InstaForex Wave Analysis - page 102
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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for January 16, 2012
GGBP/JPY is moving within impulse wave C of medium term downtrend (colored light green in the chart) that started from 122.71, and inside this wave there are three subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart), and impulse subwave C is still moving from 119.05. This wave has been confirmed as it broke below the top of wave A - 118.20.
The immediate supports are Fibonacci expansions off 120.14-118.20-119.05, 122.71-118.20-119.05, 119.05-117.45-118.13.
Supports:
- 117.14-11 = confluence area of contracted objective point (COP)
- 116.53 = objective point (OP)
- 116.26 = COP
- 115.91 = expanded objective point (XOP)
If the price reverses to the upside the targets above will be Fibonacci retracements of 119.05-117.22.
Resistances:
- 117.92 = .382 retracement
- 118.13 = .50 ret
- 118.35 = .618 ret
- 118.66 = .786 ret
Overbought/Oversold
The bigger wave is now moving down, so it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (10-20 pips above the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for January 16, 2012
AUD/USD is now moving within wave A of medium term downtrend that started from 1.0386 (colored light green in the chart). On smaller scale there are A and B subwaves (colored magenta in the chart), and potential subwave C is developing from 1.0377.
The targets below are Fibonacci retracements 1.0145-1.0377, and expansions off 1.0386-1.0145-1.0377, 1.0377-1.0289-1.0367, 1.0367-1.0231-1.0333.
Supports:
- 1.0249 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0228-25 = confluence area of COP and expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0197-95 = confluence area of objective point (OP) and .786 retracement
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci expansions off 1.0044-1.0386-1.0145, 1.0145-1.0377-1.0231.
Resistances:
- 1.0374 = COP
- 1.0463 = OP
- 1.0487 = OP
Overbought/Oversold
The larger wave is moving down (until 1.0386 is broken to the upside), therefore it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (20-30 pips above the current), watch for entries short at or near the indicated resistances.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for January 17, 2012
The pair is now trading in a narrow flat that according to wave count is subwave B (colored magenta in the chart - started at 117.22) of impulse wave C (colored royal blue in the chart - started at 119.05). Within the corrective wave B we have subwaves A, B, and C (colored yellow in the chart), with subwave C still developing from 117.31. Since the flat is very narrow we can expect a sharp break through either to bullish or to bearish side. Bearish is preferable since we're in a downtrend. In this case we'll have subwave C (the magenta wave) in impulse wave C (the royal blue one).
The targets below will be Fibonacci expansions off 120.14-118.20-119.05, 122.71-118.20-119.05.
Supports:
- 117.11 = objective point (OP)
- 116.26 = contracted (COP)
- 115.91 = expanded objective point (XOP)
If the corrective wave up resumes the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 119.05-117.22, and expansions off A and B subwaves (the yellow ones) 117.22-117.88-117.31.
Resistances:
- 117.92-97 = confluence area of .382 retracement and OP
- 118.18 = .50 ret
- 118.35-38 = .618 ret and XOP
- 118.66 = .786 ret
Overbought/Oversold
The bigger wave is now moving down, so it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (5-10 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (20-30 pips above the current prices). Watch for entries short at the indicated Fibonacci resistances.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for January 17, 2012
AUD/USD broke above 1.0386 and switched the trend to the bullish. As far as the wave structure is concerned, the pair is moving within impulse wave C of medium term uptrend (colored mangenta in the chart) that started from 1.0231. Notice that it is almost precisely 0.618 Fib support calculated from wave A 1.0145-1.0377.
Wave C that is developing now has its subwaves (colored orange red and yellow in the chart) - A, B, C, and still smaller A, B, and C that is developing from 1.0302 - the one that broke above 1.0386. A-B-C cycles are the waves we calculate Fibonacci expansions off.
The targets above are Fibonacci expansions off 1.0145-1.0377-1.0231, 1.0231-1.0333-1.0254, 1.0254-1.0337-1.0302.
Resistances:
- 1.0419 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0436 = XOP
- 1.0463 = objective point (OP)
Since the trend is bullish we are interested in supports, that can be used as our long entries. However now, as the wave up is not yet developed, we can not calculate any supports until the price reverses down considerably enough to project Fib retracements from the wave that started at 1.0231.
Overbought/Oversold
The larger wave is now moving up, therefore it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (25-30 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (50-65 pips below the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
USD/JPY Wave Analysis for January 17, 2012
Wave analysis:
Yesterday during the Pacific trading session the USD/JPY pair failed to break down the level of the figure 77. As a result by the end of the day the price has dropped to 76.70. Despite the decrease the pair is still able to develop the wave structure of an uprising 3rd wave (or wave C). At the same time it is necessary to keep in mind that despite the positive MACD the European crisis (or in case it is lessened) can make unexpected corrections in the present wave situation.
Targets for the variant with wave 2 or B (supposedly completed).
76.60 – lower limit of the sideways channel
General conclusions and trading recommendations:
The current movement may change to a 5-wave formation of a supposedly new ascending part of a trend. During the previous trading day the wave picture has hardly changed. If this suggestion is true, it is possible to see an increase of the pair to 77.39 responding to 50.0% of Fibonacci and 77. 59 which is equal to 38.2% of Fibonacci within the wave 3 or from ascending part of a trend.
