TMA&Cycles - page 11
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Hi ValeoFX
thanks for template.
But I miss the channels and the magenta TMA.
Whitch versions of indi do you use?I use the same indicator, but for the higher TFs, I just renamed the indicator to LTF hence the absence of the ones you are looking for. Just add the 2 you are looking for using the same indicator. Reason I do it is during compiling the indicators jump back to default.
Sorry for the confusion.
Tma usdjpy
Hello Simba,
time to buy usdjpy i suggest that setting is clear...
will see what happen...
...
cmeldatrader, was glad to see a stop loss in the pic you posted. That was quite a ride down in the crosses last night, wow. Took the gbpjpy long at 139.60 after the crash, looking good so far, shooting for the 4hr TMA midline as a TP. Currently sitting at 146.82 on my chart.
So how is everyone doing with their TMA trading? Love this style of trading, it has taken a lot of guesswork out of the equation for me at least as far as entry points go. (not counting last nights madness of course).
Regards,
Zipfrog
cmeldatrader, was glad to see a stop loss in the pic you posted. That was quite a ride down in the crosses last night, wow. Took the gbpjpy long at 139.60 after the crash, looking good so far, shooting for the 4hr TMA midline as a TP. Currently sitting at 146.82 on my chart.
So how is everyone doing with their TMA trading? Love this style of trading, it has taken a lot of guesswork out of the equation for me at least as far as entry points go. (not counting last nights madness of course).
Regards,
ZipfrogExcellent trades you all was too busy stuffing my face yesterday
to even think about trading 
anyway looking at hi and h4 bands on gbpjpy and using Hurst methodology possibly this upmove will continue till roughly 146.182 area + or - 10%, looks like couple areas of resistance till there, with big resistance there.Will be interesting to see what happens!!!
Thanks for the TP advice Tools, appreciate it! Still have a belly full of turkey myself....burp.
I have found using midpoint of the longer term TMA to be a good TP point, even on shorter timeframes. It can leave a bit of profit on the table, but it acts kind of like an inverse chandelier trailing stop if price is moving against your position and can result in some small profit or BE on counter trend trades that might otherwise scare you and result in a larger loss. Kind of like an all in one TP and SL.
Zipfrog
Thanks for the TP advice Tools, appreciate it! Still have a belly full of turkey myself....burp.
I have found using midpoint of the longer term TMA to be a good TP point, even on shorter timeframes. It can leave a bit of profit on the table, but it acts kind of like an inverse chandelier trailing stop if price is moving against your position and can result in some small profit or BE on counter trend trades that might otherwise scare you and result in a larger loss. Kind of like an all in one TP and SL.
ZipfrogKnow exactly what your saying and more than likely very good move on your part probably would have done the same, weekend coming up, trend for last couple weeks down,etc.,and still you got probably couple hundred pips,
very good trade.
Jpy
cmeldatrader, was glad to see a stop loss in the pic you posted. That was quite a ride down in the crosses last night, wow. Took the gbpjpy long at 139.60 after the crash, looking good so far, shooting for the 4hr TMA midline as a TP. Currently sitting at 146.82 on my chart.
So how is everyone doing with their TMA trading? Love this style of trading, it has taken a lot of guesswork out of the equation for me at least as far as entry points go. (not counting last nights madness of course).
Regards,
ZipfrogZipfrog,
Congratulations on your trade,your entry was excellent.
Some comments regarding JPY pairs.
These pairs have sudden increases in volatility,so,they are prone,as we saw these past days,to heavier crossing of the bands,so,my suggestion is to use D1 timeframe for trend evaluation...AND..price action in both h4 and D1...
Question1...for GBPJPY D1...Since,9th November,How many bars have closed above the previous day high?...Answer:None....D1 Trend is DOWN
Question2...For GBPJPY H4..since 9th November,in H4,How many sells could you have entered when price touched the upper band,with what risk and where would you have put your TP?..Answer,if you are really interested,do a visual tester,replaying that period in h4
....and,if daily trend is down,h4 target can be located at the h4 lower band.
Question3...Since this Monday`s high..how many H4 bars closed above the previous bar high?..Answer 2..Both on Friday,the first one closed at 142.05(depending on platform time this will change for h4)and that should have triggered an entry by price action for those of us that work on h4...So,H4 has crossed the bands and have given a pa entry signal,which means that the H4 trend is very probably UP.
Question4...Since we had price action in h4 and crossing of the lower bands both at d1 and h4...Could it be that the D1 trend has changed to UP?Answer...NO,the downtrend probably is exhausted,but this just means we may be in a no trend situation for D1,which is ideally played with the H4 bands.
And the final question
..If H4 trend is probably up,how would you play it with bands at H1? 
