45 pips below the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for January 31, 2011
GBP/JPY reversed to the downside from 121.98 to develop corrective wave B of medium term uptrend. This wave is colored magenta in the chart, and is part of impulse wave A of a larger degree that is developing from 117.22.
As of now the corrective wave has five subwaves (colored orange red in the chart), and potential corrective wave A is developing against the five waves from 119.53.
Now the targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 117.22-121.98, and expansions off 121.81-119.95-120.67.
Supports:
- 119.52 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 119.04 = .618 retracement
- 118.81 = objective point (OP)
- 117.66 = expanded objective point (XOP)
However if the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 121.98-119.53, 127.25-117.22, and expansions off 117.22-121.98-119.53.
Resistances:
- 120.47 = .382 retracement
- 120.76 = .50 ret
- 121.04 = .618 ret
- 122.24 = .50 ret
- 122.47 = COP
- 123.42 = .618 ret
Overbought/Oversold
The bigger wave is now moving down, therefore it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (15-20 pips above the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-201225
More analysis - at instaforex.com
Fundamental Analysis for January 31, 2012
After another summit 25 European countries made a decision to sign a new fiscal pact. According to this agreement the countries pledge not to spend money in the future.
The statement is not controversial: at least it is clear that there will be no overspendings so far. The commitment of the 3% deficit to GDP, signed at the time, has not found any support.
On the other hand, do these principles mean that the past is no more taking into account? No more spending from now, reasonable decisions and discipline. But who is going to pay for this?
While leaders participate in meetings and discussions approving the treaties that are quite similar, the unemployment rate reaches over 23 million.
There are countries on the brink of bankruptcy that is expected to occur in less than 60 days. But that is not the appropriate topic for discussion.
During the Monday's trading session the situation did not changed much except a very slight recovery of the dollar. The Wall Street shares (the main at least) hardly moved and reached the new low.
In this regard, the Tuesday’s European session was opened with remarkable results. Surprisingly, German retail sales fell 1.4%, which is the key event of the day as Germany is considered the engine of the continent. Therefore, this fact was the reason for significant concerns.
All these facts indicate the high probability of recession in Europe. Germany remains the only country that will avoid this.
Nevertheless, the euro zone again exceeds 1.32 in these times. The main stock exchanges, namely in Frankfurt, London and in Paris, represented by the DAX 30, FTSE 100 and DAX 30 are experiencing the ascending movement and can be considered a hope for some period of time.
On Tuesday the British pound and the euro have slightly increased along with the consumer confidence index in Britain, while the Swiss franc, faithful follower of the euro, also closed the deals at its monthly maximum.
It is necessary to mention that the most of the currencies initiated the upward movement during these last hours of the month, having closed at the same highs that do not correspond with the economic situation of their countries.
Generally, the Chicago PMI at 9:45 ET and the consumer confidence index released by the Conference Board at 10:00 ET is the crucial data for the American session.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for February 1, 2011
GBP/JPY reversed to the downside from 121.98 to develop corrective wave B of medium term uptrend (colored magenta in the chart). This wave has two subwaves (colored red in the chart) with subwave B still developing from 119.53. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 121.98-119.53, 127.25-117.22, and expansions off 117.22-121.98-119.53.
Resistances:
- 120.76 = .50 ret
- 121.04 = .618 ret
- 122.24 = .50 ret
- 122.47 = contracted objective point (COP)
If the price breaks below 119.53 to continue the downtrend the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 117.22-121.98, and expansions off 121.98-119.53-120.57.
Supports:
- 119.06-04 = confluence area of COP and .618 retracement
- 118.12 = objective point (OP)
Overbought/Oversold
The bigger wave is now moving down, therefore it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (5-10 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (25-35 pips above the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-201225
More analysis - at instaforex.com
AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for February 1, 2011
AUD/USD has finished the whole wave from 1.0231 to 1.0687, according to wave count it is impulse wave 3 (colored royal blue in the chart), and now potential corrective wave 4 is developing against the uptrend from 1.0687. Within this wave we have three subwaves (colored red in the chart) - A, B, and potential C. Subwave C will be confirmed when the price breaks below 1.0525 - top of subwave A.
Now the targets below are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0231-1.0687, and expansions off 1.0687-1.0525-1.0684.
Supports:
- 1.0522 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0513 = .382 retracement
- 1.0459 = .50 ret
- 1.0422 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0405 = .618 ret
However if the price breaks above 1.0687 to continue the uptrend the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci expansions off 1.0145-1.0377-1.0231, 1.0231-1.0687-1.0525.
Resistances:
- 1.0807 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0838 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 1.0981 = OP
Overbought/Oversold
The larger wave is now moving down, so it's prefereable to open short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (35-50 pips above the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com