The pair did not manage to remain lower than 76.55 that is why the main direction of the movement remains rising to the upper limit of the sideways channel. The convergence of MACD entirely supports the variant with the development of ascending movement.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for January 18, 2012
On Tuesday GBP/JPY slightly broke above previous resistance 118.13 - only to form subwave C (colored yellow in the chart) within wave A of bigger degree (colored orange red in the chart). Now we have subwave B developing from 118.21, that is part of wave B of larger degree developing from 117.22.
However if the price breaks below 117.22 - we'll have wave C from 118.21, that will be part of wave C of still larger degree, that is developing from 119.05 (this one is colored royal blue in the chart). In this case the targets below will be Fibonacci expansions off 122.71-118.20-119.05, 120.14-118.20-119.05, 119.05-117.22-118.21.
Supports:
- 117.11-08 = confluence area of objective point (OP) and contracted objective point (COP)
- 116.38 = OP
- 116.26 = COP
- 115.91 = expanded objective point (XOP)
But if the corrective wave resumes and the price keeps moving up we'll have the following resistances as targets - retracements of 119.05-117.22:
- 118.35 = .618 retracement
- 118.66 = .786 ret
Overbought/Oversold
The bigger wave is now moving down, therefore it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (15-20 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (35-45 pips above the current prices). Watch for entries short at or near the indicated Fibonacci resistances.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for January 18, 2012
AUD/USD broke above 1.0386 to show wave C of medium term uptrend (this one is colored magenta in the chart, and started from 1.0231). As this wave progresses the targets above may be Fibonacci expansions off A-B waves 1.0145-1.0377-1.0231, and also subwaves A and B (they're colored red in the chart) 1.0231-1.0449-1.0354.
If the price breaks above 1.0449 we'll have full grown subwave C (from 1.0354) that is part of wave C of larger degree (from 1.0231).
The immediate resistances:
- 1.0463 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0489 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0572 = OP
- 1.0606 = expanded objective point (XOP)
However if corrective subwave B continues (from 1.0449), we'll calculate immediate supports using Fibonacci retracements from 1.0145-1.0449, 1.0231-1.0449.
Immediate supports:
- 1.0366 = .382 retracement
- 1.0340-33 = confluence area of .50 ret and .382 ret
- 1.0314 = .618 ret
- 1.0297 = .50 ret
- 1.0261 = .618 ret
Overbought/Oversold
The larger wave is still going up, so it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (25-35 pips below the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
Fundamental Analysis, January 19, 2012
With ups and downs, but with some firmness in the last hours, the recovery of European currencies against the dollar continues, which still falls, now more slowly, on all fronts.
The euro, following the major indexes in Europe, returning to operating profit during the meeting on Thursday, managed to overcome, for now in a transitional area, to consolidate its short-term uptrend.
In the daily charts, the price has also passed a bass line, although this break, which occurred on Wednesday, will probably not find a strong upward velocity, given that in the very short term, and imposes a correction to the contrary.
However, the single currency is moving away from its minimum of 16 months hit on Monday on the Asian session, and without much difficulty could reach 1.30 during the day on Thursday afternoon, American, or on Friday.
The currencies linked to oil are also greatly enforced. The Canadian dollar seems once again to reach parity against the dollar, while the Mexican peso collapsed and the support of 13.30 in the last hours, a value which will violate sustainably.
Meanwhile, a very negative jobs report in Australia put a break on the Aussie. It went well beyond 1.04, but got stuck at that level now, having learned that in December, nearly 30,000 jobs were lost in the country.
The New Zealand dollar also goes through a hard day. Retail inflation data which was lower than expected changed its short-term uptrend, at present a downward correction is seen.
From a fundamental standpoint, discussions between the government of Greece and various private creditors who must respond in the short term, added to the retail inflation data and to weekly jobless requests, both in the U.S. to 8:30 EST. At 10:00 the index will be published in the Philadelphia Fed lately with little or no impact on prices, and 10:30, the weekly oil inventories.
For Greece, returning again to the issue of that it has many unfulfilled agreements, it is difficult to believe in a sustainable solution, it is speculated that during the weekend favorable resolution to the debt problem can be reached.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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The EUR/USD Wave Analysis for January 19, 2012
Wave analysis:
During the yesterday’s trading session the EUR/USD pair continued ascending thus forming the internal 5-wave structure of the wave A belonging to the current upward correction. Regarding the inner dimension of the wave A we can suggest that it will finish the development near the last day’s maximums. After this the currency pair is to decrease within the limits of the prospective correctional wave B. At the same time concerning the current dynamics of the quote growth the top of the wave A will be probably located near the figure 29 or even near the level 1.2970.