Hope this helped.
S
Hi Simba,
Thanks for the analysis, I appreciate your input on this trade a great deal. The volatilty was crazy on the 4 hr chart, 500 pips below the lower long term TMA, but touched the lower long term band nicely on the daily chart before the bounce. That was the reason for my entry long.
As for question #1: I totally agree that the long term daily trend is down (or at least was, not sure if it will reverse here).
Question #2: I show no short trades on the 4hr gbpjpy since Nov 9, never touched my longer term TMA at all.
Question #3: On my 4 hr gbpjpy chart, price is still below the longer term TMA lower band by approximately 120 pips. Wonder if you would be so kind as to post a pic of your Daily and 4 hr charts of the gbpjpy so I can compare them to mine, might be my settings?
Question #4: I agree that the downtrend on the daily may be exhausted and we may be in a period of consolidation.
Sooooo.... if I had to predict future price action this week I would lean towards sideways with a slightly bearish outlook. So if we are looking at sideways price action on the dailies, then I agree this would be best played out on the 4 hr to maximize profit, and possibly the hourly to pick the moment and maybe get out on a bounce.
Thanks for taking the time to share your insight, any other thoughts are most welcome and appreciated!
Regards,
Zipfrog
Forgot to mention: This is the 4th test of the 140 price point since it was broken early in the year, the first was on April 28th, 2nd on Sept 27th and the 3rd was on Oct 7th. I was watching that October set-up for a long reversal and was annoyed at missing my long entry at the time. SO the big question is, does that mean solid support at 140 or is price going to beat down that door?
Bigger question
Hi Simba,
Thanks for the analysis, I appreciate your input on this trade a great deal. The volatilty was crazy on the 4 hr chart, 500 pips below the lower long term TMA, but touched the lower long term band nicely on the daily chart before the bounce. That was the reason for my entry long.
As for question #1: I totally agree that the long term daily trend is down (or at least was, not sure if it will reverse here).
Question #2: I show no short trades on the 4hr gbpjpy since Nov 9, never touched my longer term TMA at all.
Question #3: On my 4 hr gbpjpy chart, price is still below the longer term TMA lower band by approximately 120 pips. Wonder if you would be so kind as to post a pic of your Daily and 4 hr charts of the gbpjpy so I can compare them to mine, might be my settings?
Question #4: I agree that the downtrend on the daily may be exhausted and we may be in a period of consolidation.
Sooooo.... if I had to predict future price action this week I would lean towards sideways with a slightly bearish outlook. So if we are looking at sideways price action on the dailies, then I agree this would be best played out on the 4 hr to maximize profit, and possibly the hourly to pick the moment and maybe get out on a bounce.
Thanks for taking the time to share your insight, any other thoughts are most welcome and appreciated!
Regards,
Zipfrog
Forgot to mention: This is the 4th test of the 140 price point since it was broken early in the year, the first was on April 28th, 2nd on Sept 27th and the 3rd was on Oct 7th. I was watching that October set-up for a long reversal and was annoyed at missing my long entry at the time. SO the big question is, does that mean solid support at 140 or is price going to beat down that door?Hahahaha,I like your style....
The big answer is that,at this stage,as long as h4 doesn`t close below previous low(139.29 by memory) or above the UPPER TMA Band,the H4 trend is up...
My bands too were surpassed by price,the reason why is that price changes do not follow a normal probability distribution,they follow(most of the time) a lognormal one,and this means that events that "should happen" 1 in 6 thousand years,like 5 of six sigma deviations,actually happen 6 times a year
...In theory,the bands should work>90% of the time with equal reward to risk...In practical terms,think of the bands as something that usually work fairly well(let`s say 65% of the time),but when they do not work(35% of the time) you should exit inmediately,because the risk can be practically unlimited(like 10 times your expected reward),and this means that the only way to get positive expectancy is to control the risk,so,the best RR entry is always the one that puts you on the side where the orderflow is stronger,and that means,usually,as far as I know,using Price action to trigger the entry,even if at a worse entry price....and using hard stops approximately equal to your expected target
Now,Having seen what can happen even at h4 and d1 timeframes...Do you understand why I insisted on not using bands below h1?...Can you imagine using them on m5 the past week?...Think about it
Regards
S
biggest question
Simba,
I completely understand and respect your thoughts on lower timeframes for TMA's. While I am not a proponent of them I must confess I use them on the 5 min for scalping myself when I am bored with pretty good success. But also tempered with logic. And like any vocation, logic and reason is the difference between success and failure.
So my advice, as is yours is NOT to use TMA's on short term charts, do as I say, not as I do, lol.
Regards,
Zipfrog
And as always Simba, thank you for you thoughts, and especially, thank you for making me think!