Targets for the variant with the wave A:
1.2900 – downward trend line
1.2973 – 38,2% according to Fibonacci
Targets for the variant with the wave B:
1.2728 – 11.4% according to Fibonacci
General conclusions and trading recommendations:
On Wednesday the pair continued the formation of the uprising corrective part of a trend. Proceeding from the general wave picture we can suggest with some restraints that the global descending trend is completed. However, the fact that the price is still within the limits of the down channel indicates that the downward part of a trend is still active. Also the weakness of the present euro can turn the pair downwards forming a new part of descending trend. At the moment the wave with the target 1.2973 is likely to be formed responding to 38.2 % according to Fibonacci. The inner dimension of the wave A indicates the possible quote decline within the wave B almost from the current levels.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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EUR/USD Bearish Outlook, January 19, 2011 (Daily Strategy)
EUR/USD
The pair euro - U.S. dollar followed the major indexes in Europe, returning to operating profit during Thursday's session; the pair managed to overcome, only on a temporary basis, the area of 1.29, to consolidate its upward trend short-term.
On a technical level, on H4 chart we can see that the pair is above the first weekly resistance (1.2830). Given that the pair has upward force, your next objective is 1.3000, it should be noted that the euro has passed a short-term bearish line, although this break, which occurred on Wednesday, will probably not find a strong upward velocity, we believe the level of 1.2980 resistance and 200-day moving average. Cruising around 1.3000 will be a strong barrier that the pair will have to overcome. Therefore, we can sell at these levels of resistance with a short-term objective at 1.2760 (which stands for 61.8% Fibonacci retracement).
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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NZD/USD Bearish Outlook, January 19, 2011 (Daily Strategy)
NZD/USD
The New Zealand dollar - U.S. dollar pair continues recovering from last night due to a temporary increase in the level of risk assumed by investors and as a result of the reduction of fear on markets.
On a technical level, we believe that the rise of this pair will not be long, it still has to close the gap downwards, left without coverage on November 25, 2011. On the other hand, the pair is below the moving average for over 200 sessions, although yesterday it was able to overcome this level, in today's session it is below this level.
We believe that the pair has to decline again to lows of 0.7620 and may be seen even lower. We enter selling at these levels or wait for a pullback to 0.8080 (R_2) a break in the uptrend line will bring a slowdown in the pair. Our objective is bearish so we can place the last support around 0.7620. The level of stop loss should be placed at 0.8200.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
Fundamental Analysis, January 20, 2012
The U.S. economic data released on Thursday, a drop in weekly unemployment requests in particular, gave a new impetus to market that started to search for assets, weakening the dollar.
The rise of the euro yesterday, accompanied by the British pound, the franc and the ensuing decline in the yen (which acts almost par with the dollar) is mainly due to that fact.
However, the single currency has lost some speed in the last hours, but without losing the short-term uptrend.
The bags of the old continent did not have a good day, however. The main operating rates lower, with losses ranging in the order of 0.7%. But with reference to the approaching weekend and the definition of the problem of debt ahead of Greece, these rates may be due to profit taking, a week very positive for the major European papers.
The news agenda on Friday include the retail price index in Canada, at 7:00 Eastern, and a key figure for the U.S. economy: sales of existing homes, at 10:00. It is speculated that the figure will publish the best since May 2010, thus giving a new signal of encouragement to the recovery of the world's largest economy.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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NATURAL GAS (#NG) Rebound January 20, 2012 (Daily Strategy)
NATURAL GAS (# NG)
Natural gas futures are trading at $ 2,310 per million British thermal units during the American session, since the beginning of the fall in June 2011 the natural gas is at historic lows. With 8-month downtrend, the # NG has the Rollover on January 22, 2012, we believe that these changes in contracts, at least give a correction of all downward trend that leads. Our goal in this exercise - we will place upward just at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement about 2,906
In addition, Momentum indicators and range, show marked signs of oversold.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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GBP/USD Bullish Outlook, Juanary 20, 2011 (Daily Strategy)
GBP/USD
The British pound - U.S. dollar passed the first weekly resistance, which coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, you can expect further increases of the pair up to $ 1.5590, representing 38.2%, then this level will have to be a downward correction to 1.5350.
We can buy at these levels of support with a medium-term goal to 1.5630 US dollars per pound. We will place a stop loss below the zone of weekly pivot.
The indicators show bullish trend in the short and medium term.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com
AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for January 23, 2011
AUD/USD broke the upper border of the range (1.0449) to continue the uptrend. According to wave count we have wave C of medium term uptrend developing from 1.0231 (colored royal blue in the chart), and there's a variety of subwaves within this wave. There are A, B and C subwaves (colored magenta in the chart) with subwave C still developing from the lower border of the range - 1.0354. Inside this subwave there are waves of still smaller degree - impulse subwave C is developing from 1.0370 (colored red in the chart).
The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci expansions off A-B waves and subwaves: 1.0145-1.0377-1.0231, 1.0231-1.0449-1.0354, and 1.0354-1.0436-1.0370, 1.0370-1.0433-1.0382, 1.0382-1.0493-1.0458.
Resistances:
- 1.0503 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0527 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0547 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 1.0569-72 = confluence area of two objective points (OP)
But if the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave up from 1.0354 - this wave is not developed yet, so no supports are available so far.
Overbought/Oversold
The larger wave is still going up, that's why it's prefereable to open longs when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (20-25 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (35-45 pips below the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis - at instaforex.com